Election Prediction Project

New Westminster-Burnaby
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:09:28

Constituency Profile


Davis, Will

de Montigny, Suzanne

Ginn, Hansen

Julian, Peter

Murarka, Neeraj

Passyar, Ahmad

Theriault, Joseph

Veck, Megan


Peter Julian

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



26.30 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Peter Julian ** 2287643.50%
Sasha Ramnarine 1525329.00%
Chloé Ellis 1051220.00%
Kyle Routledge 24874.70%
Rex Brocki 13682.60%
Joseph Theriault 1460.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1770.43%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Burnaby-New Westminster
   (68.71% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   New Westminster-Coquitlam
   (31.29% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 R.O.
The ndp have improved enough in the polls it would seem that mp’s like Peter Julian will get back in. although the riding has seen close races in the past.
18/09/19 A.S.
I *could* allow for Peter Julian's loss, though that's becoming less likely as Jagmeet overachieves on the hustings and single-digit fourth place no longer necessarily seems Dipper predestiny. Though one thing I'm wondering about: would the NDP have won within these boundaries in 1993 and 1997? (I know 2000 was a write-off.)
11/09/19 ME
Outside of Vancouver East the NDP does not have a safe seat in BC.. The Collapse will take many good NDP MP'S out.
21/06/19 Laurence Putnam
Even in a struggling year for the NDP, Peter Julian has ensconced his reputation as an effective MP for the area over the past 15 years and should be able to win easily on his own merit alone. In any scenario where that by itself is insufficient, this is a seat where the leadership of Jagmeet Singh is probably of some benefit too, as he is running in the adjacent riding.
19/04/19 Richmondite
No question that this riding is safely in the NDP's pocket. Arguably the 2nd safest seat for the NDP in Metro Vancouver after Vancouver East and along with Vancouver Kingsway.
16/03/19 Sam
The 2013 redistribution really helped the NDP here, and so Peter Julian has this in the bag. He's a great candidate as it is.
16/03/19 Laurence Putnam
I often disagree with Miles Lunn, but he's bang on the money with this one.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
This riding includes all of New Westminster which is a very strong NDP area. Even in the 90s when the NDP was in the teens in BC, they still were competitive here and likewise provincially this area has gone NDP every election since WWII save the 2001 meltdown so unless the NDP gets completely wiped off the map, this should stay in their column even if they suffer major losses elsewhere.

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