Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Carleton
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-22 10:57:20
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Poilievre, Pierre


Incumbent:

Pierre Poilievre

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

102918
89522

36478
35684

1177.85 km²
87.40/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Pierre Poilievre ** 3214746.30%
Chris Rodgers 2651838.20%
Kevin Hua 64799.30%
Gordon Kubanek 34234.90%
Alain Musende 7921.10%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pierre Poilievre 2776246.90%
Chris Rodgers 2591343.70%
Kc Larocque 36326.10%
Deborah Coyne 19323.30%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2892961.67%
626213.35%
978620.86%
19314.12%
Other 00.00%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Nepean-Carleton
   (59.16% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Carleton-Mississippi Mills
   (40.81% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Ottawa South
   (0.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Goldie Ghamari 2579851.33%
Courtney Potter 1130822.5%
Theresa Qadri 976819.44%
Gordon Kubanek 19853.95%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1105727.96%
2099053.09%
487012.32%
23155.85%
Other 3080.78%


28/07/20 Stevo
164.177.56.217
Pierre Poilièvre is wildly popular with the grassroots of his party and very effective in Opposition. The Liberals would love to take him down, and even briefly flirted (based on online rumours) with the idea of running Mark Carney here. This being the Ottawa valley, the Liberals will always have some strength, but it would take a
20/05/21 Craig
130.18.104.120
The last frontier in Ottawa for the Conservatives continues to grow and urbanize, although somewhat surprisingly the margin over 2015 improved for Poilievre. His high profile is a positive, however, he has been sidelined by O'Toole which may be a negative and he is seen as an "attack dog" which isn't exactly beneficial here.
I do think the Liberals cannot be entirely ruled out, especially if they improve on 2019. The demographics here - generally highly educated and affluent - are in their favour, however there are still rural areas that remain strongly Conservative. It will be a tough race here.



Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster