Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 14:33:05

Constituency Profile


Allan, Wayne

Caputo, Frank

Currie, Iain

Delwo, Corally

McCormick, Jesse

O'Brien, Bob

Sundhu, Bill


Cathy McLeod

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



37757.55 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Cathy McLeod ** 3241544.70%
Terry Lake 1971627.20%
Cynthia Egli 993613.70%
Iain Currie 878912.10%
Ken Finlayson 11321.60%
Kira Cheeseborough 3210.40%
Peter Kerek 1440.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Cathy McLeod ** 2459535.30%
Bill Sundhu 2146630.80%
Steve Powrie 2121530.40%
Matthew Greenwood 24893.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1850.33%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 Nick M.
Kamloops is strong safe Anti-Trudeau Territory.
Unless the PPC is surging here, see so no reason that the CPC isn't still the party of the grievance in Kamloops.
19/09/21 BThompson
Living in the riding, I can see a lot more support for the NDP candidate than any other candidate. He seems to be the only one active in the community. Though the conservatives have held on long here, I truly believe in an NDP breakthrough here. All over every newspaper you can see NDP ads. Same goes for lawn signs on private properties. I can count on my hands how many conservative signs I’ve seen.
It will be a nail biter though, but my call is Bill Sundhu will be the next MP for KTC
18/09/21 Traveller
The NDP won’t win this one - too much ground to make up and even the provincial NDP couldn’t win in the area with a strong lead across BC.
18/09/21 Jake H.
I mostly agree with Physaster's assessment here, again.
The NDP are once again heaping a lot of time and resources, including Jagmeet appearances, into this riding. At first this made me thing ‘maybe they know something we don't’, but they also had high hopes in this constituency in previous elections that have not been realized.
Cathy McLeod is gone but wasn't exactly a ‘star candidate’ for the Conservatives. Plus no other party has a returning candidate other than the Greens' Currie, and his support will drop fro 2019's, with Green polling down overall and not so much of an NDP cluster-mess this time around. This adds up to a ‘push’ at worst and a slight Con edge at best.
There are no big inroads for the PPC here. I don't see any huge Lib>NDP swing that will make a difference.
I just don't see any way this riding goes NDP or anything other than Conservative this time around. Safe blue hold.
18/09/21 MC
Another thing is that Bill has huge name recognition in this city. People know him, where he grew up and that will translate into huge votes. KTW has published a poll showing Bill in the lead. The NDP will be able to capture a large progressive vote here, and should send him over the top.
18/09/21 MC
Given the amount of money the NDP is pouring into the riding, and the only federal leader to stop here, I think that Bill Sundhu has the edge here. Add that to a weak Liberal candidate and a decimated Green Party, I would call this an upset for the Conservative candidate.
17/09/21 Kyle H
I'm sorry but I have to step in - are we really taking at face value the idea of leader visits and signs as proof the riding is ready to flip? And backing that up as a point is... there's no longer a woman MP incumbent for the Cons so a lot of voters are going to shift NDP now? *Really?*
Come on. Kamloops is not going NDP this cycle, it might not go anything but Conservative for many cycles after. It stayed Con in 2015. None of the provincial ridings covering K-T-C flipped during the provincial election, despite helpful vote splitting and a collapsing Interior vote for the Greens. This should not be TCTC, I don't care what Dr. Bear says, sorry.
17/09/21 Raven
In the worst cast vote scenario for the CON, their vote total is still aroun the best cast scenario for the NDP vote total in the last 6 elections. On the other hand, you can clearly tell there are ALOT of CON-NDP swing voters between the vote totals of the last six election. In the end this is a resource riding, the NDP federally - more environmental urban SJW type, does not translate to more support than their provincial cousins here than the CON vote. CON even with a new candidate will win here.
16/09/21 DP
While it is true that the NDP is focusing on this riding, they have focused on this riding in the 2004-2015 elections, and still came up short. There seems to be an attitude that this was an NDP riding from 1980-2000 so it should be again. But for the latter part of those years, it was more a Nelson Riis riding than an NDP riding. If anything, Terry Lake's candidacy last time held back some of the Blue Grit votes from the CPC. Not TCTC, this will stay in the CPC column.
16/09/21 J. Murphy
I stumbled into one additional, incidental piece of information while reading Kamloops This Week today. KTW has an informal, non-scientific poll of readers on its website.
While it is non-scientific, KTW is a widely-read local paper with a focus on local events and news with no apparent bias in the editorial direction nor in the readership. I would not be surprised if the final result comes out incredibly close to this non-scientific poll.
The current standings are as follows:
- Bil Sundhu, NDP: 255 (37%)
- Frank Caputo, Conservative: 235 (34%)
- Jesse McCormick, Liberal: 101 (14%)
- Iain Currie, Green: 58 (8%)
- Corally Delwo, People's Party: 42 (6%)
- Bob O'Brien, Independent: 5 (1%)
- Wayne Allan, Independent : 1 (0%)
- Total Votes: 697
- This is not a scientific poll
Source: Kamloops This Week (kamloopsthisweek.com) on September 16, 2021 at 1:30 PM.
Screenshot: i.imgur.com/PHittYZ.png
16/09/21 Physastr Master
This is interesting, I'd written this riding off and ignored it this election due to how off my prediction of Terry Lake's effect was last election. The NDP does have history here, so the suggestion isn't crazy, but there's a lot of ground to make up. It is probably the case that the NDP's nomination debacles were responsible for the strong green result last election, so let's knock the greens down to 2015 levels - 3%, and give the rest to the NDP -> NDP 22%. That's better, and in line with a lot of interior BC ridings. I don't see Kamloops as uniquely bad for PPC support, but it will definitely see some support bleeding from the Conservatives, so let's take an average of about 6% -> CPC 38%.
The complicating factor is Terry Lake. As pre-2015 numbers showed, as well as the results in some other interior ridings in 2019, the Liberal floor here is very low. A strong candidate can get them votes, but without one I think they could finish fourth behind the PPC or even fifth behind the greens in a bad year, but for now let's say they get 10%, leaving 17% free. The NDP would need almost all of that to win, and aside from the PPC losses there isn't a huge CPC->NDP swing going on, so I think the NDP need at least 35% to win, if not 40%, as I can't see the conservatives dropping below that. Terry Lake is a right-wing guy as it is, so seeing every lost vote go NDP seems like a stretch. I do think this could be close, but I'm just not seeing the motivation for voters to turn around and go NDP in such a monumental way. Kamloops has been trending against the NDP for a while provincially too, and wholly avoided the BC orange crush last year. That said, the BC interior is weird, and I don't bar a loss in the absence of an incumbent, but I just don't see it happening this time around. But please Kamloops, prove me wrong!
15/09/21 Dr Bear
I am in Kamloops at the moment and I can concur, in part, with what J Murphy has reported. The NDP are clearly focused on this seat and so are the PPC. This spells bad news for the CPC. I think it will be close and would not be surprised if it flipped.
14/09/21 J. Murphy
The NDP in Kamloops have clearly been *POURING* money into this riding, expecting a chance of a flip. Everyone in my neighbourhood has received multiple flyers in the mail from the NDP, including one just today (to compare: 1 CPC flyer and 0 LPC, PPC, or GPC flyers). Additionally, while online I've seen digital ads for Bill Sundhu at least 3 times and no local ads for any of the other parties.
There is potential for a couple of other factors helping Bill Sundhu:
1. The Conservatives are no longer benefitting from the incumbancy effect, as Cathy McLeod has retired.
2. Contrary to Cathy McLeod's stated hopes, she was replaced by a man. This may cause some female voters to reconsider their support.
3. This summer here has been the smokiest ever on record (over 556 hours of smoky air), set all-time record high temperatures, and several affluent Kamloops neighbourhoods were either evacuated or placed on evacuation alert due to wildfire threats. Given the CPC's past reluctance to acknowledge climate change, they will likely see reduced support.
4. There is a vocal anti-mask/anti-vax group who will likely be supporting the PPC candidate, Corally Delwo, a former multi-level marketing agent selling skincare products, which could also siphon a couple points from the Frank Caputo's (CPC) support.
5. Per word-of-mouth interactions, the Liberal Party and Justin Trudeau are not popular locally and there are very few red Liberal signs to be seen.
6. The Liberals lost their original candidate and he was replaced, last-minute, by a parachute candidate. (The NDP was in a similar situation in 2019, and went from 31% to 13% of the votem which helped to boost the GPC, LPC, & CPC candidates.)
7. In 2019, the Liberals had a star candidate: former Kamloops Mayor and BC Minister of Environment, Terry Lake. Despite being a conservative-leaning star candidate, he performed worse than in 2015.
8. The Greens, nationally, are short on cash. Given recent party infighting and an unpopular leader, the 12% of KTC votes will likely be reduced. Iain Currie's campaign is phoning it in compared to 2019: his personal campaign website still refers to Elizabeth May as the GPC leader.
9. Bill Sundhu has name recognition from his 2015 run and has continued to build a resume of a star candidate.
10. Jagmeet Singh was the first federal party leader to come to Kamloops following the announcment of the roughly 200 graves at site of the former Kamloops Residential School.
The sign game appears go be dominated by Bill Sundhu (NDP), Frank Caputo (CPC), and Iain Currie (GPC), with almost no showing from Jesse McCormick (LPC).
Lastly, I cannot find where I read it, but I believe that Iain Curry and the Greens are not doing any door-to-door canvasing this year due to COVID. That was a big part of their 2019 surge.
That's how and why I think that an NDP win is feasible. Given the current trends, it's possible that we could end up with numbers like this:
- 38% NDP
- 37% CPC
- 15% LPC
- 6% GPC
- 3% PPC
- 1% IND
09/09/21 R.O.
This riding has no incumbent as Cathy Mcleod has retired she had been first elected in 2008 but riding has been conservative/alliance since 2000. Conservatives have a new candidate Frank Caputo and Bill Sundhu has returned for the ndp. No major party leaders have visited the riding this election. Likely to stay cpc
02/09/21 SG
Again, the most iteresting race in this riding is for second place. The Liberals had a second place finish in 2019, far head of the NDP - very unusual here. Expect the NDP to vault ahead, but not enough to win.
01/09/21 Andy
Tough call in this riding, but I believe the Torys will edge out another victory. 2015 was a huge anomaly. While I do believe it will return to it's natural vote share (CON then NDP, LIB, etc), I think this one is in the bag for the Torys.
01/09/21 Walnut
The one guarantee we have here is that a Kamloops lawyer will win. As Kamloops has been drifting further and further to the right over the last two decades, the Conservative lawyer has the advantage. The Liberals flopped here in 2019 despite a star candidate and a pro-pipeline stance, so it is tough to see how the Liberal lawyer, Green lawyer or NDP lawyer can pull anything off this time.
25/08/21 A.S.
A just-in-case non-prediction. Look; even in '19, while *pretty* solid, this wasn't ‘hard Conservative’ on anything like an AltaSask level--in fact, other than the borderline case of Mission et al, this had the lowest winning share of all Con seats in the BC Interior (and that's including a pickup apiece from the Libs and the NDP--the inverse of '15 when it had a lower winning share than the *losing* share in those 2 seats). If it were all about a CPC vs Trudeauphobia binary, I'd understand; but '19 was a rather unique opposition situation, w/the Libs offering former Kamloops mayor/BCLib MLA Terry Lake as a wouldbe big-tent ‘star candidate’, while the NDP was decimated by *2* farcical candidate dismissals along the way. Now it's the Libs wearing the also-ran shoes as the NDP reoffers their tried-and-true '15 candidate; and TikTok or no, Jagmeetphobia isn't anywhere near as deep as Justinphobia. Of course, the more generic resource-town blue-collar rightward swing remains a problem; which is why the Horgan honeymoon still hasn't been enough to sway the provincial Kamloops seats in a BCNDP direction (in earlier, less ‘sorted’ eras, they would have been a gimme). Then again, who knows what the residential-school political fallout will presently be in Kamloops...
17/08/21 Nick M.
Everyone talks about how Alberta and Saskatchewan went hard Conservative in 2019. What is forgotten about the conversation is that BC Interior vote swings hard conservative as well. Where places like Kamloops should have been close, was a landslide in 2019.
Liberal won’t win this as long as Trudeau is LPC leader.
16/08/21 Dr Bear
I know this riding has been conservative for a long time now, however look at the 2015 results; this happened with the CPC getting 30% of the vote in BC to the NDP’s 26%. Current polling in BC seeing the CPC and NDP neck and neck with about 27% each. Couple that with the lack of an incumbent and the 2015 NDP candidate offering again in 2021, and I think this could be interesting.
Yes I know different party leaders, with Mulcair (who actually had a reasonable plan should become PM) being a better fit here than TikTok dancing Singh. And I know that O’Toole will probably do better as voters start paying attention to him. Nevertheless, I am keeping a watch on this seat.
09/07/21 Lolitha
Conservative incumbent retiring. While this riding has potential to become more competitive, I think the conservatives are the party most likely to win at this point...the 2019 result would be a large margin for the Liberals to overcome, short of a huge wave election.

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