Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:46:20

Constituency Profile


Leadbetter, Stacey

Moriarity, Andrew

O'Toole, Erin

Spence, Derek

Traill, Corinna

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4990.99%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (165/205 polls, 79.34% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Erin O'Toole

   (31/205 polls, 17.14% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Colin Carrie

   (9/205 polls, 3.51% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Pat Perkins


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15 10 07 R.O.
Erin O'toole was first elected here in a by-election in 2012 and moved up the ranks in Ottawa ever since and now Veteran Affairs Minister. This has been a historically tory friendly riding although somehow now has a liberal mpp. But Erin O'toole a much better candidate than one who ran for Ontario pc's here and he should hold this riding.
15 09 07
The O'toole people shouldn't be too confident in this riding.
As a long time resident of this riding, I don't see the perceived strength of the NDP here. While Spence is a nice guy, he just doesn't have the profile or name recognition (even after running provincially)to be a factor.
The Liberal candidate, Trail - a popular councillor in Bowmanville looks much stronger. Combined with the Grandville Anderson win, provincially, this should be a close Con/lib race. The riding by riding results from 308 ridings don't seem accurate to what the riding seems like.
Definitely too close to call.
15 08 22 A.S.
In all the left-partisan woe-is-us whine about how even the Bev Oda scandal couldn't detach byelection-bound Durham from its CPC allegiances, it's telling that little or no consideration was given to the kind of candidate the Cons were offering--and Erin O'Toole's quick ascension to cabinet proves why he was no 'generic Conservative'. However, 2014's double whammy of the Wynne Grits stealing the O'Toole family riding and ex-MPP John O'Toole losing his mayoralty bid proves that nothing--not even bloodlines--is sacred. Federally, it's still a longshot to fall; though I wouldn't be a dismissive as some re the NDP bucking Durham's so-called traditional 'Liberal/Tory war'--thanks to geography, Durham might indeed (compared to Whitby, Ajax, etc) be drawn more into/affected by the secondary 'Oshawa orbit' than the more authentic Lib/Toryness of the inner 905. If anything, my reluctance to offer a Con prediction here counterbalances my total failure to foresee the Liberals taking Durham provincially. (And as Spence's strong third proved, even *that* race was more 3-way than unite-the-left per se.)
15 08 20 Dave Lang
Although I agree with redblue that the NDP have a strong chance to take this riding and to be honest I wont be surprised if they do. It will be a hard battle!
But the fact of the matter is that all Durham Region ridings tend to be entrenched in the Liberal/Tory war. Currently the polls show the Tories at 44% NDP at 30% and the Lib at 18%. Spence has to really show voters that he's the only one to beat out the conservatives in this riding, not the traditional Liberals. He needs to bring unity on the left under the orange banner if he wants to win.
I personally think it'll take one more election cycle before the NDP take the riding. I think Oshawa will be the only orange riding in the Durham Region in 2015.
15 08 18 Monkey Cheese
Huh. A poll from Durhamregion.com shows the NDP in a commanding lead here, but this is an online poll, so take it with a grain of salt. I don't think much weight can be put into it, but it's interesting nonetheless. The Conservatives will be very tough to beat here with one of their better cabinet ministers as the incumbent. Their campaign would have to go disastrously for them to lose here.
15 07 17 redblue
You heard it here first folks, do not be shocked if the NDP win this riding. When you hear it in the country side one takes notice. Should the PCs eke out a win I will suggest it will be the last term, no matter what or who forms government.
15 06 03 Josh
This is an easy CPC hold. Both the Liberal and NDP candidates live outside the new boundaries of the riding, and even with her name recognition as a sitting councilor in Clarington, the Liberal candidate doesn't stand a chance.
15 05 31 Follow The Numbers
This is probably one of the safest seats in the country for the Conservatives. Even though it went Liberal provincially, it would have to take a scandal of epic proportions for the Conservatives to lose here, especially with a high profile cabinet minister as the incumbent.
15 05 17 Durham Guy
Durham is perhaps the safest seat in Durham for the Conservatives. This was a riding that voted for them in droves even after the Bev Oda scandal in a by-election. O'Toole is now a cabinet minister and that should help him secure his seat even if he isn't the most competent minister, although still far better than the incompetent Fantino. Barring a major Conservative meltdown or scandal, this is a riding they should easily hold.
15 03 28 monkey
Notwithstanding the OLP win last provincial election which was a big surprise, this is a pretty solid Tory riding. Unlike the other Durham ridings, this one is still fairly rural as opposed to suburban meaning even if the 905 swings behind the Liberals, this likely won't fall to them.
15 03 19 Jason
Conservative hold, especially now that Erin O'Toole is a cabinet minister.
The provincial Liberals may have surprisingly won this seat during the May 2014 election, but that was under different circumstances.

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