Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 14:52:32

Constituency Profile


Campbell, Katie

Ells, Cameron

Fillmore, Andy

Hébert, B. Alexander

Roberts, Jo-Ann

Roberts, Lisa


Andy Fillmore

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



215.64 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Andy Fillmore ** 2368142.50%
Christine Saulnier 1674730.00%
Jo-Ann Roberts 801314.40%
Bruce Holland 645611.60%
Duncan McGenn 6331.10%
Bill Wilson 2220.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Andy Fillmore 2743151.70%
Megan Leslie ** 1916236.10%
Irvine Carvery 45648.60%
Thomas Trappenberg 17453.30%
Allan Bezanson 1300.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1520.33%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Halifax West
   (0.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 JH
I thought this would flip NDP earlier in the campaign, but I am not seeing it at this point. The LPC vote numbers in recent polling in Atlantic Canada is actually higher than 2019 results, so I really can't see the NDP making up a 12 point deficit given those regional aggregates. Liberal hold.
15/09/21 Sam
Ignore the toplines - an NDP increase in the Maritimes is likely to manifest the most here as they're best positioned to eat up the Green vote following their general decline. No wonder Trudeau was here today - he needs his voters to turn out. But I'm not sure they will given the data that's come in.
Both party's candidates are strong standard bearers and I suspect most people who are dissatisfied with Fillmore weren't voting for him anyway. It would be a wise move to keep this at TCTC until the weekend, but my money's on the NDP.
08/09/21 Traveller
With the NDP consistently over 20% in the Atlantic, Halifax is the most likely seat to change.
03/09/21 JH
NDP numbers for the Atlantic region and Liberal numbers down are up almost as much as the Liberal vs NDP difference last election. Fillmore has not been universally liked as an MP - many in the city find him aloof and to have not done a good job representing Haligonian interests. Lisa Roberts is a popular former provincial MLA and a much stronger candidate than the NDP candidate in 2019. All of these add up to a likely NDP flip.
24/08/21 Ontario Voter
This should be the lowest hanging fruit for the NDP if they’re expecting to make gains in Atlantic Canada. If the opinion polling is to be believed then they are gaining support compared to the last election. I think that combined with the selection of Lisa Roberts, an ex provincial MLA from the Halifax region will help push the NDP over the top here. We also saw NDP support rise in a Halifax region in the provincial election and they were able to gain a seat within the boundaries of this riding while coming close in many others.
22/08/21 Stevo
Perhaps somewhat bold to predict this so early, but I sense a shift here. The provincial Liberal meltdown, combined with solid campaigns so far by the federal NDP and CPC, and the seat's NDP history (Alexa McDonough, Megan Leslie), will put the NDP over the top.
20/08/21 Mr. Dave
The provincial Liberals in N.S. just got their butts handed to them on a silver platter by the electorate. The NDP won three of the five provincial ridings within the federal Halifax boundaries, narrowly lost a fourth, and were a strong second in the fifth. With such a high-profile candidate as ex-M.L.A. Lisa Roberts, it is looking very likely that the NDP will take back Halifax.
19/08/21 A.S.
Unlike in Dartmouth, the NDP share fell in Halifax--but that's because Megan Leslie's a hard act to follow; and besides, Jo-Ann Roberts was making a ‘profile’ bid for the Greens, and many were preparing for *her* being nominal opposition early on. And in any event, the NDP-Green ‘united left’ outpolled the Libs. So in a post-Jack Harris, post-Green-implosion era, this is presently looking like Atlantic Canada's lowest hanging fruit for the Dippers (and they've nominated w/that in mind)
19/08/21 R.O.
ndp have found Lisa Roberts a provincial ndp mla to be there candidate this year in what had been a long time ndp riding , going to predict ndp here as long as they maintain some momentum nationally and stay at or above 20% in the polls
Former Halifax area MLA is running here for the NDP. I think this one could become competitive.

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