Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

North Island-Powell River

Prediction Changed
2015-07-05 20:42:56

Constituency Profile


Blaney, Rachel

Sayers, Brenda

Schwarzhoff, Peter

Smith, Laura

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3670.72%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Vancouver Island North
   (207/247 polls, 81.17% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. John Duncan

   West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
   (40/247 polls, 18.83% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

John Weston


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15 10 14 Mark in Mexico
The last three kicks at the can this riding was TCTC as the NDP and CPC basically fought to a draw in the low-40s as the CPC won government. In 2004, they fought to a draw in the mid-30s as the Liberals formed government. Swapping out Courtenay for Powell River seems to have changed nothing. Both parties have come down from their BC high water marks of 2011, but the CPC has dropped more. That should favour the NDP, but seriously, after four consecutive razor-thin battles, it's hard to imagine this riding being anything but...TCTC.
15 10 11 Island Rancher
The continuous underestimation of the political left leaning pundits in this riding show an incredible lack of knowledge of on the ground politics of the region. The rural and heavily Agricultural areas of this constituency coupled with the very strong other independant Primary resource industries...Forestry, Mining, Fishing, Aquaculture et al in the towns (Comox, Campbell River, Port Hardy, Powell River, Port McNeill, Sayward, Gold River, northern Comox Valley)themselves tend to concentrate the votes of this region to a more laissez fair doctrine. The people here overwhelmingly hold strong Libertarian viewpoints regardless of their actual votes on election day as well, witnessed by the strong Reform vote of the past; I think the battle for that historically small margin between left and right will be fought in those rural polls...Black Creek, Tsolum River, Headquarters, Merville, Grantham, Dove Creek, Miracle Beach, Lazo, Oyster River, of the northern Comox Valley. Interestingly enough, the usually left leaning Insights West polls that regulary get done in our riding coupled with the definately lefty Dogwood Initiative have been busy in the last 2 weeks and we havent seen any of them published...likely because they are not liking what they are seeing, a shift in decided voters to the Conservative vote. Polls done at the same time in other Island constituencies, that they like and wish to influence with, have been published....It always says something. Regardless, Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
15 10 07 A.S.
John Duncan's moving elsewhere is evidence enough of the Cons' slipping grip; and Powell River might actually improve things for the NDP considering that the riding it *was* a part of is one where the Dippers had no chance. But as always on Vancouver, it's all a matter of what the Green vote does, where it goes, whom it takes from, etc...
15 10 01 Craig Hubley
I can't believe any neutral poll shows the Greens at 32%. Was that a 'push poll', where the questions are slanted to get a strong result for propaganda purposes? Or an online poll where respondents self-select?
The NDP slump and Conservative rise in BC has made this call for the NDP questionable. I think it's too close to call and will remain so until election day. If the Greens remain a factor here, all the more reason to avoid calling it. I don't see this as the primary target for donations, volunteers or vote swaps for Greens (who do target across ridings in far greater numbers than other parties), but if it becomes so, then it's just even more volatile, since those factors won't even bee easily seen until after the advance vote period.
15 09 29 Dr. J.
This is far from being in the NDP fold. The Greens are pushing hard; May has been visiting. They won't win, but they may draw off enough votes from the the NDP to allow the Conservative to come up the middle. I would say TCTC or maybe even leaning Conservative.
15 09 12 Adeline96
There's absolutely no way the Conservatives are taking this riding, or any on Vancouver Island for that matter, this election. The NDP are coming on strong and the Tory candidate is unfortunately part of the Staffer-turned-candidate class which comes out to run at the end of political dynasties (similar to the large uptick of staffers running for the Liberals in 2006).
15 09 09 R.O.
This was mostly John Duncans old riding of Vancouver Island North but he decided to run in Courtenay Alberni instead . so its an open race with no incumbent. Laura Smith is the new conservative candidate and Rachel Blaney is new ndp candidate , neither have run federally before. Both harper and muclair have been to this area of bc so far this election and redistributed numbers created a very close riding. ndp have somewhat of an advantage as they poll well in bc but still a lot of campaign left
15 08 28 Griffin Lea
With the recent Insights West poll showing a tightening two way race on the Island, the Green Party is clearly within striking distance of taking any or even all of the Island ridings. The poll put the Green Party at 32% (up 12 points from 20% three months ago) and the NDP at 39% (down 7 points from 46%). This is incredibly huge momentum. When combined with the great candidates in every Island riding as well as the fact that the Green Party will now benefit from Liberal and Conservative voters who are wary of an NDP majority and interested in doing something exciting with their vote, the whole island may very well get painted Green. Brenda Sayers has a great shot here.
15 08 09 Anna Rasmund
Calling this NDP for reasons others have explained, but also these factors:
The Conservatives have championed Shell having 21 days to get emergency response equipment in place for an offshore oil well blowout, arguing it's 'too expensive' to respond in the 24 hours that Alaskan courts mandated recently. West coast voters are very painfully sensitive of the risk of another Exxon Valdez or bitumen tanker incident and the impact on fishery and tourism. The difference between 24 hours and 21 days is going to make a lot of formerly Conservative voters sit on their hands out of sheer fear.
Liberal votes are sure to slip back to NDP as their national hopes fade. In this riding, the tactical or effective vote has long been NDP not Liberal.
Friends and family in Yukon, Saanich-Gulf and Victoria will be voting Green in larger numbers than before, and probably asking their north coastal BC friends and family to vote NDP for more effective anti-Harper votes and a coastline entirely free of Conservatives. Formal vote swaps and campaigns like Leadnow will have some influence but more importantly, everyone on the west coast knows someone living north of them and also south of them, and they definitely talk about all these three way races.
The huge swing for Elizabeth May in Saanich-Gulf in 2011 was an example of this kind of consensus. It will benefit the NDP in this riding in 2015, and it will benefit other Greens elsewhere (definitely Yukon, maybe Victoria). But the NDP needs a quid pro quo and this seat is part of it.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
As is becoming apparent in the Island, there is an increasing anti-Harper sentiment that is corralling behind the NDP. The Conservatives have been falling behind in recent BC polls and this riding is no exception. With no incumbent to help the Tories out, this is a riding that will turn orange. The polls have the NDP surging in the Island and that will carry them here.
15 08 05 Dr Bear
Open seat located on Vancouver Island + soaring NDP numbers in BC = easy NDP pick up.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
CPC incumbent Duncan has switched to a safer riding, leaving this an open seat. Considering the dislike of the CPC on Vancouver Island, this will likely go NDP. The only wildcard is the CPC support on the mainland part of the riding. If it bleeds to the LPC and NDP, then it is a sure NDP Seat.
15 05 16 Gillian
Islanders hate Harper. The NDP has been growing in the riding in every election (2000, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011). The old riding also went NDP before in 2006. Easy NDP pick-up.
15 04 03 BJ
This riding has many of the same demographic and other characteristics as neighbouring Courtenay-Alberni.
The underlying provincial ridings include:
1. Comox Valley: During the 2013 BC election, the provincial NDP popular vote share dropped by 4% here. This area also is a major retiree area and continues to see an influx and growth especially in Albertan retirees. Also fertile ground for the Green Party.
2. North Island: The combined BC Liberal and BC Conservative popular vote share here increased by 10% in 2013. Forestry and mining are also major economic contributors here and the NDP brand has been tarnished with their apparent anti-resource stance on many fronts.
3. Powell River on the mainland (part of a riding), which the CPC garnered roughly half in 2011.
Again, the Liberals will see an uptick in their vote share here and the Greens will also see a major popular vote share increase - especially in the Comox Valley.
The CPC winning margin here was 4% in 2011. With the same approximate vote share in 2008, the CPC winning margin still increased to 7% based upon transposed results. Higher Liberal and Green vote share in 2008 came at entirely expense of NDP. As with the rest of Vancouver Islands ridings, both the Green as well as Liberal popular vote share will even be higher than 2008.
The 2nd ?safest? CPC on Vancouver Island. For what that is worth.
15 03 29 monkey
Close CPC-NDP battle an could go either way. A lot will depend on who the Greens or Liberals take votes from as neither will win but they will be kingmakers.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
Craig can keep talking about how the tories won't win a seat, likely while he keeps sitting smoking a pipe with other BC lefties. The fact is just like the rest of the province, the Liberals are stronger, the NDP weaker. Yes, the Conservatives will lose votes, but the NDP will lose more. Anyone protesting the pipeline, C-51, or for aboriginal issues did not vote CPC in 2011. This holds as a CPC win, expand the 5 point margin to 8.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
I expect a general Island surge of 5-10% away from Conservatives to *ANYONE* else, with the Greens getting all the votes that can't stand to go NDP or Liberal, on the sheer strength of May as a coastal advocate.
If the NDP gets their share of that, plus Green votes swapped or tactically cast, they win this, as the obvious anti-Harper candidate.
Leaving the Gulf Islands territory to the Greens as a quid pro quo would guarantee this to the NDP, but they aren't necessarily that smart. We'll see, but I call it for them unless they disastrously target the Greens in Saanich-Gulf.

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