Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-22 17:22:00

Constituency Profile


Clary, Bill

Goodale, Ralph

Shields, Ian

Spooner, Marc

Hon. Ralph Goodale

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • wascana (162/162 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    As much as the Tories would love to sweep Saskatchewan, Ralph Goodale is just too popular to realistically lose this. He played a strong role in pushing for the government to block the Potash takeover so even if it looks unlikely that the Liberals will win the next election, he has shown himself to be a strong MP both in government and opposition. Also 90% of the polls are in Regina while the Tories already won the 10% of the polls in the rural areas by huge margins last time around so they could get 100% of the votes in the rural polls and still not win this. Once Ralph Goodale retires, then I agree this riding will be up for grabs.
    11 04 14 binriso
    You know if Goodale didnt run here the Liberals would be a distant third, and his popularity probably helps all ridings for the Liberals in Saskatchewan. If he didnt run they would likely be in single digits provincewide like Alberta and may lose enough votes to put the NDP over the top in a couple seats, though the NDP may win a riding this time anyways.
    11 04 09 C.A.B.
    Perhaps the most blatant example of a personal fiefdom in all of Canada. Without Ralph Goodale, the Liberals would probably come in a poor third here, as they do elsewhere in Saskatchewan. With him, it's the safest Liberal seat in all of Western Canada, no question.
    11 04 03 Michael Fox
    If Ralpha Goodale ever leaves politics, this one might switch hands, but for now, it's staying Liberal.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    The only non-Tory seat in Saskatchewan and no doubt the Tories would love to win this, the problem is Ralph Goodale is very popular and is good at appealing to both soft NDP and soft Tory voters. Also this riding is 90% urban with only 10% rural so despite the fact the Tories will probably rack up big margins in the rural portions, it will have less impact than in other ridings. The only problem is the Saskatchewan Party did do well in some of the Regina ridings in this riding and are even more popular now as well as each election, Ralph Goodale has seen his margins cut. I would say there is a 90% chance of him holding this, but still not a guarantee.
    11 04 01 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Inside Regina
    L - 15942
    C - 11402
    N - 5014
    G - 1593
    Outside Regina
    C - 1396
    L - 1086
    N - 404
    G - 113
    11 03 31 EP-1975
    Ralph is a good guy and while I don't share his ideology, he looks like Winston Churchill next to Saskatchewan's other 12 troglodyte MP's.
    Ralph wins by a bajillion votes.
    11 03 22 Marco Ricci
    Doesn't look like the Conservatives are targeting this riding this time. Last time they picked a high-profile candidate well in advance of the election. This time it appears they don't even have a candidate yet. Looks like the Conservative target seats this time are mainly in Ontario and British Columbia.
    09 09 07 Scott D
    Last election some were speculating that Goodale would be defeated in a close race but on election night Goodale was re-elected with a safe margin. The Conservative party were able to increase their support but not enough to come close to defeating Goodale. Goodale will be re-elected in the next election. Goodale seems to be the only Liberal in Saskatchewan who knows how to win and is popular both in his riding and across Canada. Goodale wins on his own popularity.
    09 09 05 MF
    Obviously Wascana is Ralph Goodale's personal seat, not a Liberal seat, in a province where the federal Liberals are practically nonexistent. It's his as long as he wants it.
    09 09 05 MF
    Obviously Wascana is Ralph Goodale's personal seat, not a Liberal seat, in a province where the federal Liberals are practically nonexistent. It's his as long as he wants it.
    09 09 03 Stevo
    Only this and Anita Neville's Winnipeg North-Centre stand between a full eviction of Liberal MPs from the three Prairie provinces, and Wascana is the more secure of the two. Goodale's margin might dip once more as the trends suggest (even with a new Liberal leader) but he will almost certainly be re-elected.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    I wouldn't be sure that this is safe for Goodale. He had his lowest percentage since the election in 2000 last year, dropping 5.7% to a less than 4,500 vote lead. This could be a real battle this time. Although, the Tories may be content to let him have it, as they're likely to retain the rest of the province.
    09 08 20 SaskPhoenix
    As long as Ralph Goodale is still the MP for Wascana, this riding will stay Liberal red matching the colour of a Coca Cola pop can in a sea of Pepsi blue Conservative-held province. Prediction: Ralph Goodale cruises to another easy win and return to Ottawa as MP and likely cabinet minister if Ignatieff wins the election.
    11 04 28 Efrem
    Goodale is an institution, of course. But if the Liberals really are in a state of electoral collapse, might he not be so safe? It's a heretical thought, but in certain situations personal popularity only goes so far. Just a thought.

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