Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:35:41

Constituency Profile


Bourdeau, Guillaume

Coly, René-Paul

D'Eer, Alain

Moisan-Domm, Samuel

Paul-Hus, Pierre

Pronovost, Joey


Pierre Paul-Hus

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



111.44 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pierre Paul-Hus 2460842.20%
Jean Côté 1352523.20%
Anne-Marie Day ** 1169020.10%
Marc Antoine Turmel 717712.30%
Nathalie Baudet 12562.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1890.35%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.41% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
The CPC will lose some seats on Monday in Quebec but I think they're safe here. CPC hold.
06/10/19 R.O.
A suburban Quebec City seat the cpc has typically done well in with exception of ndp surge of 2011. Current mp Pierre Paul Hus should be able to hold the riding.
07/09/19 A.S.
Unlike Beauport-Limoilou, this is overwhelmingly suburban--the ‘softest’ parts are in the far south, btw/old Charlesbourg and Limoilou, and it isn't enough. In B-L IN '15, the combined Lib-NDP vote outpolled CPC by 20 points; in CHSC, the outpolling was only by 1 point--and it's not like those two votes will actually, cleanly combine or anything...
19/05/19 Sam
One of the recent Conservative strongholds in Quebec, this will stay Conservative. Quebec City is becoming the most Conservative city outside the west, more so than the York region ones.
06/04/19 Legolas
As with the other suburban Quebec City seats, the Conservatives won them by decent margins in 2015 and there is no way they are losing them while polling even better for this election.
25/02/19 J.F. Breton
Easy gain for PCC in Quebec City area. Pierre Paul-Hus will easily have the support of the CAQ and Quebec 21 members. Same DNA.

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