Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:32:14

Constituency Profile


Beaudoin, Jocelyn

Breton, Pierre

Fontaine, Sylvie

Mailhot, Claire

McMillan, Simon

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (211/213 polls, 99.99% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Réjean Genest

   (2/213 polls, 0.01% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Pierre Jacob


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15 09 21 A.S.
One more Dipper class-of-2011er choosing (with age perhaps a factor, Genest being nearly 70) to make way for a new candidate. Good point re Granby's provincial representation; were Francois Bonnardel to make a federal Con run, he might have been as interesting to watch as Alain Rayes in Richmond-Arthabaska. But he isn't; and in such absence, NDP's pretty much the decreed 'safe choice' in Shefford.
15 07 09 mr_vince
Not that much an interesting battle.
MP Genest hasn't done that much since his election and Jocelyn Beaudoin, formet MP candidate for Option National in the 2014 provincial election might be too unexperienced and unknown by the citizens of Granby and the suburbs to get elected in October
Mr. Genest should go back to Ottawa
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 04 07 Mr. Montreal
The Tories actually have more luck in winning this riding than the Liberals, with the provincial riding of Granby being a stronghold for the CAQ. That said, Harper isn't personally very popular in the Eastern Townships.
15 03 28 monkey
While heavily Francophone, it is a popular tourist destination as well as many former Montrealers who want a more rural setting like to retire here so while I would give the NDP an edge, a Liberal win here is not out of the question.

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