Election Prediction Project

Kitchener Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-22 10:56:52

Constituency Profile


Henein Thorn, Mary

Saini, Raj

Zubi, Beisan


Raj Saini

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



41.47 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Raj Saini ** 2031636.70%
Mike Morrice 1439426.00%
Stephen Woodworth 1319123.80%
Andrew Moraga 623811.30%
Patrick Bernier 10331.90%
Ellen Papenburg 2020.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Raj Saini 2550448.80%
Stephen Woodworth ** 1587230.40%
Susan Cadell 868016.60%
Nicholas Wendler 15973.10%
Slavko Miladinovic 5151.00%
Julian Ichim 1120.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3950.84%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Kitchener Centre
   (84.9% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (15.1% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Laura Mae Lindo 2051243.38%
Mary Henein Thorn 1308027.66%
Daiene Vernile * 949920.09%
Stacey Danckert 32346.84%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5101.28%

20/06/21 Chris N
I expect the Greens to do well here, but I think they have a lower ceiling than Guelph, where Mike Schreiner won their first provincial seat in 2018. Firstly, I think Kitchener Centre isn’t as ‘crunchy’ as Guelph. Also, Schreiner took many votes from disenchanted Liberals following their provincial collapse, and I don’t think the Greens can count on that in the next federal general. Lastly, the past month has been a PR disaster for Annamie Paul and the Greens, with an MP crossing the floor and front page headlines about inner party squabbles. Anything can happen until the next general, but I think Kitchener Center is leaning Liberal.
22/05/21 Kyle H
This should be a fun riding to watch. The Greens are rerunning their star candidate, Mike Morrice, nominating him early and hitting the ground running with a strong campaign. That doesn't mean its pointing to a flip, I'd say on the face of it this is a Liberal riding - but if Morrice can claim some momentum and coalesce opposition support... definitely TCTC for now.

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