Aitchison, Scott
	Fawcett, James
	Hay, Heather
	Mantha, Marc
	Nicoyishakiye, Jovanie
	Predie Jr, Daniel
	Tole, James
Incumbent:
	Scott Aitchison

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			94398 91233 77291 40501 12542.62 km² 7.50/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Scott Aitchison	22845	41.80%
	Trisha Cowie	16615	30.40%
	Gord Miller	8409	15.40%
	Tom Young	6417	11.70%
	Daniel Predie Jr	377	0.70%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Tony Clement **	22206	43.30%
	Trisha Cowie	19937	38.90%
	Matt McCarthy	5183	10.10%
	Glen Hodgson	3704	7.20%
	Duncan Bell	121	0.20%
	Gordie Merton	88	0.20%
	Albert Gray Smith	40	0.10%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		25864	55.73%
		11217	24.17%
		5330	11.48%
		3776	8.14%
Other		222	0.48%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Parry Sound-Muskoka    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Norm Miller *	22662	48.07%
	Erin Horvath	10385	22.03%
	Matt Richter	9438	20.02%
	Brenda Rhodes	4071	8.64%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		10158	26.25%
		15761	40.73%
		4999	12.92%
		7484	19.34%
Other		296	0.76%

	31/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Scott Aitchison was first elected in 2019 although he had been mayor of Huntsville previously so well known in the riding. In what has been a traditionally conservative riding. Trish Cowie is not back as the liberal candidate replaced by an unknown one Jovanie Nicoyishkiye who doesn’t appear to have any connection to the riding and from Toronto. Gord Miller also not back as green candidate replaced by Marc Mantha.
	09/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Re the Libs doing well here in the past: it was really more of an ‘Andy Mitchell’ riding than a Liberal riding during the Chretien/Martin years. And in a not-uncommon pattern, Trisha Cowie made it close in Tony Clement's final race, but it wasn't so close for her vs a new candidate in '19. Though as it now stands, PSM might as well be a federal-and-provincial Conservative version of Guelph, in the prevailing-against-fragmented-opposition sense--right down to the prominent Green element ('19 canidate Gord Miller, who had run in Guelph in '15, turned in the 3rd best Ontario result).
	12/07/21	seasaw 99.225.229.135
This riding will probably go Conservative, but it's not safe Conservative. The Liberals have done very well in this riding in the past, but barring an epic CPC collapse, which is possible, the riding should stay in the blue column even if the Liberals win a majority