Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Winnipeg South

Prediction Changed
2015-10-06 23:32:32

Constituency Profile


Duguid, Terry

Giesbrecht, Gordon

Goertzen, Brianne

Smith, Adam

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Winnipeg South
   (147/163 polls, 92.24% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rod Bruinooge

   Saint Boniface
   (16/163 polls, 7.76% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Shelly Glover


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15 10 10 R.O.
It seems a little early to call this one as it appears to be one of the more competitive ridings in winnipeg but its clearly a close race between Gordon Geisbrecht and Terry Duguid , it's a riding that likely will depend on how final week of campaign goes . there is also other polls not mentioned much on this site that have shown much different numbers for Manitoba than the probe poll. A recent mainstreet poll released on October 9th had regional numbers for Manitoba and around 600 people polled , there results 40 cpc , 27 lib , 14 ndp , 2 green , 17 undecided .
15 10 11 Locksley
It appears this riding has been decided, at least by internal parties. Both the Liberals and Conservatives are apparently moving pieces away from these ridings and switching the battles to Charleswood and Kildonan-St. Paul. Not sure that those ridings are in play but that's apparently where the Battle for Winnipeg currently stands. Gordon has had a bad campaign, from a bumbling communications effort that aired on the Free Press to poor debate performances where he actually showed up (which included a curt response to youths at FRC) this riding is now too far out of reach.
15 09 27 A.S.
Chalk it up to urbanity + the magic combination of Harper fatigue and Selinger fatigue, but the Liberals seem to have built up (by default?) one apparent heck of a polling advantage in Winnipeg--a Duff'n'Doer Grit grand coalition, perhaps? Partying like it's 1988 when Carstairs was the Rachel Notley phenom of the moment? Will it all hold firm by e-day? It just might, esp. with Giesbrecht's past utterances--at least, unless Harper goes 'Cameron Majority' on us and miraculously salvages a lot of his so-called 'write-offs'...
15 09 28 Monkey Cheese
The previous MP here may have been anti-abortion, but I don't recall him ever making comments that are that outrageous and offensive. With the 9/11 comment he's basically equating abortion to terrorism. That kind of language is not something a 'scientist' should be saying if he wants to be taken seriously. He sounded like a misogynist jackass with those remarks and it speaks volumes that the Conservatives didn't punish him when other candidates were fired for far less offensive comments. The polls have show the Liberals are doing very well in Manitoba and Winnipeg in particular. I think we can see them taking back some of their old strongholds this time around, including this one.
15 09 26 Marco Ricci
'Deadlocked in Manitoba' - PROBE (Sept. 2015)
CPC - 39
LPC - 39
NDP - 18
PROBE says the Liberals have gone from a distant 3rd under Ignatieff in 2011 to a tie with the Conservatives, with the NDP being the one in a distant 3rd in 2015.
PROBE also shows the Liberals ahead in both Southwest & Southeast Winnipeg.
This means the Liberals now have a chance to win back this seat. It doesn't have as strong a Liberal history as Winnipeg South Centre, but it was Liberal until a few elections ago, and it could now be trending back that way.
15 09 24 Interested Observer
This story is unlikely to matter much. Brunioge won this riding by a huge margin, and he was vocally pro-life.
Incidentally, Giesbrecht is not a 'so-called' scientist. He's a university professor with outstanding credentials. You can disagree with is views on abortion, that doesn't diminish the rest of his background.
15 09 23 Marco Ricci
The press reported today that Conservative candidate Gordon Giesbrecht has become embroiled in a controversy after a video surfaced in which he compared abortion to 9/11 & the Holocaust:
It's always hard to know for sure what type of impact these stories have. It won't necessarily knock him out of the race, but it could cause him to lose votes. Too early to say, but something to keep an eye on.
15 09 23 Monkey Cheese
Well, it appears that this so-called 'scientist' is simply a bible-thumping social Conservative, making controversial remarks comparing abortion to the Holocaust and 9/11. Other Conservative candidates have been dropped for far less offensive comments and I can't see how this is going to sit well with people, especially women. It looks like 'Professor Popsicle' is setting himself up to be the next Stephen Woodsworth mixed wish a dash of Rob Anders and guys like that don't do any favors for the Conservative brand. The Liberals are still polling high in Manitoba and after this, I think one this can probably be called for the Liberals.
15 09 20 R.O.
Although conservative mp Rod Bruinooge isn't running for re-election and conservatives have a new candidate Gordan Geisbrecht. I don't see there being a clear winner here yet as overall election remains close and conservatives still poll well out west. This is somewhat of a swing riding so being open both main candidates have a chance here at this point. In 2011 this riding went conservative by a large margin when Terry Duguid was the liberal candidate . likely a riding that remains too close to call
15 09 03 CGD
Definitely will go Liberal. NDP is looking weak in Manitoba due to the Selinger govt's lack of popularity. Liberals will be the main beneficiaries of the anti-Tory vote in Manitoba.
15 08 17 Monkey Cheese
Given the Harper Government's track record of muzzling scientists, cozying up to Evangelicals, and climate change denial, it is understandable why there is confusion as to why any self-respecting scientist worth their degree would run for the Conservatives. The Liberals still have the advantage with the polling numbers in Winnipeg and with a strong candidate, they should be able to pull this off.
15 08 15
Well this riding could go either way it is advantage Liberals right now. Every poll that has been done in Manitoba shows a close race between Libs and Conservatives with NDP languishing in third. (Reference Mainstreet and Leger Polls). The polling numbers are double what they were in 2011 for the Liberals right now.
While there often is incumbency value the Duguid team came out swinging in the sign war. The riding is noticeably redder than blue right now. Giesbrecht may be a strong candidate but political organization is yet to be tested on his part, even with Bruinooge staff, volunteers, and previous CPC list help.
With Liberal stabilization nationally and CPC numbers dropping this riding is appearing to lean ever so slightly Liberal. Not a lot of breathing room for the Duguid team, but ahead by a nose.
15 08 12 Craig Hubley
308 says 81% chance of Liberal pickup, but the local and candidate factors are very strong here. How can a scientist actually run for Conservatives?
Liberal numbers are slumping everywhere but in favour of the NDP who is in Manitoba not viewed necessarily as a progressive party but as a mainstream provincial party that was disappointing in office to many lifetime supporters. Thus national pro-NDP trends probably don't affect Manitoba much.
15 08 12 Interested Observer
For a Liberal supporter to say 'I don't understand how a scientist can run for the Conservatives', and at the same time predict a Liberal win, kind of misses the point. Giesbrecht is a candidate with appeal beyond the Conservative base. The Liberal numbers in the prairies are not great. Be a close race, but should be a win for the Cons.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
This should not be TCTC. I'm confused as to why a scientist would run for the Conservatives here. Right now the polls are looking at a Liberal sweep of Winnipeg, except for Winnipeg Center. Terry Duguid is a strong candidate who has the polling numbers on his side. He should have no problems winning here.
15 08 04 Monkey Cheese
'Gord' can hand out as many popsicle sticks as he likes, but it won't be enough to beat the Liberals here. The Liberals have a strong candidate and even stronger polling numbers on their side in Winnipeg. This riding is returning to the Liberals.
15 07 21 Dr Bear
The Liberal numbers in Winnipeg continue to be robust and this riding is still listed as strongly Liberal. That's not a cold breeze you're feeling, it's a lot of hot air from Conservative supporters.
15 07 15 Lady Trouble
All Gord has to do is hand out Popsicle sticks, everyone remembers him from Letterman and Mercer. Is that a cold breeze I feel?...that's the Liberal Support freezing up!
15 04 26 Marco Ricci
Unlike in Saint Boniface, where the Conservatives don't appear to have a candidate yet, there are now 2 candidates running for the Tory nomination here: Jarret Hannah, a businessman, and Gordon Giesbrecht, a U of M professor nicknamed 'Popsicle' because of his study of human endurance in cold temperatures!
Whoever wins the nomination will be a solid candidate for the Conservatives, although they will be starting campaigning late in the game. But still a winnable riding for the Cons if Liberal numbers don't hold up.
15 04 23 Locksley
2 new possible opponents for Duguid. 'Dr Popsicle' carries possible name recognition and folksy charm and the younger Jarret Hannah also announced. Curious that Dr. Giesbrecht running in the sciences department I wonder if that matchup is intentional by the Conservatives. But why on earth would a scientist run for the Conservatives!
Anyway I still think Duguid is ahead on this one but things should get more interesting with the Conservative nomination in June.
15 04 22 Stevo
It appears that 'Fairview Resident' believes that the Liberals will win a mega-super-majority of 220 seats with the way he or she is painting virtually every contestable seat in the country red. Terry Duguid is hoping 4th time's a charm (he lost once here and twice in Kildonan) - why not? Gary Doer became Premier on his fourth try, so it doesn't seem like Manitobans apply a 'perennial loser' label to politicians whose time simply hasn't yet come. Remember that Rod Bruinooge's defeat of Reg Alcock in 2006 was one of the most surprising upsets of that election. Shouldn't take too much to push this Liberal again and yet, 'Prairie Liberal' still seems quite a strange concept in the Harper era.
15 04 05 Fairview Resident
Terry Duguid managed to hold his party's vote in 2011 against a two-term incumbent despite the his party's collapse. Bruinooge announced as late as January that he wouldn't seek reelection. With no Tory incumbent, a resurgent Liberal party, and a big head start for Duguid, this looks like a Liberal gain.
15 03 29 monkey
I wouldn't call this for the Liberals yet. They certainly could pick this up, but this is also one of the more affluent areas so a lot will depend on the campaign. Its otherwise a Red Tory/Blue Liberal riding so if the Liberals run on a big spending higher tax platform, it may help them in other Winnipeg ridings but will hurt them here. By contrast if they run on a centrist fiscally responsible but socially progressive one they stand a good chance of picking this up.
15 03 26 Locksley
Terry Duguid has essentially been canvassing in this riding for 5 years, with no CPC candidate at this time he is in the lead. That being said depending on who gets nominated here for the CPC this race is probably still tight enough that Duguid and the Libs should not be breathing too easily just yet.
15 03 25 JC
This is an open seat, the Liberals are very popular in Manitoba at the moment, Duguid should win this without a problem.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
An open seat, in a city where the Liberals have substantial support and a star candidate. I say a Liberal gain.

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