Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-06 23:33:30

Constituency Profile


Anaquod, Della

Chatterson, Greg

Kuyek, Nial

Scheer, Andrew

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1270.42%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (164/181 polls, 97.71% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Andrew Scheer

   (3/181 polls, 1.54% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Ray Boughen

   Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
   (7/181 polls, 0.45% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Tom Lukiwski

   (5/181 polls, 0.29%of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Garry Breitkreuz

   (2/181 polls, 0.01% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Lynne Yelich


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15 09 28 A.S.
Well, why not a defeated Speaker? And in fact, the rural parts here have been historically somewhat 'NDP-friendly' by rural Sask standards. That is, if voters were motivated enough to reject the status quo, much less to unite under one brand, i.e. if the resurgent Grits are killing the NDP in Lewvan, they're surely doing so here, too. And on the whole, Scheer carries his Speakerdom more as plus than minus--for him to go down would be generic rather than as a specific target...
15 09 16 Teddy Boragina
Normally I only post a new prediction the day of (or after) a prediction change to disagree with it, but I'm doing the opposite here. I think the call for this going Conservative is the right call. Scheer is the speaker, and speakers rarely lose their seats. It's possible, but less likely than if he was a seal (IE some random backbencher)
The big thing, however, in favour of the Tories is that unlike the 5 other ridings with Regina or Saskatoon in their name, this one contains a huge rural area. This is the only 'combined' (rural/urban) riding left in the province, and since 2004 the Conservatives have done *very* well in these sort of ridings.
15 09 08 Brian Lonsdale
Andrew Scheer should pull this off.
This race isn't quite as close as people make it out to be. The NDP hasn't had the traction it should have had in this race and when the votes are tallied at the end of the election, it could well be that the Liberals get more votes than the NDP in Manitoba/Saskatchewan.
While the NDP will do better with redistribution and the fact that Saskatoon and Regina are now more urbanized ridings (a much better idea) than split into a mix of urban/rural will see the NDP do better in the cities, but Scheer will probably be the one Conservative to retain one of the more urbanized seats of Saskatchewan.
15 08 23 Terry The Canadian
This riding was solid for the NDP for decades. With the Conservatives down from 56% (2011 election) to 39% in Saskatchewan according to the latest polls and the NDP on the rise, watch this one go to the NDP's Nial Kuyek.
15 08 20 Laurence Putnam
A sitting Speaker of the House has not lost their seat in Canada since 1984....and this isn't shaping up to be that kind of election. The NDP has always maintained a bedrock of support in this riding going back through the Nystrom years, but it's waned recently. The NDP may be up, but not enough, I don't think, to buck history and unseat a sitting Speaker.
15 08 12 Craig Hubley
308 does *NOT* validate the NDP claim to this riding, has it at 73% Con chance to win as of mid August. Someone is confusing it with another riding. NDP definitely far ahead of Liberal so educating voters that the effective vote against Harper is NDP in this riding will be very important.
That kind of voter education - and signing up of marginal voters far more likely to support the NDP - is easier to accomplish in these more urban-heavy ridings than in the vast rural ones. So despite 308's call for the Cons, it's still a good shot as an NDP pickup if the work is done.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
The NDP shouldn't be counted out here. As others have mentioned, the NDP are polling very well in Saskatchewan these days. I suspect that many Canadians haven't been impressed with Scheer's role as Speaker. He comes across as more of a government lackey than a fully independent Speaker. However, he will have an incumbency bump and there will be enough people who like being represented by the Speaker. This is a competitive riding to watch and I'll revisit it closer to the election day.
15 08 04 Monkey Cheese
TCTC is probably the right call for now, but don't be surprised if the NDP win here. They have been polling quite well in Saskatchewan lately and 308 currently has them with a 50% confidence in this riding. The Conservative incumbent is the Speaker and you'd think that having such a high profile candidate would mean stronger polling numbers for them. The Conservatives just might find themselves kicked out of Regina and Saskatoon.
15 08 02 R.O.
This riding hasn't been as close is the other Regina or Saskatoon ridings in recent elections and wasn't redistributed as much either . combine that with Andrew Scheer having the high profile position of speaker of the house of commons . it appears conservatives have the advantage here and not one of the saskatchewan ridings where ndp has an advantage.
15 04 30 Aaron H.
I love how Logan Bobetsis says that Scheer has made no major blunders. It is pretty hard to make a blunder when, as Speaker of the House of Commons, you really aren't allowed to hold any opinions. If he makes a blunder as Speaker, it is generally ignored outside of those who follow parliamentary procedure.
However, Scheer is likely to win this riding because you cannot get any higher profile than being Speaker and being shown on television screens frequently during newscasts even though he doesn't ever say anything except the most banal things such as calling members to 'order' and deciding who speaks next.
15 03 29 Logan Bobetsis
No significant changes to riding, remains urban-rural split. Scheer is high profile and hasn't had any major blunders. Should be an easy hold.
15 03 29 monkey
Unlike the other two Regina ridings which are largely urban, this is still a mixed urban/rural one meaning the Tory strength in rural parts should allow them to win this even though they will likely lose in the Regina parts. In fact Regina looks ripe for electing one of each national party (NDP in Regina-Lewvan, Tories in Regina-Qu'Appelle, and Liberals in Regina-Wascana.)

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