Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Saint Boniface-Saint Vital

Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:34:29

Constituency Profile


Catellier, François

Selby, Erin

Vandal, Dan

Zaretski, Glenn

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Saint Boniface
   (176/186 polls, 98.12% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Shelly Glover

   Winnipeg South
   (8/186 polls, 1.88% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rod Bruinooge


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15 09 27 R.O.
There was a mainstreet poll done for this riding, there numbers among decided voters were 37 lib , 33 cpc , 25 ndp and 5 green. So with a couple weeks left it appears to be a close race in this open riding . as for the probe poll Other pollsters haven't showed Manitoba being that close all the other polls have given the conservatives a lead province wide that I have seen so far this election so be interesting to see what the other polls say .
15 09 27 A.S.
For projection purposes, keep in mind that the Liberals might not have done so well in StBon in 2011 were it not a Glover-Simard rematch--or at least, they wouldn't have doubled the NDP vote. Which *might* make Erin Selby the most likely Manitoba NDP candidate to see an increased share over 2011 (yes, more so than WinN or ElmTrans)--but that's not winning. Though *possibly* vote-splitting; although riding history and this strange 'Peggian Justin-bubble out there suggests that in the end, it still might not be *that* fatal to Grit hopes...
15 09 26 Marco Ricci
'Deadlocked in Manitoba' - PROBE (Sept. 2015)
CPC - 39
LPC - 39
NDP - 18
PROBE says the Liberals have gone from a distant 3rd under Ignatieff in 2011 to a tie with the Conservatives, with the NDP being the one in a distant 3rd in 2015.
PROBE also shows the Liberals ahead in both Southwest & Southeast Winnipeg.
This means the Liberals are now in position to win back this traditional Liberal seat. However, because the Conservatives aren't necessarily done yet, I will leave it as TCTC for now.
15 09 13 Marco Ricci
The Erin Selby run for the NDP is puzzling. Even in 2011 when the Liberals had a terrible year, the NDP finished a distant 3rd here. Fast-foward to 2015 and the NDP position is even weaker. Dan Vandal is a high-profile Liberal candidate who has been campaigning for a long time, whereas Selby is entering the race in its closing stages in a year in which the NDP is down in Manitoba. There's even the issue of Selby not being fluent in French. In sum, the likelihood of an NDP win here is nearly non-existent. Perhaps Selby felt that after her falling out with Premier Selinger her provincial career is over, or perhaps Tom Mulcair offered her a staff position with his NDP for agreeing to make what is probably a no-hope run.
Anyway, although sites like 308 give the Liberals a 90% chance of winning here, I will leave it as TCTC just in case. There's a possibility that the Conservative vote could recover, or that the NDP could get just enough votes to prevent a Liberal win.
15 09 11 Rob B
The Liberals have a very popular candidate, who is a trusted former city council representative with huge name recognition. Even with a well-known (but damaged) NDP opponent to split the vote, I don't see how the Tories hold this otherwise naturally liberal leaning riding. My gut tells me this won't even close and Vandal will win big.
15 09 10 Tony Ducey
Liberal win. The way the NDP are perceived in Manitoba will hurt Selby's candidacy more than help it.
15 09 06 R.O.
With news of a high profile ndp candidate as current manitoba mla Erin Selby has been nominated the race here has changed significantly. And riding likely now too close to call. Not mentioned in other posts is Francois Caterllier is the new conservative candidate . also detailed regional numbers for manitoba were published in a late august Angus Reid poll of 820 manitoba voters. there numbers were 44 cpc , 27 lib and 24 ndp. Those numbers would indicate Manitoba is still a place were cpc is polling well , liberals doing better than 2011 but still behind and ndp is being held down due to unpopular provincial government . I don't think cpc will do as well here without Glover but don't see there vote falling off a cliff either. In the 2 elections she didn't run they still go 31%-35% of the vote in this riding .
15 09 04 NK Voter
Selby will likely hinder than help the NDP here. She was likely to lose her seat in the upcoming election so she has nothing to lose here. If the NDP win nationally, she would be in line for whatever patronage appointment that opens up.
15 09 04 Interested Observer
Selby's in. Her profile, name recognition and the strength of the overall NDP national campaign will give her a shot, in spite of the unpopularity of the provincial NDP. Conservatives won last time, history of Liberal support with a credible candidate, and now a legitimate NDP threat. This makes it an interesting 3 way race, probably TCTC. Could see all 3 majors getting >25% of the vote.
15 08 22 Marco Ricci
Erin Selby is indeed considering running for the NDP. CBC & The Winnipeg Free Press report that a poll was done of voters in this riding to determine possible support levels and to find out whether Selby's lack of fluency in French would be an issue.
15 08 04 Interested Observer
Rumours have current provincial MLA Erin Selby (former cabinet minister, one of the rebels who tried ousting Selinger) running for the NDP. If that comes about would create a three-way dynamic that would make this much less predictable.
15 08 02 R.O.
Well I do think the loss of Shelly Glover as a candidate hurts the conservatives here , I don't think she was the only candidate who could of won the riding for them. And conservatives have proven well at holding vacant ridings in the past so maybe its foolish to count them out here. The liberals also need to gain a lot from 2008 and 2011 numbers to take the riding back and that may prove more challenging than first though as ndp seems to be opposition party with the momentum. I could even see this as a riding that may have potential for the ndp at some point.
15 05 31 Follow The Numbers
I agree with Aaron. There is absolutely no way that someone as intensely partisan as Shelly Glover resigns for 'family reasons'. I think she saw some internal polling that indicated that she couldn't win. Better to retire ahead of time than suffer a humiliating defeat. Yet another case of the rats fleeing a sinking ship. Easy Liberal pickup based on the numbers and a strong candidate. I think it would be a safe bet to change the prediction here as well.
15 04 30 Aaron H.
Shelley Glover decided to retire rather than run again in this riding because she knew she was going to lose. I just don't believe that someone as intensely partisan as Glover is retiring for 'family reasons.'
This riding, while turning Conservative every once-in-a-while when the Liberals are unpopular, is traditionally Liberal. With Stephen Harper much less popular than he once was (was he ever truly popular), this riding is probably going to return to the Liberal ranks in the upcoming election.
15 04 26 Marco Ricci
Stevo, I agree that people should not assume the Liberals are guaranteed to win just because Shelly Glover is retiring.
Not everyone who is predicting a Liberal win is a 'Liberal commentator'.
At this point in time, the Liberals have a head start, plus a high-profile candidate. Although a Conservative businessman has come forward to run in Winnipeg South to replace Rod Bruinooge, the Conservatives haven't found a candidate to replace Shelly Glover yet.
In this article, U of M politics professor Royce Koop says Dan Vandal is the front-runner for now:
'He would have had a tough time against Shelly Glover, but there's no doubt he's now the odds-on favourite'.
15 04 24 Stevo
Amazing how the Liberal commentators here think that the Conservatives will just roll over and blow a 20-point margin in this riding. Yes Shelly Glover was popular and well-liked but she was not indispensable to winning an urban seat where the local candidate generally matters less than in rural or small-town ridings. It can well be assumed that the Conservatives will put up another good candidate (hopefully bilingual) and provided the national campaign goes reasonably well, it is more likely than not they will hold this seat. Of course if the Tories tank nationally they'll lose here, but the same will be true for dozens of urban ridings across the country.
15 04 06 Brian A
With Glover gone, this heavily francophone seat - already a fight - has turned into a Liberal slamdunk. By announcing her resignation, Glover handed this seat to Trudeau.
15 04 04 Fairview Resident
This was one of the 2 seats that the Liberals held in 2006 (In addition to picking up Churchill in a 3-way vote split). With the help of a fluently bilingual police officer Shelly Glover, the Tories in 2008 managed to narrowly win this riding even with its substantial francophone community, and easily held it in 2011 during the Liberal collapse. In May 2014, the Liberals nominated Vandal, the fluently bilingual, long-time city councillor for St. Boniface, who has been working hard to beat Glover ever since. Glover has just announced that she will not seek reelection. Whoever succeeds her as the Tory candidate will face a much stronger Liberal party and a popular, well known Liberal candidate with a 1-year head start. What looked like a tough race suddenly looks like a very likely Liberal gain.
15 04 03 Greg P
With Glover gone in what seems like a surprise announcement, I don't see this going anywhere but Liberal. If the Conservatives have some sort of secret star candidate waiting in the wings that could change things, but without the incumbency boost that Glover had, this will go Red in October.
15 04 03 ME
Shelly Glover is not running again...she is leaving politics. The liberals will pick this up with Shelley Glover not running again
15 04 03 Marco Ricci
Shelly Glover announced today that she is not running again.
Without an incumbent cabinet minister, this increases the Liberal chances of winning back this seat. It's not guaranteed for the Liberals yet since the Conservatives could nominate a good replacement for Glover, but advantage Liberal for now.
15 04 03 Logan Bobetsis
With Glover retiring and LPC Dan Vandal a popular former city councillor I think this goes LPC. David Akin agrees FWIW https://mobile.twitter.com/davidakin/status/584076227599847424
15 04 03 JC
Shelly Glover is not running for re-election, unless the Tories find an amazing candidate I have to believe Dan Vandal has a major advantage.
15 03 29 monkey
With the Liberals doing well in Manitoba, it wouldn't surprise me if they retook this that being said most of the new subdivisions have been in the southern part of the riding which is more suburban thus favour the Tories as opposed to Saint Boniface which will off course go Liberal as it usually does.
15 03 26 Locksley
This is a targeted riding for the Liberals based on the history of it and the introduction of a star candidate in Dan Vandal. Can he really defeat Shelley Glover though? This former boxer will have a fight on his hands, expect this one to go to the judges.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
This is one the seats the Liberals should easily pick up with their current polling numbers in the Prairies, Dan Vandal is a popular former city councillor. I would be stunned to see Glover hang on here.
15 03 22 DT
Glover should keep the riding this time around. Now a cabinet minister (and fluently bilingual), she is able to best represent the citizens of the riding. There are Conservatives who believe that Canada should be unilingual English, she would be one to refute the statement. The Tories need Glover, just like the riding needs Glover.

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