Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation

Prediction Changed
2015-10-19 01:40:29

Constituency Profile


Beauchamp, Jonathan

Crête, Chantal

Hupé-Labelle, Maxime

Lamarche, Audrey

Lauzon, Stéphane

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2850.65%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (151/223 polls, 67.88% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Mylène Freeman

   (72/223 polls, 32.12% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Mathieu Ravignat


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15 10 18 DSR
Today's Leger poll showed a six point Liberal lead across the province over the NDP. All voters: Lib 31%, NDP 25%, BQ 23%, Con 20%. Francophone voters: Lib 27%, BQ 27%, NDP 26%, Con 20%. Anglophone voters: Lib 51%, NDP 22%, Con 20%, BQ 4%.
The rise in the fortunes of the Libs at the expense of the NDP brings a number of ridings to the north of Montreal into play including Pontiac, Laurentide-Labelle, Berthier-Maskinonge, St Maurice-Champlain and Argenteuil which I'm going to predict will go Red on Monday.
15 09 20 A.S.
An odd erstwhile stubbornly-soft-Bloc patchwork of a seat that's now a little less Greater Montreal and a little more Greater Outaouais than it was--which means, in effect, swapping the '450 Dipperism' for 'Boivin/Turmel Dipperism'. And likelier now to be a 2-or-even-3-way-race for distant second.
15 09 17 #ABC51
While the NDP will lose some ground to the Liberals among non-Francophone voters, all signs point to a continued collapse of the Bloc Québécois vote to the benefit of Team Mulcair. Look for the the BQ to finish with no seats on October 19.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 04 09 2015
A chunk of BQ-unfriendly territory redistributed into this riding makes sure it will not go Bloc and pretty much guarantees an NDP victory. Will be close for 2nd though.
15 03 29 Dr Bear
With this being an open riding and with Liberal numbers strong in the Outaouais, some of the polling number suggest that the Liberals are competitive in this riding. Back when this was a Bloc hold, the Liberals always seemed to be oh-so-close at winning this seat. They never did take it. With the less nationalist Mirabel portion being redistributed off, it may be a better shot for the Liberals, but I am not so sure. The traditional BQ voters will likely switch the NDP to keep the Liberals out. I suspect an NDP win...unless the Liberals get a star candidate....
15 03 28 monkey
A fairly nationalist riding so should probably go NDP, but I am holding off calling as Quebecers are known for switching on a moment's notice.
15 03 28 JFBreton
Je mise sur une réélection du NPD dans cette circonscription coincée entre Gatineau et Mirabel. En 2011, l'adversaire était le Bloc. Je mise en 2015 sur une division du vote d'opposition.

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