Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-31 12:26:00

Constituency Profile



Barrack, Andrea

Bell, Jessica

Kanary, John

Leventakis, James

Qiu, Carl

Saxe, Dianne

Jessica Bell

Population (2016):

Population (2011):98605

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

19,085 48.10%
7,311 18.43%
9,629 24.27%
2,801 7.06%
OTHERS 852 2.15%
Total Transposed 39,677
      Component Riding(s)

(68.73% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Toronto Centre
(31.27% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Chrystia Freeland **
Melissa Jean-Baptiste Vajda
Helen-Claire Tingling
Tim Grant
Aran Lockwood
Liz White
Drew Garvie
Karin Brothers
Steve Rutchinski

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Chrystia Freeland **
Jennifer Hollett
Karim Jivraj
Nick Wright
Jesse Waslowski
Simon Luisi
Drew Garvie
David Berlin
Steve Rutchinski


31/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
Rising Green support in Rosedale should keep this in the NDP's column. It would be a bit harder to tell how this riding would lean otherwise, since it has both strong NDP and Liberal areas. Would not be surprised if it does end up Liberal though, would just mean I am wrong about where the Green support takes comes from.
28/05/2022 Mark Shaw
This riding is too close to call. University-Rosedale leans Liberal, but Jessica Bell is campaigning hard and the Liberals aren't doing particularly well province-wide. It'll be a close race between Liberals and NDP, I suspect a result within
26/05/2022 CD
Polling breakdowns are consistently showing Liberals leading the NDP by a significant margin in the 416. This makes it highly unlikely the NDP can hold on to a riding like this one which leans Liberal.
26/05/2022 Ontario Voter
The NDP will hold on to this riding with a reduced margin of victory. The Liberals are invisible in the “university” part of the riding with the NDP and even the Greens winning the sign war there. Unfortunately for them the Conservatives strength in Rosedale will prevent the Liberals from running up the large margins they need there to offset the NDP strength in the western part of the riding. The Greens are running a surprisingly strong campaign here with Dianne Saxe, expect them to possibly surpass 10% of the vote.
23/05/2022 jeff316
Commenters in the enviro community were a bit surprised to see Diane Same, formerly "Canada's Top Environmental Lawyer" (TM)(R), join in with the Greens. Her history in private practice and previously in government, not to mention personality, make her an odd fit for electoral politics. But maybe that's what being Environmental Commissioner does to you, since former PC-candidate Gore Miller made the same leap after a decade plus as the first Environmental Commissioner. (If that's the case, no wonder Ford axed the Saxe.) She will certainly best the previous candidate's 5%, and the question is where will those voters come from - the NDP or the Liberals? Fly-by commenters will assume the NDP. Given the lacklustre Liberal campaign, Barrack's lack of signage, and Del Duca being a poor fit for this type of riding, it's more like coming from former Liberal voters. Sure, some principled Dippers will vote her way, but if Saxe keeps it around 15%, and the PCs hold around the 20% mark, the NDP should be ok to hold on to this riding with low 30s.
18/05/2022 Dr. Drae
NDP will hold this one. Libs are running too weak to recover their lost voters in the riding and the Green's have a star candidate who will take much of the soft Lib vote here.
18/05/2022 CD
This is a natural liberal riding unless the NDP have a great night June 2. Unlikely Jessica Bell holds on to this one.
17/05/2022 R.O.
This riding has been mentioned as being one of the Green’s top targets as there running a high profile candidate Dianne Saxe and had party leader Mike Schreiner visit the riding a few times. Although seems like a big hill to climb as they only got 5% of the vote here last time so perhaps a much improved green result is more likely. And they’d need the riding to turn into a 3 or even 4 way race to have a chance. Its not really a strong pc riding but there likely to still get there 20 % again. Harder to predict what ndp and liberals do here, what should have been a liberal target doesn’t seem to have become one.
15/05/2022 Danny
It seems like the Greens are running a fairly strong candidate and campaign here. Signs don't vote, of course, but I'm noticing that a lot of the houses that had Liberal signs out in front in 2018 (in Rosedale and the more expensive parts of the Annex) have got Green Party signs this time, while the NDP has remained relatively consistent in their strongholds. I think a strong Green campaign hurts the Libs more, who did not recruit a notable candidate. Bell works hard for her voters. Barring a total collapse in the NDP vote to under 20%, which at this point seems unlikely. I expect she'll hang on fairly easily.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
This will be an interesting race to watch. I do think Andrea Barrack of the Liberals is likely to unseat NDPer Jessica Bell, but there are some strongly NDP-leaning areas (The "University") that could beat the Liberal areas (The "Rosedale"). Green deputy leader Dianne Saxe is also running a spirited campaign, and after Parry Sound-Muskoka, I think this is their next most likely pick-up. Still, on balance, I think it'll be a Liberal win.
07/04/22 Chris N
The Green candidate Dianne Saxe is running a surprisingly strong campaign in the riding. Now, this does not mean the Greens will win, but it does add an interesting x-factor in the horse race between the NDP and Liberals. Previous national polls suggest Greens peel votes away from Liberals and NDP roughly evenly. How will this play out in University-Rosedale? Will be a fun race to watch.
31/03/22 R.O.
Jessica Bell was first elected in 2018 when the ndp swept the downtown area of Toronto. First election this exact riding existed provincially but would have been a liberal riding in 2014. Not sure how much of an advantage being an incumbent in downtown Toronto is. Andrea Barrack is the new liberal candidate not exactly high profile when compared to the ridings liberal mp Chrystia Freeland .new pc candidate is Carl Qiu but not a riding there likely to focus on as its never been pc in recent elections.
29/03/22 A.S.
One potential result of '18's inner-Toronto ONDP sweep might be if it henceforth "municipalizes" provincial politics--that is, akin to municipal wards where the incumbent NDP-machine grand-coalition juggernaut's so formidable that "non-socialist" or dissident attempts to break it come across as no-hope wishful think. Thus Rosedale as a containable or "coalitionable" rump, much as it became for Bell in '18, and much as it's become for Mike Layton municipally (or Kyle Rae or KWT before him, even if both were impelled to to soft-pedal their past or subsequent NDP affiliations). Still, we're talking about Chrystia Freeland's federal seat; so if the provincial Libs are seeking stepping stones t/w former strength, don't blame them for looking here.
26/03/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
This seat seems to be pretty middle of the road between the NDP leaning ridings of downtown(Davenport, Parkdale, Danforth), and the Liberal leaning ones(Spadina, Centre, Beaches). Whoever of those the election tilts in favour of should win this, though who that is remains to be seen
Liberal pick up because Liberals have a new leader.
10/06/21 Chris N
The Liberal are polling better than they did in their disastrous 2018 showing, so I suspect they will be competitive in University-Rosedale in 2022. The NDP traditionally does well in the western end of the riding, while the Liberals and Conservatives compete for the rest of the riding. Of course, the Conservatives have no chance at winning the riding, but they can pluck votes away from the Liberals in the wealthier pockets like Yorkville and Rosedale, helping the NDP.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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