Buddle, Peter
	Dalton, Marc
	Hoffmann, Juliuss
	Klapwyk, Phil
	Ranta, Steven William
	Yousef, Ahmed
Incumbent:
	Marc Dalton

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			101101 94111 38963 37528 2045.92 km² 49.40/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Marc Dalton	19650	36.20%
	Dan Ruimy **	16125	29.70%
	John Mogk	12958	23.90%
	Ariane Jaschke	4332	8.00%
	Bryton Cherrier	698	1.30%
	Steve Ranta	468	0.90%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Dan Ruimy	17673	33.90%
	Mike Murray	16373	31.40%
	Bob D'Eith	15450	29.60%
	Peter Tam	2202	4.20%
	Steve Ranta	452	0.90%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		21068	54.84%
		13404	34.89%
		2068	5.38%
		1877	4.89%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	15/09/21	Physastr Master 72.182.100.229
Given how skewed against the NDP mainstreet riding-level polling has frequently been, especially in Western Canada, their poll here indicates to me that the NDP are well-positioned, although I don't like making calls off of extrapolation of their terrible record alone. I do however believe based on overall trends that the NDP and Conservatives are likely the most competitive parties here, as the Liberals aren't seeing very notable growth in BC and no longer having an incumbent doesn't help either. The NDP has been taking a bit of a dent lately apparently due to the PPC surge, but I think this is mainly among younger urban voters (see my post in Essex), and since this is pretty far from Vancouver proper I suspect this will behave more like the rest of the west - a clean swing from CPC to PPC, leaving the NDP unscathed and able to win. The green also did pretty well (for a green) last election and there is no green candidate this time, so that will also help. Also note that in the last BC election this is where the NDP most overperformed, absolutely dominating the north bank of the Fraser Valley. tooclosetocall.ca also has this going NDP. There's a lot going right for the NDP here, and I think they'll win.
	04/09/21	Walnut 184.66.107.187
This is one of the more interesting contests and justifiably in the 'too close' category. The Conservatives, Liberals and NDP have all had good showings in the last two elections with only a small shift in votes resulting in unseating the Liberal incumbent Ruimy in 2019. The current polling is projecting a similar 3-way race now. Of the three, my 'prediction' is that the Liberal Yousef will win because he appears to be the best candidate of them with an ability to be charming and relatable and he is with a party that has been targeting growing suburban areas like this with their housing and infrastructure initiatives over multiple elections. The NDP have been surging but it is not clear if that support is coming at the expense of Dalton or Yousef (or equally both). I expect that Yousef will out-perform the Liberal Party in BC and that if Dalton does end up winning, it will be more because of the national campaigns.
	03/09/21	Thomas K 24.85.228.170
The Liberals are in a freefall in BC, I highly doubt they're going to be able to flip this. Marc Dalton is a competent MLA with long-time connections to the community, I don't see him losing. He will probably increase his margin of victory, and perhaps see the Liberals slip to 3rd place behind the NDP.
	01/09/21	Lolitha 161.184.30.62
Mainstreet riding poll has a three way race. Among Decided and leaning: 34 Conservative 30 NDP 27 Liberal https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/PittMeadowsMapleRidge-iPolitics-29August2021.pdf
	25/08/21	A.S. 45.41.168.91
For some reason, my '19 entry for this registered as ‘Liberal’; however, the 3-way supermarginal situation in '15 and the lack of prior Liberal history hereabouts would have made any such firm prediction perverse to the utmost--and besides, the former single-term Lib office-holder isn't running again. And while other than that single term, PMMR might present a recent face of uniform right-of-centre federal representation, upon close inspection it's actually a fairly ‘soft’ face--it might only seem otherwise because of the grip Reform/Alliance once held upon such territory and because of HarperCon incumbent supremacy in '08/'11; but the NDP was consistently in the 32-36% range in the Layton era reflecting this being a serious target, and they only fell off subsequently because of Justinmania and the incumbency that generated. And provincially, the BCNDP now carries this territory by landslide margins, rather than the lesser margins going into '19. It's vulnerable, make no mistake.
	19/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Marc Dalton is a first term mp although he had been a bc liberal mla for this area previously . so he’s fairly well known in the riding by now. This is a long time conservative area of bc , true it somehow went liberal in 2015 but every other election in recent memory been right of centre parties elected here .
	26/07/21	Thomas K 24.85.228.170
TCTC for now: this will be a riding to watch on election night. Although the NDP probably won't be a serious contender to win the seat, they have a strong presence in this riding and could very well steal some votes away from the incumbent Liberal, allowing the CPC to take this. It will all come down to the NDP's strength in BC and whether the Conservatives can recover some support from their current polling trough.