Campbell, Katie
	Ells, Cameron
	Fillmore, Andy
	Hébert, B. Alexander
	Roberts, Jo-Ann
	Roberts, Lisa
Incumbent:
	Andy Fillmore

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			94610 92643 50905 45136 215.64 km² 438.80/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Andy Fillmore **	23681	42.50%
	Christine Saulnier	16747	30.00%
	Jo-Ann Roberts	8013	14.40%
	Bruce Holland	6456	11.60%
	Duncan McGenn	633	1.10%
	Bill Wilson	222	0.40%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Andy Fillmore	27431	51.70%
	Megan Leslie **	19162	36.10%
	Irvine Carvery	4564	8.60%
	Thomas Trappenberg	1745	3.30%
	Allan Bezanson	130	0.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		8292	18.01%
		23761	51.62%
		11805	25.64%
		2022	4.39%
Other		152	0.33%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Halifax    (99.86% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Halifax West    (0.14% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	18/09/21	JH 173.212.113.20
I thought this would flip NDP earlier in the campaign, but I am not seeing it at this point. The LPC vote numbers in recent polling in Atlantic Canada is actually higher than 2019 results, so I really can't see the NDP making up a 12 point deficit given those regional aggregates. Liberal hold.
	15/09/21	Sam 92.40.172.156
Ignore the toplines - an NDP increase in the Maritimes is likely to manifest the most here as they're best positioned to eat up the Green vote following their general decline. No wonder Trudeau was here today - he needs his voters to turn out. But I'm not sure they will given the data that's come in. Both party's candidates are strong standard bearers and I suspect most people who are dissatisfied with Fillmore weren't voting for him anyway. It would be a wise move to keep this at TCTC until the weekend, but my money's on the NDP.
	08/09/21	Traveller 198.103.198.251
With the NDP consistently over 20% in the Atlantic, Halifax is the most likely seat to change.
	03/09/21	JH 173.212.113.20
NDP numbers for the Atlantic region and Liberal numbers down are up almost as much as the Liberal vs NDP difference last election. Fillmore has not been universally liked as an MP - many in the city find him aloof and to have not done a good job representing Haligonian interests. Lisa Roberts is a popular former provincial MLA and a much stronger candidate than the NDP candidate in 2019. All of these add up to a likely NDP flip.
	24/08/21	Ontario Voter 37.25.85.118
This should be the lowest hanging fruit for the NDP if they’re expecting to make gains in Atlantic Canada. If the opinion polling is to be believed then they are gaining support compared to the last election. I think that combined with the selection of Lisa Roberts, an ex provincial MLA from the Halifax region will help push the NDP over the top here. We also saw NDP support rise in a Halifax region in the provincial election and they were able to gain a seat within the boundaries of this riding while coming close in many others.
	22/08/21	Stevo 164.177.56.217
Perhaps somewhat bold to predict this so early, but I sense a shift here. The provincial Liberal meltdown, combined with solid campaigns so far by the federal NDP and CPC, and the seat's NDP history (Alexa McDonough, Megan Leslie), will put the NDP over the top.
	20/08/21	Mr. Dave 71.7.149.143
The provincial Liberals in N.S. just got their butts handed to them on a silver platter by the electorate. The NDP won three of the five provincial ridings within the federal Halifax boundaries, narrowly lost a fourth, and were a strong second in the fifth. With such a high-profile candidate as ex-M.L.A. Lisa Roberts, it is looking very likely that the NDP will take back Halifax.
	19/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Unlike in Dartmouth, the NDP share fell in Halifax--but that's because Megan Leslie's a hard act to follow; and besides, Jo-Ann Roberts was making a ‘profile’ bid for the Greens, and many were preparing for *her* being nominal opposition early on. And in any event, the NDP-Green ‘united left’ outpolled the Libs. So in a post-Jack Harris, post-Green-implosion era, this is presently looking like Atlantic Canada's lowest hanging fruit for the Dippers (and they've nominated w/that in mind)
	19/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
ndp have found Lisa Roberts a provincial ndp mla to be there candidate this year in what had been a long time ndp riding , going to predict ndp here as long as they maintain some momentum nationally and stay at or above 20% in the polls
	26/05/21	99.226.172.248
Former Halifax area MLA is running here for the NDP. I think this one could become competitive.