Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-08-02 12:41:39

Constituency Profile


Ahluwalia, Birinder Singh

Arruda, James

Ehsassi, Ali

Leung, Chungsen

Tabasinejad, Pouyan

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (184/224 polls, 83.51% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Chungsen Leung

   York Centre
   (39/224 polls, 16.49% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Mark Adler


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15 09 14 dnwman
The generally well educated, affluent and multi-ethnic population in Willowdale has historically swung between Liberal and Conservative both federally and provincially. The lack of any local NDP presence and overwhelming John Tory support in the 2014 municipal election point to an electorate that is on balance, overwhelmingly right of centre - but not that far right of centre. The mood on the ground seems to be that the Harper era is over. Ehsassi is a bright, articulate and engaging candidate for the Liberals while Leung has had a fairly low profile as an incumbent Conservative MP. Expect a big chunk of the Conservative gains from 2011 to drift back to the hard working local Liberals given the regional trends. The NDP continue to show effort, but few results - meaning the smaller left of centre votes will also overwhelmingly go Liberal.
15 09 06 Tony Ducey
Leung seems to have been someone that benefited greatly from the CPC push to the majority in 2011, think in 2015 he'll lose and you'll see the Liberal win again.
15 09 06 OgtheDim
Probably the only riding where the mishandling of the refugee file actually will mean something to a lot of locals. Although the issue was involving Syrians/Kurds, that event will bring up memories of how the Tories have made it very difficult for Persians/Iranians to get family in. That's enough to drive a lot of money and effort to the Libs and will be enough to tip the Tories out, regardless of how bad or not the national campaigns go.
15 08 23 Jes
Agree with Liberal call. LPC candidate and volunteers have been out knocking since the dead of winter. I've seen him in my neighborhood several times. Not only is he working the ground hard, he's intelligent and affable. CPC candidate far from engaging.
15 08 23 Joanna M
With Liberals enjoying a resurgence in Toronto, and Ehsassi as the candidate, this is an easy pick up. LPC candidate has impressive credentials, not to mention appeal to new Canadian communities as a success story. Return to red fold for Willowdale.
15 08 20
Recent Environics riding-specific poll shows the Liberals with a narrow lead over the Conservatives with the NDP third in a 3-Way race.
15 08 03 Docere
I agree with the Liberal call here. It increasingly looks like the Liberals aren't going to be picking up many seats as they get squeezed out in what looks like an NDP-Conservative battle. However, Willowdale is a seat the Liberals are likely to take back, given that they only narrowly lost to the Tories and it's not the type of riding to swing NDP.
15 08 03 R.O.
Well this had been a riding in Toronto the liberals did well in until 2011 , I'm not sure I'd count Chungsen Leung out yet until we get a better feel for overall election in Ontario .he seems like a good fit for the riding considering there is not many mp's of Asian background in the GTA. the former liberal mp for the riding Martha Hall Findlay is also not back and new liberal candidate doesn't seem as high profile . that being said the ndp hasn't been much of a factor in willowdale so liberals remain his main competition .
15 07 31 Woodworth
The Liberal is a strong candidate. Had Chungsen Leung run in Don Valley North, he may have had a better shot. This riding is full of condos, young adults, metropolitans and singles, perfect picking ground for Liberals.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
TTC. Many factors here. CS Leung is an incumbent and Chinese (like 25-30% of the riding), but it was close last time. LPC candidate is a tough guy, but is not as well known an Martha Hall Findlay was. As for the small, but very engaged Persian community, both the LPC and NDP candidates are Persian, so I wonder if the NDP might hamper the LPC when it comes to dominating the Persian vote.
15 07 16 Naythan
This is one of the three North York seats (alongside Don Valley North and Don Valley West) which can swing either Lib or Con. Recent riding association numbers came out and the Willowdale Con and Lib associations had about the same amount. Although not a clear indicator of who will win, more money is always helpful. The Condos, which have sprung like wildfire in this riding and can not be canvassed until the writ drops, will be the deciding factor in this riding. As of now: too close to call.
15 07 01 HFoster
Completely between the Liberals and CPC. The riding is very multicultural, and is reflected by the diversity of the candidates. Leung has been in trouble with the Persian community before, and that may affect his chances in this riding. At the moment I will say it is TCTC, as the NDP support needs to be gauged in this riding.
15 05 15 TyroneG
This is a solidly LIBERAL riding. The Conservatives are polling way below where they were in 2011 in both Ontario and nationwide. This riding was 41.5 CON - 39 LIB in 2011 when the Liberals were polling around 25% in Ontario. They are now upwards of 30-35% in Ontario with renewed strength in the GTA. The influx of condos has brought even more young professionals into the riding and swung it further to the Liberals. It won't even be close. Guaranteed Liberal win.
15 04 19 OgtheDim
Tough to call yet. Ethnicity is a bit of a bump for the Liberal here and Leung isn't from this riding (he was parachuted in from Markham). In theory, Willowdale skews younger now and more Persian and Russian. But it remains to be seen if this demographic change will translate into votes. I suspect voting turnout will be low in this riding, with parents and grandparents who own homes voting based on national trends while the large condo and apartment blocks will see few people able or willing to vote.
On a point of clarification, the riding was hived off at Bayview, not Leslie. The Bayview to Leslie area is largely older resident Jewish grandparents who are selling off their homes given the ridiculous prices and parent age Asians and others who have moved in the last 10 years. It was a Blue Liberal/Red Tory bastion. Its uncertain if this area loss changes much in Willowdale.
15 04 01 aj
In 2011, given a weak party leader, incumbent Martha Hall Findlay, with national name recognition, maxed out Liberal support. Expect a Green Party Candidate, absent in 2011, to syphon Liberal votes in 2015. Chungsen Leung re-elected in 2015.
15 03 28 monkey
This has been a Liberal stronghold for quite some time and while the Tories have a strong base here, it won't be enough to put them over the top and likewise the NDP is irrelevant here.
15 03 28 Stevo
The Eastern, very Liberal-friendly chunk of Willowdale has been cleaved off into Don Valley North. Even so, I can't see the Conservatives holding onto what was really a fluky win last time. I believe the eastern part of the former Willowdale riding also had a proportionally larger Asian population; losing those voters would certainly be detrimental to Leung.
15 03 26 ML
With the collapse of the Liberals in 2011 and a Liberal incumbent who seemed more interested in building her career on the Hill than doing constituency work it made for a perfect opening for the Conservatives. The Liberals are on the rise in Toronto, the Conservatives otherwise, and if that patterns continues into the fall the Grits should be able to win this back.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
You hate to use this as a reason, but 1 in four voters in Willowdale are Chinese. Arab Canadians don't make up 1% of the constituents. Tie ethnic outreach with incumbency, and Leung is re-elected.
Editor's Note:Two points to note re Willowdale's ethno-makeup
1. While Chinese made up approx 24% of the old riding of Willowdale, the most heavily Chinese area is the area east of Leslie, which has been redistributed to Don Valley North.
2. The Liberal candidate is of Persian decent, not Arab. Persians make up approx.. 9% of the old riding, and are concentrated in the area that remains in the new Willowdale riding.
15 03 24 JC
Chungsen Leung is a fluke MP, he barely and unexpectedly got in. The Liberals will take this.
15 03 24 MH
This is another constituency that the Conservatives won in a close battle in 2011 and that should return to the Liberal column in 2015. The tide is running against the Conservatives in the large cities, and it will swamp them in Willowdale as in other big-city ridings.
15 03 22 A.S.
Or maybe rather than a battle of ethnicities or occupations, it's a simple battle of Conservative vs Liberal? (That is, an echo of trends bigger and broader than the mere backgrounds and credentials of the individual candidates.) In which case, the Liberals have a long electoral history in Willowdale to their advantage, and the rapid condo-ization of the Yonge and Sheppard corridors also appears to reinforce the left flank (mayorally speaking, both Smitherman in 2010 and Chow in 2014 overachieved there by suburban standards)--thus, if we're looking at a Grit resurgence from the Iggy basement, this'd seem among the likelier takebacks, for sure. (NB: the 2011 Willowdale race was interesting in almost a 'retro' way in there being only the 3 major-party candidates, as the Greens failed to offer a candidate in time and nobody else offered--which, I suppose, *really* fueled the anti-vote-splitting argument in that it was, perhaps, nothing other than token Orange Crush surge that 'stole' Martha Hall Findlay's seat. Yeah, as if vote splitting were the only explanation there was...)
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Chungsen Leung is not a high profile MP, but that doesn't mean he's a no-name. He has far more visible involvements and achievements to his name prior to politics than lawyer Ali Ehsassi, though the latter's role as former senior advisor at both the Ontario Ministry of Economic Development and Trade and at the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade in Ottawa, does necessarily mean keeping low profile.
This may come down to a battle of ethnicities, Taiwanese/Chinese versus Iranian-Canadian/Muslim communities, but it sucks to think of politics in those terms. Perhaps it is more of a businessman vs. lawyer competition.

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