Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Scarborough North

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:40:32

Constituency Profile


Chen, Shaun

Khatoon, Aasia

MacDonald, Eleni

Malhi, Ravinder

Rosch, Raphael

Sitsabaiesan, Rathika

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2770.77%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Scarborough-Rouge River
   (148/162 polls, 92.53% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rathika Sitsabaiesan

   (14/162 polls, 7.47% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Arnold Chan


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 17 SPP
The Liberals are polling very high across Ontario and Toronto is the core of this support. This riding shouldn't even be close on Election Night and should be called for the Liberals. 308 gives the Liberals an 84% chance of winning this on E-Day with 46% of the vote. Liberal gain amongst a sea of red. It is possible the only two non-Liberal 416 seats will be T-Danforth and Davenport.
15 10 13 Jeff S
Changing fortunes of the parties moves this one from NDP to Liberal.
15 10 02 Dr. Bear
The math tells me that the Liberals will win this riding, however the NDP are close and have a popular incumbent. While I say it leans Liberal, TCTC is the right call for now.
15 09 27
I am predicting this riding (which is my riding) will go Liberal. I am saying this because Shaun Chen is a name known by a lot of the population in this riding. He has been school board trustee for as long I can remember (I am a young voter, and since I was in elementary school my parents have been receiving newsletters from him.) Another factor that helps him is that the new riding boundaries cuts off some of the Tamil NDP vote from the previous election, and intensifies the Asian vote from the Agincourt portion of this riding. Another factor that may also help is the Liberal's public transit promise, which is issue that matters to a lot of citizens in this riding.
15 09 10 Marco Ricci
Earlier this Summer when the NDP was ahead in Ontario, this riding was leaning NDP. Now as we enter the Fall portion of the campaign, it is leaning Liberal now that the Liberals have taken the lead in Ontario.
Currently projected to go Liberal by 308 (73% chance), but obviously it will remain competitive for the NDP too since the NDP MP has gained a higher profile in the Toronto media and is often covered by progressive GTA magazines like Toronto Now.
15 09 01 Jason
I predicted that Scarborough Rouge River will go Liberal due to the local candidate. I will predict that Scarborough North will go NDP due to the popular incumbent Radhika Sitsabaiesan.
Sitsabaiesan has forged a coalition between traditional NDP supporters, voters from the Tamil community and progressive swing voters. I expect Mulcair to be here soon.
15 08 17 jeff316
Well, you can't say that the voters of Scarborough North lack options! The erstwhile albeit heart-on-her-sleeve-almost-to-the-point-of-unprofessional Rathika has solidified a strong name as a local constituency MP, but while she rocks it locally the perception remains she maybe just wasn't ready for national profile associated with the job. Shaun Chen is the opposite, as he epitomizes the traditional Liberal assembly line candidate - the Macleans list, his background, his ethnicity, his age, more appointments and political roles than Rathika could have ever hoped to have, and just enough tarnish from this stint on the TDSB - but still dogged by the perception that he's never really done anything of value, and that every role was just a temporary stage for the next, preparing up to this moment. Voters will decide what is worse; the inherent smarminess that comes with someone who has been politicking from a young age (Chen) will turn of potential voters more than the outspoken, fly-off-the-handle nature of someone who was vaulted a bit too soon (Rathika)?
15 07 05 A.S.
While the Agincourt chunk's been historically week for the NDP, let's not forget: until 2011, so was Scarborough-Rouge River at large. (Indeed, had said chunk *already* been part of the riding, the Rathika machine might have wheedled out another 5-10 or more percentage points there for the NDP.) But even so, she's taken on a gargantuan task; while the new Scarborough North still registers as NDP-plurality, it's dominated by the far less hospitable western part of her former riding where, as in Agincourt, the 'natural electoral condition' of the largely ethnic-Chinese populace tends to be Lib/Con. That is, Rathika's *really* having to run on incumbent-energy-in-overdrive--the remaining bits of super-Tamil-NDP Morningside Heights being simply not enough in themselves. (It's interesting that, as with Jagmeet Singh in Brampton, the 'newest' parts--i.e. post-Y2K subdivision--are her best parts.) Nor does it help that she's facing a Grit that perfectly embodies the aforementioned 'natural electoral condition': Shaun Chen--that is, if *he* isn't tripped up as a newly-reelected-and-not-resigned school trustee. It's not like she had much choice, given redistribution--but, she's going for it, and if anyone can do it, she can...
15 05 24 Mr. Dave
The Liberals are dropping in Ontario, and Rathika Sitsabaiesan is an example of the ethnic candidates, like Jagmeet Singh, who are no longer of the communities that the Liberals had a lock on in the previous decades.
She's popular, and hasn't been an embarrassment to the riding.
It won't be a runaway victory, but she'll hold this riding.
15 04 30 Gillian
Rathika Sitsabaiesan is a very popular MP. The Liberals have nominated local school trustee Shaun Chen. Sadly, I think voting will be somewhat influenced by the ethnic backgrounds of the candidates. This however will easily favour Rathika.
15 03 28 monkey
While the changes make this somewhat less safe for the Liberals, this has normally been a riding they win big in and with the NDP returning to traditional levels, they should easily hold this even if the Tory vote holds.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
This will be a really tight race, vote splitting could take it anywhere but Green. I hear the riding likes Rathika as an MP. As a current Carleton student government councillor who sees her days with our association as corrupt and divisive, I'll admit my bias against the NDP here. If I have to predict, I will say it goes Liberal.
15 03 23 ML
Rathika has a high profile in the riding and on the Hill, but the new boundary changes might not work in her favour. Scarborough North includes a chunk of the old Scarborough-Agincourt riding which has historically been very, very weak NDP turf. The heavy Chinese community in Agincourt could be courted by the Liberal candidate Shaun Chen. Very interesting race to watch.
15 03 19 Jason
Incumbent NDP MP Rathika Sitsabaiesan is popular at the local level, despite not having much recognition in Ottawa. I suspect the NDP should be narrowly be able to hold this one despite the Liberals winning surrounding ridings.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster