Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia

Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:07:14

Constituency Profile


Charest, Joël

Fleury-Samson, Kédina

Fortin, Jean-François

Massé, Rémi

Normand, Éric

Savoie, André

Springle, Sherri

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
   (172/215 polls, 79.55% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jean-François Fortin

   (43/215 polls, 20.45% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Philip Toone


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15 10 19 Marco Ricci
The high Liberal vote here in 2008 & 2011 was probably because of former Quebec MNA Nancy Charest.
However, as Eric Grenier pointed out, the Liberals still have some support in this region of Québec.
Jean Lapierre also said that Remi Masse is a solid candidate for the Liberals, so although he isn't as high-profile as Nancy Charest, there's a small possibility for a Liberal win here depending on how the 4-way split breaks down on Election Night.
15 10 16 Conservative Pundit
This one is likely going to be the talk of election night. It definitely looks like it could be anyone's win here. Plenty of supporters for the main parties and even Fortin has strong support. This one will be fun to watch. the best I'd do here is a random guess or roll a die. If it was just a matter of predicting the parties, I'd go with where the province as a whole is leaning but Fortin is the wild card. I don't know.
15 10 13 JC
Frankly, this is the only 5 way race in Canada with the Liberals-Tories-BQ-NDP and Fortin himself all in the running, but I look at it like this, I think we have no idea if that Liberal support was for Nancy Charest or it was for the Liberals, if it was Liberal support they will win this riding otherwise who the hell knows.p?
15 09 23 Nolan R O'Brien
This riding may be the most interesting in Canada because four parties can win here. The Liberals are up in polling in this riding and are predicted to win, the NDP are popular in the region and that will affect this riding. The Bloc Quebecois has a chance in this riding and very well could hold off. Strength in Democracy has a well-liked candidate and may be able to pull off the personal vote. Whoever wins were will win barely and there may be a recount.
Cette circonscription peut être le plus intéressant au Canada parce que quatre partis peuvent gagner ici . Les libéraux sont en hausse dans les sondages dans cette circonscription et sont prévus pour gagner, le NPD sont très populaires dans la région et qui aura une incidence sur cette circonscription . Le Bloc québécois a une chance dans cette circonscription et pourrait très bien tenir à distance . Forces et Démocratie a un candidat bien-aimé et peut être en mesure de retirer le vote personnel. Celui qui gagnera victoires ont été à peine et il peut y avoir un recomptage .
15 09 17 #ABC51
F&D is irrelevant even where they are incumbents and the BQ campaign is faltering so badly that you would swear they were still being led by a clown like Beaulieu rather than a competent man like Duceppe.
It'll be close, but the NDP should pick this one up.
15 09 08 Neal Ford
No way I can call this riding at this time, but I did want to comment on Nancy Charest, whose name has come up on this thread. I was reading this a couple of days ago, and was wondering why it was TCTC, and checked to see if Nancy was running. I did a google to see if she was running elsewhere due to boundary changes... and found out that she will never be running again. She died at age 54 in march 2014. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/nancy-charest-former-liberal-mna-found-dead-in-matane-1.2557005
15 09 04 Teddy Boragina
F&D is a non factor. Ever since Duceppe returned to the Bloc, F&D has been dead.
That means Fortin is running as an effective Independent.
And Fortin seems to be popular locally. He's a quality MP who, to the surprise of some, was able to cobble together a new political party which is running not one, not two, but three incumbent MPs.
My gut tells me Fortin may just hang on, and win, even as an Independent; but he's not, he's F&D leader, and as such, my opinion is in favour of a little 'F' logo in this riding.
15 09 02 A.S.
Maybe the most 308-monkey-wrenching riding of them all; it's not just the Bloc-to-F&D factor that gums up projection calculations, it's also the artificially high 'Nancy Charest' Liberal figure that throws things totally out of whack. Fortin does have his maverick personal following; though I get this strange pie-in-the-sky whiff of F&D as a latent Quebec-bred version of Mel Hurtig's National Party (particularly now that it's 'gone national'). Or maybe voters will just throw up their hands and go with the NDP flow. Or who knows; a reelected Fortin might himself wind up doing a Maria Mourani in 'going Orange'...
15 08 28 R.O.
This was one of the few ridings in Quebec that voted for the bloc in 2011 . but since then mp has left to join new F&D party . it's a very tough race to predict as Jean Francois Fortin has incumbent advantage going into election although party he is running for is not polling high in Quebec. ndp is polling well in Quebec but didn't win here in 2011 when they were winning just about everything so tough to determine there potential here. Bloc Quebecois is also likely to be a factor in this riding. Too close to call for time being
C'était l'une des rares circonscriptions au Québec qui ont voté pour le bloc en 2011 . Mais depuis lors mp a quitté pour rejoindre de nouveaux F&D parti . Il s'agit d'un très course difficile à prédire que Jean François Fortin a titulaire avantage allant dans élection bien que parti qu'il est en cours d'exécution pour l'interrogation n'est pas élevée au Québec. npd interrogation est bien au Québec mais n'a pas remporté ici en 2011 quand ils ont été de gagner à peu près tout ce si difficile à déterminer il y potentiel ici. Bloc Québécois est également susceptible d'être un facteur dans cette circonscription. Trop proche pour appeler pour le moment
15 08 20 Dave Lang
As an outside observer, I am very curious what happens in these ridings and here is what i've come up with....the bloc is DEAD.
Sorry but it's true, I just don't see the bloc winning this riding as every single Quebec election where separatism and a possible referendum has come up, they crashed and burned. Bringing back Duceppe was a mere bandaid after getting your arm cut off. The bloc supporters are quick to say 'it was just a flesh wound' but no it's not. Marois was set to win a majority provincially, but she brought up referendum and guess what? the hated liberal government is back in power with a majority! Not to mention 2011 when Duceppe had the bright idea to campaign on another referendum and got 4 seats (plus he lost his own!)
Although there are more Bloc supporters than most quebec ridings, I see Strength in Democracy splitting what's left of the separatist voters and leaving the NDP to pick up the win. I actually agree with Dr. Bear's analysis that if political junkies can't figure out what they stand for, how will the average voter? But the name Fortin will attract a lot more voters than polls suggest.
The current numbers suggest a Liberal win and show a strong split in separatist support. With the ever increasing support for the NDP in Quebec, I see them being the main contender. They were grossly underestimated in 2011 afterall!
LIB 29%, NDP 21%, F&D 20%, BQ 17% GRN 4%
15 08 12 Dr Bear
Does anyone know what F&D stand for? I know, I know, support for the regions, blah, blah, blah! But what do they have in the way of a platform? I have no idea.I'm willing to bet most people here don't know what their platform is. If people who frequent this site don't know, then the average Joe and Jane won't have a clue either. Bottom line, F&D becomes another fly by night, short-lived political movement. So who will win this race? I'm not entirely sure. One thing I am certain about; the reason the BQ kept this seat is because the Liberals ran a very popular former MNA as the candidate and split the Federalist vote (similar to what happened in Ahuntsic). They do not have a star candidate, so I think Liberal support will migrate to the NDP. The big question is how resilient is the BQ support. If it's soft, then watch team orange win this seat. If BQ support holds, then it'll be much tougher to call.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 05 24 Canadian Election Atlas
Way too presumptive to call this for the F&D. They haven't registered any support in any provincial poll. Independents rarely do well in elections in Quebec, and even though Fortin is technically not an independent, he might as well be. He does not have enough personal popularity to carry the day here. Having said that, I'm not sure who will win this seat, as the NDP, BQ and Liberals all have a shot at it.
15 04 06 2015
Lutte à cinq ici??? Le gagnant de cette circonscription ne va probablement pas avoir plus de 30% des votes total.
15 04 01 Marco Ricci
A poll published today by F&D gives Jean-François Fortin 66% support in this riding.
However, as polling analyst Eric Grénier says, this is a poll that asked leading questions in favour of Jean-François Fortin, on his behalf. So the poll needs to be treated with caution.
Still, despite the fact that this poll overestimates Jean-François Fortin's support, he is the incumbent MP and is the best known until the other parties get candidates. He has the advantage with voters for now.
15 03 28 monkey
The BQ would have won this last time around, but with their poll numbers not doing so well, it might be tough. The NDP seems the best chance at winning here as this is not a friendly Liberal riding. It was only close in the last few elections as popular former MNA Nancy Charest run under the Liberal banner, so if she runs again, they have an excellent chance at taking this, but if not, then they won't win this.
15 03 24 JC
This is a three way race between the NDP, Liberals and Bloc. With polling the way it is the liberals should barely win this.

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