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New Westminster-Burnaby
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:09:28
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Davis, Will

de Montigny, Suzanne

Ginn, Hansen

Julian, Peter

Murarka, Neeraj

Passyar, Ahmad

Theriault, Joseph

Veck, Megan


Incumbent:

Peter Julian

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

115340
108652

51057
48649

26.30 km²
4386.0/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Peter Julian ** 2287643.50%
Sasha Ramnarine 1525329.00%
Chloé Ellis 1051220.00%
Kyle Routledge 24874.70%
Rex Brocki 13682.60%
Joseph Theriault 1460.30%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1423134.76%
2120051.78%
35628.70%
17734.33%
Other 1770.43%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Burnaby-New Westminster
   (68.71% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   New Westminster-Coquitlam
   (31.29% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


17/10/19 R.O.
24.146.17.200
The ndp have improved enough in the polls it would seem that mp’s like Peter Julian will get back in. although the riding has seen close races in the past.
18/09/19 A.S.
99.225.32.21
I *could* allow for Peter Julian's loss, though that's becoming less likely as Jagmeet overachieves on the hustings and single-digit fourth place no longer necessarily seems Dipper predestiny. Though one thing I'm wondering about: would the NDP have won within these boundaries in 1993 and 1997? (I know 2000 was a write-off.)
11/09/19 ME
45.72.160.71
Outside of Vancouver East the NDP does not have a safe seat in BC.. The Collapse will take many good NDP MP'S out.
21/06/19 Laurence Putnam
96.53.49.70
Even in a struggling year for the NDP, Peter Julian has ensconced his reputation as an effective MP for the area over the past 15 years and should be able to win easily on his own merit alone. In any scenario where that by itself is insufficient, this is a seat where the leadership of Jagmeet Singh is probably of some benefit too, as he is running in the adjacent riding.
19/04/19 Richmondite
70.79.252.121
No question that this riding is safely in the NDP's pocket. Arguably the 2nd safest seat for the NDP in Metro Vancouver after Vancouver East and along with Vancouver Kingsway.
16/03/19 Sam
86.156.206.227
The 2013 redistribution really helped the NDP here, and so Peter Julian has this in the bag. He's a great candidate as it is.
16/03/19 Laurence Putnam
50.68.187.24
I often disagree with Miles Lunn, but he's bang on the money with this one.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
This riding includes all of New Westminster which is a very strong NDP area. Even in the 90s when the NDP was in the teens in BC, they still were competitive here and likewise provincially this area has gone NDP every election since WWII save the 2001 meltdown so unless the NDP gets completely wiped off the map, this should stay in their column even if they suffer major losses elsewhere.



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