|On the mainstreet poll that shows liberals ahead it should be noted its not a true riding specific poll they are polling people in specific ridings but question asked is for party leaders not local candidates. so they asked trudeau vs otoole not Jamie Battiste vs Eddie Orrell . which would easily explain why the cpc lower as Eddie Orrell is very well known in the riding but Otoole less so although he did visit the riding earlier this election . the last narrative research poll for nova scotia from sep 2 was 36 cpc , 33 lib , 28 ndp- province wide , there an east coast based pollster and poll this region frequently. |
|Mainstreet Poll of Sept 1st-7th has a healthy Liberal lead|
|Eddie Orrell is a popular candidate and will likely unseat Batiste.|
|Why are Liberals supporting this MP who has said some nasty anti-women, anti-LGBTQ, anti-indigenous comments (and he is an indigenous person)? He said 'men's tennis is like gay porn'. And ‘why do i think every skinny aboriginal girl is on crystal meth or pills’ (his words, not mine). Yet our ‘feminist’ prime minister endorses him? If you are inclined to vote Liberal, please explain why the LPC tolerates this guy.|
|The split of the NDP-Liberal vote will help the Conservatives here and so will having a higher profile candidate like Eddie Orrell. I anticipate this riding likely going Conservative unless something changes in the next two week.|
|This riding is a rematch of 2019 with rookie mp Jaime Battiste running for re election against 2019 conservative candidate and former nova scotia pc mla Eddie Orrell. True this is a long time liberal riding in Cape Breton which has a long liberal tradition but the region isn’t solidly liberal provincially the pc’s and ndp often win seats there and did in recent election. The conservatives also came very close here in 2011 when Cecil Clarke was there candidate so perhaps the riding has more of a tory base than people realise.|
|I think after Miramichi-Grand Lake, Sydney-Victoria has to be #2 on the Conservative target list in Atlantic Canada. The writing is on the wall here, I believe.|
||No Where Man|
|Archie MacKinnon is not running as an independent. This is good news for Eddie Orrell. MacKinnon acted as a spoiler in the last election with a strong performance in the part of the riding where Orrell should have been strongest. |
The NDP have nominated Jeff Ward who is the general manager of the Membertou Heritage Park. This means that Sydney-Victoria now has two Indigenous candidates. Jaime Battiste who is the other Indigenous candidate did extremely well on the Eskasoni and Membertou Reserves last time. Having a second Indigenous candidate will likely lower his vote totals in those key areas.
On the other hand, Jaime Battiste is the incumbent instead of an unknown like last time and the Liberals still enjoy strong support in Atlantic Canada.
This riding is still too close in my opinion.
|What happened? Politics is local--and partisanship isn't a simple matter. And in fact, we're talking about two consecutive whiplashes: what preceded '15 was Mark Eyking winning by only *2* points in '11 over yet another popular Conservative MLA (and future Cape Breton mayor), Cecil Clarke. (Indeed, Cape Breton's provincial Tory streak--epitomized most especially by former Premier Rodney MacDonald--really has a way of tilting against the partisan-Liberal pigeonhole.) It's true that Archie MacKinnon likely denied Orrell a seat; it's not clear whether his absence will hand Orrell said seat--indeed, the dynamic could go even go 3 ways now (yeah, I know, cue the ‘Jagmeet wokeness won't play in Sydney and New Waterford’ comments)|
|What on earth happened? The Liberal margin over 2nd place collapsed from 60 (!!) points to 3! That's worse than Jack Harris's margin in St. John's going from +50 in 2011 to -1 in 2015. In Cape Breton, of all places; one of the most partisan Liberal regions in the country. I doubt it will repeat but the CPC and NDP would be wise to start trickling in resources in case there is a paradigm shift here.|
||No Where Man|
|Eddie Orrell finished a close second last time and is running again. He probably would have won had it not been for Archie MacKinnon pulling lots of votes in the North Sydney/Sydney Mines part of the riding. This should have been Orrell's best area because it was part of his provincial riding when he was an MLA.|
If Mackinnon runs again as an independent than the Liberal will win easily. If he doesn't run than Orrell has a good chance of winning this for the Conservatives as long as the Conseratives are competitive nationally.