|My final prediction here: The Liberals have failed to prioritize the issues that matter in this riding. The NDP will have a very strong performance, and the Conservatives will win.|
|The numbers in BC have been bouncing around so much lately that it has been very hard to make arguments based on the current data and sound internally consistent, but I'll try to restate those numbers are see where we are in current aggregates (338):|
NDP: 30% (+5.7)
LPC: 26% (-0.7)
CPC: 31% (-2.7)
So, in other words, NDP up a lot, Conservatives down a bit, Liberals essentially stable. The ~6 point swing to the NDP then brings them within 5 points here, and there being no green makes this essentially a 3-way dead heat, with the Conservatives *maybe* a little behind, although certainly close enough to be considered. It sounds like the Liberals aren't doing as well as 2019 on the ground this year, although this probably just nullifies any remaining edge the Liberals have over the NDP and Cons rather than being decisive. This will probably be pretty average for PPC support, so I won't add any PPC modifiers like I did in Kootenay-Columbia. It's a fairly left-wing riding, with Port Coquitlam being one of the NDP's safest ridings provincially (64%!). Even the much more right-wing Burke Mountain area was an NDP blowout in 2020, part of a series of remarkable NDP overperformances on the north bank of the Fraser. I'm not sure how well that'll translate to federal politics, but there will definitely be coattails to ride any time you get *that* crushing of a victory in a riding. I think the NDP is favored next door in PM-MR where the more vulnerable conservatives are the ones to beat and where the provincial NDP victories were 63% and 55% in the component ridings, but here I'm honestly kind of stumped. This is as close of a too close to call riding as one can get.
A week ago I would have said TCTC, but since it's 3 days to E-day I'll make a dumb guess. It seems like McKinnon thrives on barely winning, and since barely winning appears to be the only option here, I think he's the default choice. That said, this is more a joke than a prediction, so please consider my analysis here rather than my conclusion. The NDP vote seems to be recovering after a post-debate slip, so this could easily change between now and e-day.
|This is my home riding. To start with an overview. The lawn signage in public places are all lower compared to 2019. In private lawns, NDP and CON signages are similar to 2019. What I noticed is that in the North Poco area, especially North of Prairie, there are less LIB signs compared to 2019. In 2019, there was a lot.|
One of the reason the LIB won in 2015, is that Moore, the previous CON MP retired. And that you see provincially where the NDP vote was strongest, that would be the Poco area, it was also where the LIB vote did well federally in 15 and 19. Ultimately this is an attrition election. The LIB vote hit the ceiling in 19. With the NDP up and running a local Poco counsellor, they will take some the LIB-NDP marginal voters. So my guess is that the LIB will be down at least 1 to 2 thousand votes. The question is how the CON vote will hold. I think 15 and 19 total are the base CON vote. Would some switch to PPC, sure, but minimal. In the end, anyone-other-than-Trudeau will keep most of them in the same column. There is a possibility that both LIB and CON vote totals will go down. But looking a numbers, the LIB vote will go slightly more than CON, for CON to come up with a close win.
|Curious riding — from fairly solid NDP side of PoCo to the mostly Con Westwood Plateau, this does not look like a Liberal riding. The newer portion, Burke Mountain & it’s young, ethnically diverse neighborhoods have helped explain how mild-mannered but well-liked guy McKinnon has two wins under his belt, after two earlier tough losses. Rising Conservative numbers and dissatisfaction with Trudeau, along with the credentials of NDP and PoCo councillor Dupont, mean it very well could switch. However the Con candidate’s low profile and dubious local ties could help McKinnon eke out one more win. But it’ll be another nail biter if he does.|
|The liberals are holding relative to 2019, while the CPC is down 4 points relative to 2019. That tells me this seat is a Liberal hold.|
|Ron McKinnon is generally inoffensive, and had a bit of a difficult job as chair of the health committee. |
However, with a party as anti-working class as the Liberals, I don't see them hanging on here this time around, mostly because the NDP will attract many former Liberal voters.
|Ron McKinnon has been a low profile MP - although a nice person, he is not well known and has not delivered much for this area. He barely won last time and the Liberals are down from their previous result. The NDP should improve on their disastrous previous result but they won’t be within winning distance. Everything here points to a CPC win.|
|Ron Mckinnon has been mp of this riding since 2015 and re elected by a slim margin in 2019. Before that it had been a conservative riding for some time when James Moore mp. the conservatives have a new candidate this year Katerina Anastasidas and ndp are running Laura Dupont. One of those ridings that will likely come down to the final days|
|Ron McKinnon: BC's Liberal king of ‘phew!’. If he makes it in again, it'll almost certainly be a ‘phew!’ hat trick given the eclectic composition of the riding. Or if he has his widest margin yet, it'll be due to CPC/NDP ‘convergence’ (the latter Jagmeet-boosted, the former absent a Douglas Horne-style MLA or western-Scheer-wave factor).|
|The CPC won BC by 7.8% and the national popular vote in 2019 and McKinnon held on. Most polls put the LPC ahead in BC. Unless there is a consensus that BC is going CPC by high single digits, McKinnon is probably safe.|
|The Conservative candidate probably would have won last time if it weren't for the PPC. Expect both the LPC and CPC to spend heavily here--I think it's too early to predict a result based on the CPC's current polling numbers.|
|Liberals should improve over their last result, winning by a bigger margin.|