Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:09:18

Constituency Profile


Dipietra-Cudmore, Natalie

Farstad, Kaija

Jensen, Leon

Joehl, Alex

Van Popta, Tako

Wakelin, Stacey


Mark Warawa

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



374.03 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mark Warawa ** 2733345.60%
Leon Jensen 2189436.60%
Margot Sangster 749012.50%
Simmi Saminder Kaur Dhillon 26444.40%
Lauren Southern 5350.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2640.59%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.37% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.63% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 R.O.
There is no incumbent in this riding, Mark Warawa passed away earlier in 2019 but had already planned to retire. Long time conservative area of BC, one would except it to stay cpc this year. Tako Van Popta is the new cpc candidate this year. The liberal from 2015 Leon Jensen returned to take another shot .
18/09/19 A.S.
So thanks to 2015's electoral sorting, Langley City's become the official red/blue border post for Greater Vancouver; and this is the first riding on the far side of that frontier. One *might* deduce that said frontier shall inexorably move eastward, particularly in Warawa's absence with his 2015 Liberal opponent running again; though I'd think of such a trend as longer-term and a bit on the conditional side--after all, things *do* take a turn for the evangelical-exurban around these parts, and that's a tough nut to crack or override. For now the ‘Liberalest’ parts are Gordon/Walnut Grove/Fort Langley in the NW (which seem more of a ‘Surrey continuum’), and downtown Aldergrove (here we go again, LPC as the ‘urban party’--and Aldergrove also contained 2017's only provincial NDP polls within these boundaries)
18/07/19 Laurence Putnam
From somewhere up above, Mark Warawa will be smiling down on his riding when they return his Conservative successor to Ottawa on election night.
22/06/19 Mark in Mexico
RIP Mark Warawa. This riding stays blue.
28/04/19 Sam
Big shoes to fill, but there's a whole batch of people for the Conservatives to choose from here, some quite talented, and most good enough that they should cruise to re-election even with the closer than expected call last time. I just don't see any other party winning here. The Liberal party of today and the NDP aren't suited to the Fraser Valley. (especially the 'Bible Belt' element of it)
23/02/19 M. Lunn
Notwithstanding Mark Warawa's resignation, this is part of the Fraser Valley bible belt so I suspect it will stay Tory as usual, the real question is how competitive it is. If close then another Liberal majority, but if the Tories win this by a landslide then Liberals may lose their majority.

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