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Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-07-04 19:06:28
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Shipley, Doug


Incumbent:

Doug Shipley

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

100788
97876

41490
39270

966.10 km²
104.30/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Doug Shipley 2098139.00%
Brian Kalliecharan 1680531.20%
Dan Janssen 797214.80%
Marty Lancaster 706613.10%
David Patterson 9691.80%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Alex Nuttall 2109141.70%
Brian Tamblyn 2100541.60%
Ellen White 520210.30%
Marty Lancaster 26485.20%
Darren Roskam 4010.80%
Ram Faerber 1880.40%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2447754.55%
898320.02%
760116.94%
27346.09%
Other 10822.41%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Barrie
   (68.66% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Simcoe-Grey
   (18.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Simcoe North
   (12.72% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Doug Downey 2044544.75%
Dan Janssen 1289128.21%
Jeff Kerk 621013.59%
Keenan Aylwin 535411.72%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1509339.26%
1480338.51%
575514.97%
26016.77%
Other 1880.49%


29/05/21 KXS
99.247.196.32
The Conservatives only won 39% of the vote in this riding in the last election.
A weak Liberal candidate and a strong Green performance resulted in the CPC holding on to this riding.
Should the Liberals field a stronger candidate, I think they could make up the 4000 vote gap from the last campaign.
Similar to other ridings north and west of the GTA - new developments are resulting in rapidly changing demographics.



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