Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Winnipeg South Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-07-29 09:55:21

Constituency Profile


Bateman, Joyce

Carr, Jim

Henderson, Matt

Park, Andrew

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3210.69%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Winnipeg South Centre
   (169/196 polls, 85.85% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Joyce Bateman

   Winnipeg South
   (27/196 polls, 14.15% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rod Bruinooge


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15 10 08 Long Time River Heights Resident
Bateman did NOT say 'enemies of Israel' at the debate - that was said in Dan Letts column .......and was later retracted in the WFP. The 2 candidates she listed are on record as being anti Israel ....... nothing wrong with Bateman pointing that out (by the way - many of those hissing were not directing it at Joyce but at the Liberal Candidates selected to run)
The recent polls for the CPC will help Bateman. She will not win in RH or Riverview - but she will in Tuxedo, Lindenwoods and West Fort Garry (which may surprise some of you - but the people there sure like the Conservatives 'law and order' approach)
15 10 03 Monkey Cheese
Joyce Bateman had her own bozo eruption when she listed several Liberal candidates as 'enemies of Israel'. She was booed and jeered by the heavily Jewish audience who aren't going to be swayed by the politics of fear and division. The Liberal call here is the right one. High Liberal polling numbers in Manitoba and Winnipeg + strong Liberal candidate + lower Conservative numbers = Liberal gain.
15 09 30 Teddy Boragina
The riding poll is flawed.
Why do I say that? A number of reasons.
In 2011, the best Liberal result in Manitoba was here, at 37%
In 2008, again, this was the strongest Liberal riding in the province.
In 2006 this riding was in the top 2 in the province, and the only reason I can't say it was #1 is I'm too lazy to do the math to find out if Saint Boniface beats it.
In short, this is where Liberal voters in Manitoba live.
What do we know?
Well pollsters have been taking a lot of polls.
Most of them use 'Prairies' for SK and Mb combined. In those polls the Liberals average about 25% or more.
We know when we have seen provincial breakdowns that the Liberal vote is heavily weighted towards Manitoba, 30% or more.
We've also seen Manitoba specific polls that confirm this.
In addition, in any regular election, Liberal results within Manitoba re heavily weighted towards Winnipeg. And again, polls confirm this is, again, the case (winnipeg free press poll in particular)
Thus, if the Liberals are at 25% in MB+SK, it is not out of the question to therefore presume they are at 40% in Winnipeg.
And if that is the case, how then, could their BEST Winnipeg riding only be at 38%?
I'll tell you how; we have seen some polls putting the Liberals at 19% in the prairies. Who polled them at that level? Environics, the same people who did the riding poll.
As such, it is simply not reasonable, with just one riding poll from one company, to say the Liberals are anything but 'far ahead' in this riding.
Show me another riding poll, from another company, and I'll reconsider.
15 09 27 Interested Observer
That Probe poll is significant, they're pretty credible and do a lot of Manitoba polling.
In terms of the ground game, driving through the riding, Matt Henderson appears to be more of a factor than Probe or past history would suggest. Sign war, for whatever it's worth, would be pretty close to a 3 way tie. Henderson is a long time teacher in the riding, and appears to be working hard at it. NDP will likely get more of a bounce here than a pure polls and history analysis might suggest. Still an uphill battle for the Dippers, but something of a 3 way race, that probably helps Bateman.
15 09 27 A.S.
Anita Neville's defeat in 2011 marked an end to Western Canada's last bastion of continuous Liberal rule since the Trudeau era (thanks to Lloyd Axworthy having survived the 1984 rout)--but WSC is still Winnipeg's Grit Ground Zero (federally *and* provincially), so that they've a *lot* invested in correcting that 2011 blip, all the more so with Jim 'Better Than Neville' Carr in the driver's seat. But you never know with CPC dirty tricks, particularly if they're apt to turn the Liberals' 'left of the NDP' stance against itself...
15 09 26 Marco Ricci
'Deadlocked in Manitoba' - PROBE (Sept. 2015)
CPC - 39
LPC - 39
NDP - 18
PROBE says the Liberals have gone from a distant 3rd under Ignatieff in 2011 to a tie with the Conservatives, with the NDP being the one in a distant 3rd in 2015.
PROBE also shows the Liberals ahead in both Southwest & Southeast Winnipeg.
This means the Liberals are now in position to win back this traditional Liberal seat.
15 09 15 Marco Ricci
It's interesting to read a few of the posts below reporting that Bateman & the Conservatives have a strong ground game here and will win. Sites like 308 have this riding overwhelmingly leaning Liberal right now (97% chance of Liberal win as of Sept 14, 2015).
This could be a case of where information from the ground can provide insight that a mathematical model cannot capture, and so perhaps the Conservatives are still in the race here, despite the numbers in theory saying otherwise.
However, even if Bateman does have a strong ground game as some posts below claim, does she really have the support to win a historically Liberal riding in a year in which Conservative support is down and Liberal support is up? I don't rule out the possibility, but current numbers and historical patterns are working against Bateman right now.
15 09 11 Rob B
It's way too early to say this is a lock, but if the evolution of sign patterns is any indication, the Tories are in trouble here. After an opening day blitz of signage, the Liberals have pulled well ahead in River Heights and showing strongly everywhere else.
Throw in the fact that Matt Henderson's campaign does not appear to have any traction and that this is the most naturally liberal riding in the City, one has to give the Liberals the inside edge here.
It should be mentioned that the Greens are running a surprisingly visible campaign. They'll finish fourth, but may have a best ever result in terms of final numbers.
15 09 10 Tony Ducey
Carr is a star for the Liberals but I think Bateman's being the incumbent will help her win the seat in a close race.
15 08 24 Jamie Edwards
The CPC has come out aggressive, winning the early sign war and shooting a warning shot across the Liberal bow with a mail drop and radio ads attacking Jim Carr for advocating for a PST increase in 2011. The well organized Bateman campaign, combined with the addition of Lidenwoods and it's 60% CPC polls, and an NDP candidate in Matt Henderson who is working hard in his parties strong areas and hammering the Liberal Carr for his support of privatized health care is making me see this as an upset in the making with the CPC confounding observers and squeaking out the win.
Also of not is the Green Party is running the most organized campaign in the province in this riding, with plenty of signs and volunteers pounding the pavement.
15 08 15 Locksley
This riding has to be a bit of a concern for Jim Carr. A star candidate for the Liberals and pretty much conceded the riding by most pundits things are probably not as easy as they seem. While Carr was getting a major national profile boost by the Trudeau camp Carr was supposed to the be the new face of the Liberals in Manitoba.
The campaign however was pretty slow and sluggish out of the gate, perhaps suggesting some campaign disorganization. Bateman struck first in the sign war and while Carr responded Matt Henderson stormed the riding. Henderson has signs on all the major arteries. While sign war can indicate little in terms of a winner it can work as persuade the undecided on non-engaged as to how the race will play out.
The Carr camp is likely at least a little worried about a three way race now. While with the current numbers in the polls Jim Carr should still easily win the race, a dedicated Henderson camp could change everything. Most likely a split on the left would allow Bateman to win again. Henderson appears the most progressive as Carr represents the right of the Liberal Party.
Still a long way to go and Carr's to lose, but probably more interesting than it was before. The hipster and youth vote in Osborne tends to vote NDP but will they vote in enough numbers and will Carr find all the votes he needs in River Heights, Fort Rouge, and Tuxedo to defeat Bateman.
Should be interesting
15 08 12 Interested Observer
Carr has a little bit of profile, but he's not exactly a star. Neither is Bateman, but incumbency, plus mediocre Liberal numbers in the prairies should mean that this one is a hold for the Cons.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
With an excellent candidate in Jim Carr, President and CEO of the Business Council of Manitoba and former MLA who will likely end up in cabinet if the Liberals form government, the Liberals should have no problems winning here. As Monkey Cheese noted, they are polling extremely well here. If those numbers are to be believed it won't even be close, it will be a landslide. Easy Liberal pickup.
15 08 04 Monkey Cheese
I agree with 'Dr. Bear'. The Liberals are polling extremely well in their former stronghold of Winnipeg. Jim Carr is a strong candidate and 308 has him winning with a 92% confidence. Joyce will lose.
15 08 02 Vlad
This seat is getting more suburban, pushing the CPC margin up to over 2,000 votes from 700 in 2011. It's not a lot but will make a difference. Joyce Bateman, who has been in politics here for some time, is probably better known in the riding than Jim Carr, whose profile is pretty low outside of elite circles. His campaign has been a lot less active than other Winnipeg Liberals, presumably thinking they can coast. It will cost them. They're now facing a resilient CPC and a stronger than usual local NDP effort. CPC hold.
15 08 02 R.O.
Well this has historically been a liberal riding , the conservative incumbent is at least running for re-election unlike some other Winnipeg ridings . Joyce Bateman has been mp for 4 years now and that might be worth more than some posters give her credit for. the liberal mp she beat Anita Neville is also not back and liberals have a new candidate so not sure how that changes things. The race will likely remain close here as its been a close riding the last few elections .
15 07 21 Dr Bear
Liberal numbers continue to be robust in their former Winnipeg strongholds. The alleged scandals that other posters have mentioned don't seem to be hitting Jim Carr at the moment. Looks like a certain Liberal take-back.
15 07 15 Lady Trouble
Joyce will win! She's done a good job plus Jim Carr seems to be caught up in this scandal in the Interlake and he advocates for an increase in the Provincial Sales a Tax, it's in the Free Press by an article written by him so it must be true. The NDP have a good candidate too. The new boundaries favour Joyce even the Free Press admitted that today.
15 07 07 Matt Weibe
The addition of Lidenwoods, and the CPC's continued strong support of Israel which appeals to the River Heights Jewish community might just be enough for a CPC hold. Matt Henderson's aggressive NDP campaign, already attacking Jim Carr for positions on privatizing health care and market rate tuition will make Liberal inroads in picking up soft NDP votes harder for them. Plus Jim Carr's past support for the PST increase will be a game changer with those blue Liberals in the area.
15 04 26 Docere
This is the lowest hanging fruit for the Liberals in Winnipeg, having only narrowly lost here in 2011. The provincial riding of River Heights is contained in this riding and it is the only Liberal seat in the Manitoba legislature.
15 04 05 Fairview Resident
Anita Neville was the last Liberal standing in Manitoba in 2008. The Tories managed to narrowly beat her in 2011 when they beat the Liberals by 37% in MB. Manitoba is now a race between the Liberals and Tories with a single digit margin separating the two. Joyce Bateman has not been a particularly strong MP - against a candidate like Jim Carr, she can't beat the spread.
15 03 29 monkey
Despite the riding changes making this somewhat more favourable to the Tories, the unpopularity of the provincial NDP causing the NDP to implode will ensure enough NDP voters swing over to the Liberals to win this even if the Tories hold their vote.
15 03 26 Locksley
The Liberals are sure to win this as is with the current national polling levels. Jim Carr is a much better candidate than Anita Neville was last go around. Still if Trudeau flops like Ignatieff in a campaign than the prospect of CPC hold doesn't seem outlandish as it did even in 2011.
15 03 25 JC
Jim Carr is a great candidate for the Liberals, I would even go so far as to say he will probably be in Cabinet if they win the election, as for Joyce Bateman? I'm think she's going to be on the backbenches and also won a fluke election when the Liberals were at their lowest point. She's done.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
This is a straight up #LibCon race. Jim Carr is President and CEO of the Business Council of Manitoba; Former Member of the Manitoba Legislative Assembly for Crescentwood and Fort Rouge, and probably a star candidate, being a member of the Order of Manitoba.
At least by comparison to Joyce Bateman, whose track record includes taking 'credit' for transferring ownership of the Experimental Lakes Area to the IISD and the provinces of Manitoba and Ontario, when Harper federal budget cuts nearly resulted in its closure and total loss of science value. Bateman had echoed the Harper regime claim that 'the research the ELA conducts no longer aligns with the Department of Fisheries and Oceans' priorities'. Which ELA achievements included continent-wide policy shifts on acid rain, changes to the construction of hydroelectric dams, a ban on phosphorus in detergents and huge advancements in combating the algae that pollute Lake Winnipeg. Accordingly Bateman was trying to paper over truly outrageous science sabotage and a government determined to undermine every scientific effort that might cast light on pollution or ecological damage.
In an April 2014 recorded message for a constituent, Joyce Bateman was caught lying about CBC funding cuts, claiming that 'from a government perspective we are giving them as much taxpayer money as they ever have received.' However, in 2011, the federal government announced that $115 million funding would be eliminated from the CBC budget over three years, with the final $45-million cut occurring in 2014. When asked, Joyce Bateman acknowledged that she was not entirely clear when she told the constituent that the federal government was not making any cuts to the CBC. Ms. Bateman's assistant clarified that she was trying to explain there were no newly announced cuts coming to the CBC.
It's incumbents like this that make opposition parties very very happy.

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