Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour

Prediction Changed
2015-10-11 00:09:47

Constituency Profile


Chisholm, Robert

Cole, Jason

Fisher, Darren

Nheiley, Brynn

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
   (215/223 polls, 97.75% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Robert Chisholm

   Sackville-Eastern Shore
   (8/223 polls, 2.25% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Peter Stoffer


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15 10 11 M
With the Liberals polling over 50% in Atlantic Canada, only a couple of NDP members that may survive. Tories are facing a complete shutout in Atlantic Canada. My feeling is that this seat is one the NDP is about to lose.
15 10 02 Marco Ricci
According to the latest polling, the Liberal lead has grown in the Maritimes over the course of the campaign, and the NDP numbers have dropped off. (In fact, today's Nanos shows the NDP falling behind CPC in the Atlantic region).
This riding may come down to the local strength of Chisholm vs. Fisher, but right now the higher Trudeau numbers nationally and the decreasing Mulcair numbers give the Liberals a better chance of winning here than they had going into the Summer. Riding now leaning Liberal in seat projections.
Nanos - Atlantic
LPC - 53.7
CPC - 22.2
NDP - 19.4
15 10 03 Craig Hubley
Shifting my call from NDP hold to TCTC. Normally NDP incumbents do well in Nova Scotia, but Chisholm has nowhere near the media visibility of Stouffer or Leslie. The NDP are actually victims of their own success in Atlantic Canada: An early surge convinced them to spread their energies, donors, volunteers, Mulcair visits, too thin. Now they are dropping in the polls and out of resources and not able to take what they thought was already theirs. What they *SHOULD* do is pull back to incumbent and long term build seats, and abandon hopeless causes like Cumberland-Colchester, West Nova, Fredericton, Miramachi-Grand Lake, Tobique-Mactaquac, etc. and Central Nova too. Just try to hold Leslie, Stouffer, Chisholm and pick up South Shore St. Margaret's, and in NB hold Acadie-Bathurst and take Fundy Royal and maybe one of Saint John -- Rothesay or NB Southwest, but not both. But this is the kind of decision the NDP has great trouble making due to its overly decentralized and provincially-entangled structure. Sad.
But it's going to cost the NDP more to have this last minute slip in the polls than it costs other parties, because they can't respond to it well. Their party structure and history demands they run to win even in totally hopeless ridings, even if it makes them enemies. That means they cannot pull back the troops to save Chisholm, so I can't call this one for them.
It's too bad really, he's a nice guy.
15 10 03 Atlantic Election Guy
The very first post stated that if the NDP lose Dartmouth, they are done. Well, it's not that bad, but it looks like this riding will be going red again. Chisholm is a good local MP, but so was Mike Savage when he lost last election. With the Liberals polling above 45% in the Maritimes, I expect this riding to change yet again.
15 09 18 John
There is still a month to go in the campaign. And it is a tight national race.
There is a danger of reading too much into the national numbers. After all, way back in the early 1990s, the media wrote off the Reform Party based on national numbers, not realizing the Reform vote was heavily concentrated in western Canada.
The fight here will be between the Liberals and the NDP. Because the Maratimes tend to be more of a Liberal stronghold, watch the Liberals pick this one up.
15 09 01 Marco Ricci
Latest polls show NDP support dropping, and Liberal support rising. The Liberals have a substantial lead in Atlantic Canada according to the latest polls, with the NDP 2nd, and the CPC way down in 3rd.
Late August Abacus numbers for Atlantic: LPC 47, NDP 31, CPC 19
Late August EKOS numbers for Atlantic: LPC 45, NDP 34, CPC 14
As Abacus reported yesterday, NDP support has dropped 5 points in the Atlantic region since their previous poll:
There is still the potential for a close race in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour until we see local numbers telling us differently.
15 08 31 Balon
Marco, at the time I made my last post, the Grits and Dippers were within 3 points of each other in Atlantic Canada on CBC's poll tracker. That gap has now widened significantly, so at this moment I would agree that this riding is once again close.
I still give the edge here to Chisholm, however. In an election where the mood is ABC, I think most of the big Liberal uptick (13% in the region over the 2011 results) will show up mostly in areas where the NDP are historically non-entities (PEI, non-Avalon Nfld, rural NB, Fundy and Northumberland coasts in NS). But the polls also have the NDP up in the region (3% over 2011), and as long as Mulcair looks like the next PM, ridings like this one and St. John's South will probably remain NDP.
15 08 29 Marco Ricci
Balon, the rest of Atlantic Canada and the country is *not* swinging to the NDP. The NDP are doing well, but there's still a close race going on between all 3 parties Nationally, and in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals still lead.
This week's polls showed the Liberals gaining ground and closing the National gap with the NDP, and overtaking the Conservatives in Ipsos & Forum. Yesterday's EKOS poll showed the Liberals more than 10 points ahead of the NDP in Atlantic Canada:
In fact, 308 currently shows this riding as a 69% chance of going Liberal. (August 29, 2015):
So this riding is still TCTC.
15 08 21 Balon
I've been trying to imagine how it could play out that Dartmouth reverts to the Liberals while the rest of Atlantic Canada (and the country) swings to the NDP, and I just don't see it. True, it's happened before - Dartmouth East turfed its NDP incumbent for Liberal Andrew Younger while Darrell Dexter was winning his historic majority in 2009.
In his second political incarnation, Robert Chisholm may not be a huge star for the Dippers, but if he was good enough to knock off someone as high-profile as Mike Savage in 2011, are the voters really going to dump him for councillor/deputy mayor Darren Fisher? Especially in light of the recent NDP by-election win in Dartmouth South, which isn't at all the most NDP part of the (federal) riding?
And let's get over the provincial NDP loss. Dexter's base abandoned him in 2013 because he governed like a Liberal. The NDP still got 27% of the vote provincially (more than the Tories) and 31% in Metro, and that was two whole years ago. If recent polls can be believed, the federal NDP brand is doing just fine on the East Coast (between 30 and 45%, depending who you read) and will be doing a lot better in the Halifax municipality.
15 08 17 Canadian Election Atlas
If the NDP loses one seat in October, it will be this one. Nothing against Chisolm or anything, it would just be a reversion to the mean. The NDP brand is still hurting in Nova Scotia, and that alone will cost him the seat, which was very close in 2011.
One glimmer of hope for Chisholm is the fact that the NSNDP won a by-election in Dartmouth South recently, which was a pick up from the Liberals. It is perhaps a sign that the NDP brand is improving in Metro Halifax.
15 08 12 Monkey Cheese
The Liberals appear to have rebounded in Atlantic Canada following Trudeau's strong debate performance. This is another riding that they have very strong support at the expense of the Conservatives who are free falling in the region. TCTC is probably the right call until the final stages of the campaign, but I will not be surprised if dissatisfied Tories vote for the Liberals to keep the NDP out of DCH.
15 08 10 Craig Hubley
Still calling this NDP but less certainly. Liberal numbers lasted longer in Atlantic Canada than elsewhere but there's a long steady slide towards NDP.
However, a side effect is that the NDP is now competitive in Cumberland -Colchester and Central Nova and senses a landslide in South Shore St. Margaret's. This dilutes cross-riding donations, volunteers, vote swaps and co-voting arrangements ('I'll get my church group to go vote Liberal if you get yours to go vote NDP over there') across party lines. The situation is similar to that between the NDP and Greens in Victoria, Esquimault and Burnaby North Seymour in BC: No clear front runner in each riding due to the many shifts, thus very hard to make any obvious anti-Harper arrangement even among very close and trusted friends/family.
Greens are not a factor. They have nominated the provincial Green Party leader Brynn Nheiley whose name I just learned now, because despite being a heavy media watcher in Nova Scotia, she has never got any press, ever, under her or prior leader John Percy
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Another Atlantic Lib-NDP battle. Right now the numbers are favoring the Liberals who are still popular in the Atlantic. This is another riding where the Conservatives have no chance due to Harper's unpopularity in this region.
15 07 24 Mad Caper
I have been waiting for a number of weeks now to see if the New Democratic Party numbers would continue to hold or increase and it appears clear now that Robert Chisholm is definitely well placed to retain his seat in Dartmouth Cole Harbour. With the steady decline in Liberal fortunes in the Atlantic Provinces in general and Nova Scotia in particular this seat is only one of a number of Liberal and Tory seats that have become winnable for the New Democrats, those being S.S.S.M., Central Nova and possibly Halifax West where the point spread is only about 11 points which is only a 5 1/2 point turn around based on the fact that most of the N.D.P. support would have to come from the Liberals due to the weak base for the Tories this time around. Add to that the fact that Robert Chisholm is noted as a great constituency man and is very personally popular I think adds up to a very winnable seat. Hold for the New Democrats.
15 07 23 RJC
Given the decline in Liberal fortunes (and the not-unrelated rise in NDP support), and the psychological boost the NDP has likely received from narrowly winning the Dartmouth South provincial byelection last week, I am now inclined to say that, if the election were held tomorrow, Chisholm would hang on.
15 07 23 Atlantic Election Guy
This definitely should be under the TCTC category. The recent provincial by-election saw the Liberals lose this seat to the NDP and, with the recent dip in the Liberals Atlantic numbers, this will be a two horse race until election day.
15 07 18 A.S.
Until the Mulcair rise started to eat even into Justin's built-in Maritime advantage, Chisholm looked like the deadest of all Maritime NDP dead ducks--sure, a former near-Premier, but also a bit on Alexa's federal coattails, and he didn't win by much in '11, and his subsequent federal leadership bid was an abortive disaster, and the provincial Darrell Dexter balloon being punctured in the interim; for all anyone knew, he could have wound up a 1993-BC-incumbent-style third. Now, the very least you can say is that he's in contention again--and the topsy-turvy fact that the NSNDP *gained* that seat in the byelection while losing its pair in Cape Breton definitely fuels the possibilities. But given the respective political histories, what does that byelection swap mean--the NSNDP (and by extension its federal parent) = the new Red Tories? Not a bad place to be, on the whole...
15 07 17 Expat
Overall I was very happy with the recent huge update in Election Prediction projections, and agree almost overwhelmingly with the calls. However, there were 3 that stood out as premature or unlikely, and this was the 2nd (the 1st was the Conservative Steven Fletcher riding in Manitoba now being TCTC, but many have already commented on that). The other is a more marginal call I'll wait for further polling to comment on.
The two overwhelming reasons for a Liberal call in this riding have been 1) the Liberal dominance in Atlantic Canada, and 2) people pointing to the provincial Dartmouth-Cole Harbour results. Neither of these now hold. The NDP just won the provincial by-election counterpart, and the most recent polls for the region have been trending against the Liberals. For example, todays poll has the NDP now ahead in Atlantic Canada in general, never mind for an urban Nova Scotia riding with a well-known incumbent MP against a new challenger.
Reference: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/317/conservatives-fall-back-tied-with-liberals
15 07 15 Mr. Dave
The Liberals lost a provincial by-election in one of the four constituencies that make up the federal riding of Dartmouth-Cole Harbour on July 15th to the NDP, albeit narrowly (81 votes).
This will be a huge psychological boost to the NDP in their campaign to re-elect Robert Chisholm.
15 04 10 westnovascotian
The NDP should be able to hold on to this riding. Chisholm beat Savage who is higher profile than Fisher for the Liberals. Redistribution of this riding also gives a slight advantage to the NDP. Unless the Liberal vote share in Nova Scotia increases substantially, should remain in NDP hands.
15 04 10 RC
If the polls in Nova Scotia look at the time of the election anything like they how look now, Fisher will win this riding. Chisholm is a strong politician (he very nearly became the first NDP premier of Nova Scotia, 11 years before Dexter finally did it), so he will not be blown out of the water, but the NDP has declined considerably in popularity in Nova Scotia since 2011 on both the federal and provincial levels. It's hard to see Chisholm withstanding that.
15 04 09 Mr. Dave
If Mike Savage was the Liberal candidate again, I could see this riding going back to the Liberals.
However, given Chisholm's high profile, I don't think it's going to be easy for a new Liberal candidate to unseat Chisholm.
NDP hold!
15 03 31 ottawa99
If the Liberal numbers in Atlantic Canada stay where they are, this should be a fairly easy pick up for them. Chisholm is a great local MP and seems well liked, but I think the riding demographics are simply too favourable to the Liberals for the NDP to win it given current polling numbers.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
While it's fair to call this riding a Liberal-NDP swing riding, it is certainly not an NDP stronghold. Now with the rising red tide of liberal support across the Atlantic provinces, this riding will fall to the grits.
15 03 22 Brian A
5 years ago, this was Atlantic Canada's safest NDP seat thanks to the incredibly popular NSNDP leader Darrell Dexter. But now...I dunno. Robert Chisholm is a former NSNDP Leader, and a popular incumbent; heck he beat a popular Liberal MP to win this seat (the man who is now known as His Worship the Mayor of HRM). With the NDP tanking in Nova Scotia, this seat isn't safe anymore, but this is still Robert Chisholm we're talking about. I'm going to predict the NDP can hold on here.
15 03 20 Fairview Resident
Chisholm beat Savage in 2011 by a small margin when the NDP beat the Liberals by 1% in NS. Threehundredeight.com now estimates that the Liberals are ahead of the NDP in NS by 49% to 19%, or ahead in Atlantic Canada by 52% to 17%. That's the biggest gap between the parties since 1993. The next biggest gap was 12.5% in NS in 2000. This is also the first election after the defeat of an unpopular provincial NDP government, when they lost to the Liberals by a much narrower 46% to 27%.
I don't know why Craig seems to think Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is some sort of NDP bastion - the numbers don't support that at all. The numbers show that the NDP are going to lose most of their seats in Nova Scotia and this is actually their most tenuous. The NDP were also wiped out in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour provincially in 2013, including the sitting premier who lost his seat. Chisholm may have briefly been a leadership candidate, but he was already well-known in 2011 as the former provincial leader and still won only narrowly. The NDP cannot be 30 points behind and keep their seats. Chisholm could definitely still hold, but it seems unlikely right now given how much the NDP has dropped in NS.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
NDP hold. When the NDP can't hold Dartmouth - Cole Harbour they're done.

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