Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Griesbach
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:48:09

Constituency Profile


Desjarlais, Blake B.

Diotte, Kerry


Kerry Diotte

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



45.97 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Kerry Diotte ** 2412051.40%
Mark Cherrington 1180025.10%
Habiba Mohamud 810017.20%
Safi Khan 11892.50%
Barbara Ellen Nichols 10742.30%
Andrzej Gudanowski 2160.50%
Christine Alva Armas 2030.40%
Alex Boykowich 1700.40%
Mary Joyce 910.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kerry Diotte 1915740.00%
Janis Irwin 1630934.00%
Brian Gold 1039721.70%
Heather Workman 11292.40%
Maryna Goncharenko 4150.90%
Linda Northcott 2790.60%
Bun Bun Thompson 1440.30%
Mary Joyce 1120.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Edmonton East
   (78.74% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton-St. Albert
   (21.26% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

06/07/20 Steve Smith
Kerry Diotte more than doubled up the second place New Democrat here in 2019. Still, Conservative fortunes in Alberta are flagging enough that a reasonably consolidated left-of-CPC vote could probably take it. In every election since 2008, the New Democrats have nominated a comparative heavyweight, while the Liberals have nominated a comparative non-entity. If that happens again, there is a realistic chance of an NDP pickup; if both the Liberals and NDP make a serious play for the seat, Diotte should be safe.
23/06/21 Stevo
Notley's big win in 2015 didn't carry over to favourable federal results later that year, so it is clear that one cannot extrapolate results from one level government to another. But it's hard to imagine that the sudden tanking popularity of Jason Kenney's UCP (Notley's NDP is well ahead in the polls) won't have any impact. An NDP win here may well depend on strategic voting by Liberals.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
With the CPC polling lower and backlash against the UCP at the provincial level, this one could become a tossup.

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