|Last election the CPC did poorly in Ontario, while doing much better in rest of Canada. Ford and dont like Scheer played a big factor. That has changed in 2 years.|
The CPC 39% in 2019 is the floor. Expect that to increase, even if so slighlty, too many from Barrie car cummute to GTA, and won’t ve happy with pump prices.
|With the current polling numbersI think I can safety put this in the Conservative column with a slightly bigger margin than last time|
|If the election was held tomorrow, I'd say the Conservatives will hold on to this riding. |
The e-day result would depend whether the Liberal campaign can garner some momentum in the final two weeks of the campaign. The lack of a Green candidate here is an added benefit to them.
|A month ago, I would have said the Green collapse + strong LPC numbers makes this, if not leaning Liberal, at least a toss-up. But now that Ontario is a dead heat (Libs only 1pt above CPC), this one is probably out of reach. CPC win, with a lot of those former Green voters going NDP.|
|Doug Shipley is only a first term mp so not exactly high profile in Ottawa although his presence seems to be greater in the riding itself. He had been a city councillor before getting elected as mp. the riding was really close in 2015 but less close last election. Oddly there won’t be any green candidates in Barrie as former candidate Marty Lancaster was unable to meet the deadlines to run. Liberals and ndp have new candidates Tanya Saari and Sarah Lochhead.|
|While BSOM became an unlikely Green stronghold provincially in '18 and federally in '19, let's not forget that the NDP also gained some federal ground through running their previous provincial candidate--that is, the Libs took it from both ends. While Shipley now benefits from incumbent advantage, weak national polling isn't a good look for *any* Conservative who won w/less than 40% of the vote--particularly if the crisis in the Green camp leads a lot of *those* voters to migrate Lib-ward. (Or NDP-ward. Who knows, we might see a third-of-the-vote-or-less victory here this time. Yes, in Barrie.)|
|The Conservatives only won 39% of the vote in this riding in the last election. |
A weak Liberal candidate and a strong Green performance resulted in the CPC holding on to this riding.
Should the Liberals field a stronger candidate, I think they could make up the 4000 vote gap from the last campaign.
Similar to other ridings north and west of the GTA - new developments are resulting in rapidly changing demographics.