Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-16 01:15:50

Constituency Profile


Lochhead, Sarah

Saari, Tanya

Shipley, Doug

Webb, Chris


Doug Shipley

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



966.10 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Doug Shipley 2098139.00%
Brian Kalliecharan 1680531.20%
Dan Janssen 797214.80%
Marty Lancaster 706613.10%
David Patterson 9691.80%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Alex Nuttall 2109141.70%
Brian Tamblyn 2100541.60%
Ellen White 520210.30%
Marty Lancaster 26485.20%
Darren Roskam 4010.80%
Ram Faerber 1880.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 10822.41%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (68.66% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (18.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Simcoe North
   (12.72% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Doug Downey 2044544.75%
Dan Janssen 1289128.21%
Jeff Kerk 621013.59%
Keenan Aylwin 535411.72%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 1880.49%

Last election the CPC did poorly in Ontario, while doing much better in rest of Canada. Ford and dont like Scheer played a big factor. That has changed in 2 years.
The CPC 39% in 2019 is the floor. Expect that to increase, even if so slighlty, too many from Barrie car cummute to GTA, and won’t ve happy with pump prices.
03/09/21 The Jackal
With the current polling numbersI think I can safety put this in the Conservative column with a slightly bigger margin than last time
02/09/21 KXS
If the election was held tomorrow, I'd say the Conservatives will hold on to this riding.
The e-day result would depend whether the Liberal campaign can garner some momentum in the final two weeks of the campaign. The lack of a Green candidate here is an added benefit to them.
02/09/21 Predictions
A month ago, I would have said the Green collapse + strong LPC numbers makes this, if not leaning Liberal, at least a toss-up. But now that Ontario is a dead heat (Libs only 1pt above CPC), this one is probably out of reach. CPC win, with a lot of those former Green voters going NDP.
31/08/21 R.O.
Doug Shipley is only a first term mp so not exactly high profile in Ottawa although his presence seems to be greater in the riding itself. He had been a city councillor before getting elected as mp. the riding was really close in 2015 but less close last election. Oddly there won’t be any green candidates in Barrie as former candidate Marty Lancaster was unable to meet the deadlines to run. Liberals and ndp have new candidates Tanya Saari and Sarah Lochhead.
04/08/21 A.S.
While BSOM became an unlikely Green stronghold provincially in '18 and federally in '19, let's not forget that the NDP also gained some federal ground through running their previous provincial candidate--that is, the Libs took it from both ends. While Shipley now benefits from incumbent advantage, weak national polling isn't a good look for *any* Conservative who won w/less than 40% of the vote--particularly if the crisis in the Green camp leads a lot of *those* voters to migrate Lib-ward. (Or NDP-ward. Who knows, we might see a third-of-the-vote-or-less victory here this time. Yes, in Barrie.)
29/05/21 KXS
The Conservatives only won 39% of the vote in this riding in the last election.
A weak Liberal candidate and a strong Green performance resulted in the CPC holding on to this riding.
Should the Liberals field a stronger candidate, I think they could make up the 4000 vote gap from the last campaign.
Similar to other ridings north and west of the GTA - new developments are resulting in rapidly changing demographics.

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