Election Prediction Project

St. John's East
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-23 10:42:32

Constituency Profile


O'Regan, Seamus


Jack Harris

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



328.15 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Jack Harris 2114846.90%
Nick Whalen ** 1496233.20%
Joedy Wall 814118.10%
David Peters 8211.80%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Nick Whalen 2097446.70%
Jack Harris ** 2032845.30%
Deanne Stapleton 29386.50%
David Anthony Peters 5001.10%
Sean Burton 1400.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   St. John's East
   (95.89% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   St. John's South-Mount Pearl
   (4.11% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

31/07/20 Fix Error
The Liberal candidate here is Joanne Thompson, not Seamus O'Regan, who is running in Mount Pearl.
30/07/20 Stevo
It is entirely in this government's character to ‘invest’ (i.e. throw away) billions on a doomed projet in order to secure ONE seat. Likely a politically successful strategy.
28/07/20 ME
The deal on Muskrat Falls may put the Liberals in the drivers seat
28/07/20 Dr Bear
Let’s be honest; this riding is a Jack Harris riding, not an NDP riding. And post Jack Layton, even when Harris won, it wasn’t by a tremendous margin. Now with Harris retiring, the Liberals should be able to nab this seat back. I would actually argue that the CPC are more likely to win than a non-Harris NDP candidate.
22/07/20 Thomas K
Perhaps Alison Coffin could run for the NDP? Until then, this is too close to call.
23/06/21 Marco Ricci
Now that Jack Harris has announced he is not running in the next election, this riding probably becomes Too Close To Call. NDP may have an opportunity to keep it if they can find a strong candidate, but the Liberals may now be able to pick it up if they get strong numbers in Newfoundland again.
22/06/21 VanIsler
Jack Harris is retiring. With low NDP numbers in Atlantic Canada, I doubt a new NDP candidate will be able to hold this seat.
17/06/21 ME
Jack Harris is dealing with his age(72) and cancer. He will not stand again and the provincial riding went to the Liberals in the recent election.
12/06/21 J.F. Breton
Harris ne se représente pas, apparemment. Grosse perte pour le NPD. Du coup, la circonscription reviendra assurément libérale.
11/06/21 Chris N
According to the CBC, incumbent Jack Harris has stated that he won't run in the next election.
11/06/21 VanIsler
Probably an NDP hold (although this could change...) It will likely remain the only NDP seat in Atlantic Canada.
I think Jack Harris should keep this for the NDP by a healthy margin.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster