Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Robert Libman **
|Mario Jacinto Rimbao
|Jade Bossé Bélanger
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(100% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|The Jewish riding in Montreal, the Conservatives had a perfect storm situation in 2011 and still came up short. There is less enthusiasm for Scheer than Harper in the Jewish community. Asserting his pro-Israel bonda fides from opposition rather than as PM isn't as convincing, particularly when Trudeau passes the pro-Israel litmus test for those who aren't Conservative partisans. Anthony Housefather will easily prevail - it won't even be close. Orthodox turnout may be low - which is a further advantage to the Liberals.|
|Back in the Harper days there was much talk the CPC could win here. That never happened and it won't happen in 2019. Liberal hold.|
|It's in "pretty sorry shape" as a Grit stronghold only because of the Cons' extraordinarily successful raiding of the CSL/Hampstead Jewish vote base--but there's a ceiling to that. And it's not like any other party (except, perhaps, the Greens) is poised to erode the Lib-parked left-vote relative to where they stood in 2015. So, Horsefeathers Schwimmer doesn't look endangered; and who knows if Trump's antics are even making Jewish voters question their parking themselves in blue over the past generation...|
|Measured purely against its' own standard of a Liberal "bastion", Mount Royal is in pretty sorry shape these days; results of the past few elections don't at all resemble the 80-90%+ results the Liberals would routinely command here in the '90s and early 2000s.|
Still, for 2019 there's no doubt that the riding of Trudeau Sr. will once again return a Liberal, as it has done in every election and by-election since 1940.
|Anthony Housefather may not be the best MP, but he'll be re-elected. This riding's never sent anyone who hasn't been a Liberal to Ottawa. Don't think anything'll change this time. It's true that the Conservatives have become competitive in this riding and have been close, but close isn't good enough. Liberal hold.|
|Leaning Liberal for now, but yes, the Conservatives will continue to have a competitive base here. New Conservative candidate David Tordjman is a decent choice, but probably has a lesser profile than Robert Libman did.|
With Liberal support now leveling off in Quebec, it's possible they could lose a few points here. But it's also possible that the Conservatives are also reaching their maximum here and may not be as popular under Scheer as they were under Harper.
Anthony Housefather is probably also a stronger *campaigner* than Irwin Cotler. Cotler was well-respected as an intellectual & a legal scholar, but was not known as an assertive campaigner on the hustings. Housefather was Mayor before he was MP and is more used to the cut & thrust of getting votes compared to Cotler, who came from the academic world.
|It's been over a month since anyone has weighed in on this riding, so I will jump in and say Mont Royal remains the Tories' best chance of a breakthrough on the Island, with Lac St Louis a close second. |
Since the last time I checked in, Trudeau's popularity and most of credibility has taken several more hits, and provincial results are still indicating thatthere is an anger in the land and it is focused on one Justin Trudeau.
While, given Quebec's own cap and Trade program, the carbon tax is not an issue in Quebec other things such as the laicization bill is, and Trudeau's attacks on the popular Francois Legault government are not playing well in Francophone Quebec. While this riding is known as an anglo riding, there are a significant number of Francophones here. That is one factor. Moreover, the Green party has seen an uptick in its numbers nationally, and may well be seen as an option for those on the left looking for an alternative to Trudeau and his corruption and incompetence.
If there is enopugh of a shift to the Greens from the Liberals, and Francophones consolidate around the Tories, then Housefather is no longer a shoo in.
Moreover, the Tories have wisely chosen David Tordjman as their standard bearer, and their unwavering support for Israel will continue to help build Tory strength in this riding.
Given history, I still give the Liberals a very slight edge, but an edge is all it is. This one could go either way.
If the Green surge turns into a Green wave (which it will if Jody and Jane sign on) all bets are off and we may have to give the slight edge to the Tories.
Either way, this one is a toss up until the votes are counted.
||Shiraz Keushgerian |
|Anthony Housefather is a very popular MP in this riding. I attended a town hall he did this week and he is constantly present and has been very successful in making the federal MP seem relevant on local issues. Easy Liberal hold.|
|While the Conservatives will definitely crack 30% of the vote here and be their best seat on the island, playing footsie with the CAQ will not play well in Anglo Quebec, especially with many of their candidates coming from the CAQ ranks. Housefather won comfortably in 2015 and the Liberals have still been fairly strong on Israel, so he will probably still win with 45%+.|
|Might be a bit much for Conservatives to dream of not only defeating the Trudeau Liberals in the election but also take out Mount Royal - once the epicentre of the Laurentian elites, held by Liberals since 1935, former seat of Justin's father. They came within 6 points in 2011 but that was in a strong national majority which is very unlikely to repeat this year. But if York-Centre can go from being the strongest Liberal seat in Toronto to the weakest, who's to say Mount Royal can't do likewise in Montreal.|
|This one's hard to tell. On the one hand, it's always been safe Liberal, and if they're holding up here no party will overtake them. On the other hand, they have Conservatives who will aggressively target this and an incumbent who isn't as strong as Irwin Cotler was. A Liberal hold seems the more likely of the two, but things could change.|
|At this point I will say that it is premature to call this one for the Liberals so early. Anthony Housefather has made a horse's backside of himself as an MP and especially in the Matter of Jody Wilson Raybould, a matter on which he had no real business weighing in on. He has been a lightweight at best.|
This was definitely the Conservatives' best shot in Montreal in the last two elections, and perhaps Cote St. Luc City Councillor David Tordjman might be the third time charm, and end the nearly 80 year Liberal reign here.
|Mount Royal may have lost its historical status as the safest Liberal seat in the country, but it remains solidly in the Liberal column.|