Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|John Duncan **
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(68.84% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Vancouver Island North
(31.16% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|There has been an insane amount of campaign stops on Vancouver Island by Jagmeet Singh and Elizabeth May this election. Although Scheer also visited the area early in the campaign. It points to some very close and interesting ndp/green races. This had been part of former cpc mp John Duncans riding, he had represented this area for a long time but isnt back this year. Cpc has a new candidate Bryon Horner. Gord Johns is trying to keep the riding for the ndp after his 2015 victory , the green candidate is Sean Wood.|
|Island voters are smart & prudent enough to make simple friend & family swap deals across these riding borders:|
I know you like the Greens but cast an NDP vote there and I'll vote Green here where they can win . We gotta keep the Cons out..
Admittedly such swaps are far more appealing if the NDP itself has no chance to win, since an NDP supporter could defect to get two effective NDP votes. But most Islanders are just more anti-Conservative than partisan. They know what's at stake: A twenty billion dollar oil spill with just two billion in coverage .. if that. They will shake hands, hold noses & keep Cons out.
|The Conservatives indeed shouldnt be ruled out, particularly in light of their nudging ahead of the NDP in the Nanaimo-Ladysmith byelection--then again, the Parksville-Qualicum element didnt prevent Gord Johns from turning in a better NDP result than everything else btw/here and Victoria (though that may be because CouAlbs a bit too resource/retirement-based for the scale of Green support that was more common down-island)|
|People here like Johns. He is (enormously) energetic and was on the ocean plastics issue before it was cool, helping convert it from a local issue to a government priority. He should keep some of the Environment-vote with him but the Greens will siphon some off. The Conservatives are clearly investing here and Horner has been raising his profile for several months now. The Greens and Liberals are running lower profile candidates and will likely take 10-20% each, leaving this between the NDP and Conservatives to decide.|
|I'm going on a bit of a limb here and am going to suggest that the Tories will come up the middle here. |
It's hardly unthinkable. The Conservatives routinely won it with John Duncan as recently as 2011 and provincially it's the surest bet for the BC Liberals on the Island; provincial NDP haven't won it since the mid-90's. This is owing to the higher income/retirement population in Parksville, Qualicum and the Comox-Courtenay area, which has seen a big influx of Albertans in the last 10-15 years.
Combine that together with the 3-way progressive vote split that's shaping up; the Greens climbing the polls, they certainly get at least 20 or 25% here. As with the by-election in Nanaimo the Liberals will probably drop a lot. NDP only need to bleed a few points to lose it and they're bleeding points right now all over the place; nationally, on the island, whichever poll you look at.
The Conservative candidate hit the ground running early and his Parksville campaign office appears to be both visible and busy. If he can run up the numbers in the Parksville-Qualicum part of the riding and marry that to a decent showing in the Courtenay/Comox area then he may have a win here if he's weak in Port Alberni. The demographics of those areas, I think, favour the Tories here, at least given the left wing vote split.
|The Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election results have pushed the Greens as a competitor in this riding, despite it being one of their poorer showings on the island in 2015. With the possibility of the winner failing to break 30% the Conservatives also have a great chance at winning due to vote-splitting. Would it be enough to scare potential Green voters to stick with the NDP?|
|While the Conservatives (and provincially, the BC Liberals) have collapsed on most of Vancouver Island, this is probably the riding they have the best chance of taking back. The NDP will be hard-pressed to keep the vote they had in 2015, while the Liberal vote will likely collapse. The wild card is the Greens.|
I don't think the Greens can overtake everyone here being less of an environmentally-minded region than the south Island, but they can certainly play spoiler. This could be a potential 3 way race - likely a close battle between the NDP and Conservatives with the Greens a few points behind them.
|It looks like that the Conservatives have a shot here, and they might win by under 5 points if the Green were to play spoiler here. Gord Johns still has the upper hand, although he's more probably vulnerable than his neighbours in North Island and Cowichan-M-L.|
|Vancouver Island was somewhat of an anomaly in 2015 as while both the Conservatives and NDP lost a significant chunk of the national vote to the Liberals, the NDP only lost a marginally small fraction of the overall popular vote on the Island (ironically winning all but May's seat thanks to FPTP) while the Conservatives lost significantly. This was especially so in this riding, where Johns only lost less than 3% of the vote in comparison to the redistributed 2011 results, while John Duncan lost quite a bit, mostly to the Liberal candidate. This time around, however, the Liberals are likely not going to gain anything and the Greens are high in the polls, so I'd expect this to be a close race between the NDP and the Conservatives, with the Greens possibly not too far behind if they campaign well enough. I'm nonetheless leaning slightly towards the NDP on this one, but not enough for this not to be a TCTC.|