Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Humber River-Black Creek

Prediction Changed
2022-05-19 00:28:00

Constituency Profile



Berry, Keith

Caunei, Iulian

Gonzalez, Lee Miguel

Li Preti, Ida

Nguyen, Paul

Rakocevic, Tom

Singh, Knia

Tom Rakocevic

Population (2016):

Population (2011):108198

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

11,907 46.71%
2,794 10.96%
9,997 39.21%
418 1.64%
OTHERS 378 1.48%
Total Transposed 25,494
      Component Riding(s)

York West
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Judy Sgro **
Maria Augimeri
Iftikhar Choudry
Mike Schmitz
Ania Krosinska
Stenneth Smith
Christine Nugent

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Judy Sgro **
Kerry Vandenberg
Darnel Harris
Keith Jarrett
Christine Nugent


31/05/2022 Linsi
I went to this riding this weekend, and there were a good mix of all 3 parties' lawn signs. However, Not One Seat endorsed the Liberal candidate here and strategic voters will vote for the Liberals to prevent the PCs from winning.
30/05/2022 PY
Don't forget the presence of Knia Singh (most recently known as one of the lawyers who represented the family of Regis Korchinski-Paquet) in this race as an independent candidate, as he could potentially siphon off votes here based on his name recognition alone. If he succeeds in doing so on June 2, it'll be game over for Tom Rakocevic.
28/05/2022 ME
The sitting MPP is respected and is likely to win coming from behind
27/05/2022 Not Non-Partisan
Strictly an NDP-Tory spat here. Sorry Libs, but if Del Duca canít win his own seat, it seems unlikely he can win here. Nguyen is a local guy, Ford is next door and the NDP provincial campaign has plummeted. As surprising as it seemsÖ PC.
27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
This seat went NDP in the Liberal implosion of 2018. With the Liberals fortunes approving somewhat I have them regaining this seat on June 2.
25/05/2022 K
I live here and having lived in this riding for over a decade, it is safe to say I have never seen this many lawn signs for an election in a riding with usually low turnout. Looking at the result in 2018, it appears that all three major parties are piling as many resources as they can and bringing high-profile candidates to win this seat.
In my opinion, of the three parties, the PCs are the least likely to win. Paul Nguyen is a well-known community activist from the riding and Doug Ford is popular in the Etobicoke portion of the riding but the PCs have made themselves quite unpopular in the riding, particularly east of Highway 400 where there are typically more votes. For one, the PC-influenced Metrolinx board tried to sell land to condo developers that was meant for a community hub which was promised with the construction of the Finch West LRT line which ultimately failed due to community backlash. As well, some of the worst-affected LTC homes during the height of the pandemic are located in this riding. Add the high cost of living (in one of the poorest parts of Toronto), and the PC/federal Conservative Party history of using parachute candidates (most notably current Milton MPP Parm Gill and 2018 PC candidate Cyma Musarat who ran in the 2019 federal election in Pickering) and the PCs have a mountain to climb if they want to win this seat.
He may not have been as high-profile within the media as R.O. stated, but I think that Rakocevic has done a good job within the riding. To me, he comes off as someone who prefers to build his profile by working with the community (i.e. trying to secure the promised community hub) rather than plaster himself to the media which is really effective considering that this part of Toronto tends to be more cynical of politicians. This effectiveness is evidenced with NDP lawn signs in parts of this riding where, in a federal election, there would either be Liberal signs or none at all.
As for the Liberals, TCDSB school trustee Ida Li Preti is definitely a more suited candidate than previous candidate Deanna Sgro. Many around here will most likely recognize her last name (being the daughter of former city councilor Peter Li Preti) rather than her work at the Catholic schools in the riding. In my opinion, she is probably the least recognizable of the three major candidates in terms of work within the community.
To conclude, I think the top two will be the Liberals and NDP (barring a surge in support for the PCs and/or a 2018 Liberal-style collapse in support for the Liberals and/or the NDP). 338Canada's modelling and other polling firms suggest that this will be a likely pickup for the Liberals but judging by the lawn signs and amount of effort both the Liberals and NDP are putting in, I think it will be much more closer between 1st and 2nd than in 2018. PCs can win but it would require a surge in support in the riding and/or a near-perfect vote split between Liberal and NDP. Based on the promises of the parties, I believe that this will be decided on turnout. Higher turnout than in previous years? I'd say Li Preti gets this seat. About the same or lower turnout? Rakocevic remains in Queen's Park for another term. There are a lot of people/potential voters here that use public transit and the Liberals' $1 fare idea is certainly popular but these voters tend to be less likely to vote than their car-driving counterparts. As these voters also tend to live in apartments (where you most likely can't put up lawn signs), it is very difficult to determine if they would vote or not, let alone vote Liberal or another party.
21/05/2022 Jimmy
The polls have seemed to have turned around for the NDP. The Libs finished a poor 3rd here last time. Tom Rakocevic is an incredible constituency worker and that matters in HRBC. He has an experienced and talented campaign team. Rakocevic is very popular in the riding. Tom Rakocevic will win here by a comfortable margin. The Tory will finish second (Ford Nation is present in the Northwestern fringe of the riding). The Liberal candidate will finish third.
19/05/2022 R.O.
This is still a tough one to call , geographically close to Etobicoke North which is Ford Nation but been a liberal/ndp riding for decades. I also read that it had very low voter turnout in 2018, so whatever party can manage to get there supporters out has an advantage. The ndp also did very well here in 2014 despite polling low province wide so it might still be a place they have support. Although I canít ever recall seeing Tom Rakocevic on tv or on the news when he was mpp so doesnít seem like he is a high profile mpp. But liberal or pc candidates donít seem high profile either. Strong federal liberal riding so provincial liberals no doubt trying to get those same voters but unclear if that is going to work here.
18/05/2022 CD
Given how close this was in 2018, the Liberal revival in polling in the city will drive this one back to the Liberals.
13/05/2022 willowdale girl
According to the latest forum poll this riding is pickup for the Liberals
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Tom Rakocevic is a strong incumbent MPP for the NDP. I think he has a good shot of holding on, but my money is still on school trustee Ida Li Preti.
23/04/22 Colin O'Neal
As noted in the previous comment, the NDP did surprisngly well here in 2014, at a time when the NDP lost Toronto seats. This makes me wonder if the NDP has a better chance of holding onto this seat that previously thought. One possible factor in the race is Del Duca, who, as an Italian, could be appealing to an elecorate with a very large Italian constituency.
30/03/22 A.S.
*Federally*, it might be bombproof Liberal--but actually, provincially speaking, prior to the last election it was one of the more *NDP-vulnerable* Liberal ridings, thanks to Mario Sergio's stale-datedness and Rakocevic's previous vigorous challenges. In fact, Rakocevic's share went *down* in victory in '18, because of the unforeseen Ford Nation surge up the middle. Though the Li Preti name's an established one around these parts, while the Del Duca name might have extra pull among the Italo-suburbans--still, incumbency's incumbency, and last I heard, Doug Ford's still representing the riding next door, so it'll also be a test of whatever inner-ethnoburban scouring power Ford Nation retains provincially. In that case, for all one knows, Rakocevic could finish *third*.
17/03/22 seasaw
Prior to the last election, this was one of the most reliable Liberal ridings. It is going to be one of the first ridings that will flip back.
15/03/22 R.O.
Tom Rakocevic was first elected here in 2018, there was no incumbent that election as longtime liberal mpp Mario Sergio retired. Being an incumbent city councillor in Toronto can be a big advantage although less sure how much of an advantage there is provincially. Riding also geographically close to Etobicoke North but never been a pc riding in recent memory but they did do better than expected last election. New pc candidate is Paul Nguyen and Ida Li Preti is running for liberals.
27/05/21 Chris N
The NDP picked up this riding in 2018, edging out the PCs who significantly increased their vote share in 2018 over 2014. With a rejuvenated Liberal Party, expect a three way race in 2022.

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