Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:28:24

Constituency Profile


Boudreau, Max

Lebouthillier, Diane

Morrison, Jim

Pigeon, Jean-Pierre

Roussy, Nicolas

Toone, Philip

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (189/226 polls, 84.67% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Philip Toone

   Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
   (37/226 polls, 15.33% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jean-François Fortin


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15 10 09 Teddy Boragina
The Liberals (or even the Bloc) could easily snatch away this riding. The math currently has the Liberals ahead, but this projection is as much 'Liberal Win' as it is 'NDP Loss', the Bloc could manage a victory here too.
15 10 02 DarkFlare
This may be the closest race in all of Canada right now. WAYYY too close to call with four parties all hovering around a quarter of the vote...but hey lets give it a shot.
The current 308 numbers show how crazy close this is.
LIB 26.4, BQ 24.7, NDP 23.2, CPC 22.9, GRN 1.9, Other 0.9
As you can see the top four parties are about 3 points from each other. Well within the margins for error so really any party could come on top.
My personal belief is that the NDP will end up victorious because although they have dropped in the polls, the NDP still remain the dominant choice in quebec and this province is unique for tending to vote in a block. (Aka the infamous orange crush of 2011)
As for the bloc, I still foresee them winning no seats (at most one) in the entire province as the separation issue has proven to be dead among average quebecers. I think more voters will jump ship to a nationalist party like the NDP.
15 09 29 Spx
I think this one will end up a tight race between the NDP and the Liberals. This used to be quite fertile ground for the Liberals so they might finally bounce back here. There used to be some tight fights here between the Bloc and the Liberals, we might see that coming back with the NDP taking over the Bloc torch these days.
15 09 26 Dr. Bear
To respond to #ABC51's post; I think calling A.S. a Harpercon or a bigot is a bit unfair. He has been a long-time contributor to this site and has always been very balanced in his reviews and (to the best of my knowledge) has never tipped his hand as to which party he supports. In regard to Mr. Toone's sexual orientation, as recently as 2007, being gay was an issue for voters in rural Quebec. Voters cited PQ leader Boisclair's homosexuality as issue for them (and we all know what happened in that election). I would like to think that being gay is a non-issue in today's day and age, but sadly that is not always so (and before anyone cites me as a homophobe, I am the child of gay parents).
As for an actual prediction, I am not entirely sure that the NDP can hold it. Currently the NDP is losing support in Quebec, but that support is going in no one particular direction. The BQ are still aimless, so they are not likely to benefit from this drop. If compelled to make a prediction, I say the NDP holds this with surprisingly strong support for the other major parties.
15 09 22 #ABC51
Dude, it's 2015 and the first thing the previous poster brought up was Toone's sexual orientation, which of course turned out to be completely irrelevant to his prediction. I'll leave it to the readers to decide if the comment was mere Harpocon sleaze or outright bigotry, but unless the candidate's sexual orientation is salient to the poster's prediction, it is inappropriate to draw attention to it.
Anywho, unless Toone's been a particularly lousy MP or has brought disrepute to the constituency, there is no way that this notionally BQ seat does not fall to the ndp. All the polling we've seen from Quebec so far points to heavy BQ and Tory losses to the gain of both the Liberals and the NDP
15 09 21 A.S.
Never mind Ruth-Ellen Brosseau; the openly gay Philip Toone's maybe the most charming emblem of how *anyone* could be dragged to light by the Orange Crush undertow--he had been fifth with 1.5% in Champlain in 2000 (behind the Marijuana Party!) and again with 2% in the present seat in 2004 (behind the Greens!), and just photo-finished ahead of the Bloc in what might as well have been a four-wayish race in 2011. And now, redistribution's bumped him *behind* the Bloc once again--except that the Bloc ain't what it was. Somehow, Toone *still* feels like the perennial-two-percenter-made-good; yet somehow in his case, that's actually just as well a campaign *plus*--maybe not to a 'Peter Stoffer of the Gaspe' degree, but...
15 09 17 #ABC51
While the NDP will lose some ground to the Liberals among non-Francophone voters, all signs point to a continued collapse of the Bloc Québécois vote to the benefit of Team Mulcair. Look for the the BQ to finish with no seats on October 19.
15 09 12 Mr. Dave
How things have changed from 2004 for Phillipe Toone, when he was the NDP candidate here and finished 5th.
As the NDP are far ahead of the other parties in francophone Quebec, with the Iles-de-la-Madeleine section voting on Atlantic Time, he'll probably be the first of the Orange Wave in Quebec to be declared re-elected on Election night.
NDP hold!
15 08 06 Expat
Things are leaning NPD in Quebec, but still potentially fluid so I have avoided making predictions here so far.
In this riding the 4-way combination of an existing NPD incumbent, high poll numbers, the Bloc fizzling quickly after the return of Duceppe, and the Liberal riding association very publicly defecting to the NPD, as overall favorable to hold.
It's possible I could change my prediction later if there is a major Quebec swing, but for now I am comfortable making this call.
15 08 05 Media reviewer
Liberals helping the NDP here - any reasonable doubt over the final outcome likely removed.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 28 monkey
The re-distribution does give the BQ a narrow edge, but with the NDP having an incumbent, I think they are most likely to hold this. The Liberals also have their pockets of support so a win by them is not totally out of the picture. The Conservatives also got above the provincewide average so if you get a perfect split amongst the non-conservative parties the Tories could theoretically win here, but seems unlikely and if they do win here it would likely be with less than 30% of the popular vote meaning unless the Tories find a new leader who is more popular in Quebec, the MP would likely be a one term MP as the non-Tory voters would likely coalesce around one party to knock off the MP next time around.
15 03 24 phil03
I worked in Toone office for a while some two years ago. The man is immensely popular in is riding and will be reelected bare any new development.
His small victory margin in 2011 was mainly due to the fact that he didnt even campaign back in the day but he sure as hell will this time. LIKELY NDP
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Under redistribution, the Bloc would have held this riding in 2011 and lost neighboring Matane-Matapedia. That said, they do have significant support out here, as do the Liberals and the CPC. Surprisingly, threehundredeight is suggesting this would be a Liberal gain (along with other eastern Quebec ridings). It's looking like this could be a four-way race. TCTC.

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