Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Parry Sound-Muskoka


Prediction Changed
2022-06-01 02:48:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Cocks, Andrew John

Horvath, Erin

Maynard, Doug

Predie Jr., Daniel

Richter, Matt

Smith, Graydon

Waddell, Brad


Incumbent:
Norm Miller

Population (2016):

Population (2011):94400


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

NORM MILLER *
22,66248.07%
ERIN HORVATH
10,38522.03%
MATT RICHTER
9,43820.02%
BRENDA RHODES
4,0718.64%
JEFF MOLE
2190.46%
CHRIS PACKER
1960.42%
JOSHUA MACDONALD
1720.36%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

10,158 26.25%
15,761 40.73%
4,999 12.92%
7,484 19.34%
OTHERS 296 0.76%
Total Transposed 38,698
      Component Riding(s)

Parry Sound-Muskoka
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Scott Aitchison
22,84541.80%
Trisha Cowie
16,61530.40%
Gord Miller
8,40915.40%
Tom Young
6,41711.70%
Daniel Predie Jr
3770.70%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Tony Clement **
22,20643.30%
Trisha Cowie
19,93738.90%
Matt McCarthy
5,18310.10%
Glen Hodgson
3,7047.20%
Duncan Bell Pirate/Pirate
1210.20%
Gordie Merton
880.20%
Albert Gray Smith
400.10%


 

01/06/2022 dtcaslick
74.12.184.254
Yeah, as I said I'm on the mailing list...so I'm getting spammed by the Green Party right now. They are poring it all into Parry Sound-Muskoka. They're bussing in volunteers from out-of-town. This is similar to Kitchener Centre in that there is no Liberal candidate. Additionally, the incumbent, Norm Miller, is not running. I'll leave this one blank since I got your attention with the Green prediction the last time, but don't be surprised. Polls in Kitchener Centre said it was a dead heat. Guess what...it wasn't Morrice won easily. Strange things happen, especially when you have shifting voter dynamics (read: New Blue/Convoy Party). If New Blue pulls in PPC numbers, there could be some interesting twists Thursday. Pro-convoy people don't strike me as the sort who like to take polls.
01/06/2022 R.O.
24.146.13.249
The green support seems to be from various demographics and ages , whats interesting they used to win the high school vote here by massive numbers. yet that younger demographic doesnít seem to be whats fueling there surge here. in fact a lot of those students might not even be in this riding anymore or too busy with summer jobs to bother helping out. Either way not much evidence there is an army of university students helping them out here although they may still be voting green as mainstreet poll showed higher support among younger people. But Richter has been campaigning here since 2007 so this would be his 5th campaign in the riding so I think heís familiar with the riding and rural campaign style by now. Graydon Smith when he last campaigned municipally didnít really face any tough challengers and was acclaimed as pc candidate so didnít have to face off against other pc challengers for nomination. Due to being such a safe pc riding would of likely been significant interest if there had been an open pc nomination. When Norm Miller won it back in 2001 was 5 or 6 others who wanted it and nomination meeting so large it was held in a high school gym. Although fairly sure Smith would of won nomination either way even if some others had run against him. Canít think of any reason either why people here be upset at Ford/pcís as they just made a big hospital funding announcement here and local economy is doing fairly well. Many business so busy they actually canít find enough staff for summer season. But still a ton of green signs around the riding even in south Muskoka/Bracebridge area which is Smithís hometown. But feel green supporters are slightly more likely to put up a sign especially this year with increased interest. In the end could see it being won by a couple % either way
01/06/2022 prog15
72.141.255.214
It is understandable that long-time Green activist Matt Richter might think his time has come (he ran here every time since 2007 election) since he hit 20% last time, his party has put an emphasis on this area on par with Guelph, and continuous inflow of wealthy entitled left based on income from non-producing industries (like progressivist junk science-biased education) plus COVID urban 'refugees' increases attraction to the allegedly 'green' label as the one to ally around for progressivism-biased voters. Retirement of popular Norm Miller, a son of respected late former Premier and good social conservative Frank Miller, creates an opportunity. Far left vote will however be split between Richter and once again running NDP Erin Horvath (Libs are not really competitive here) and I doubt Richter can get above the 2nd place as the PC base remains strong even without likely help from a section of Libs voting Trudeau federally, similar to 905 trends, essentially. For good or not, PC centrism (by modern leftist standards, anyway), and in particular dangers of Wynne-like government waste under the left, will help PCs here as their base remains anti-left in the first place and the new candidate is known (though, perhaps, for some a sad break with Miller family traditions, yet no time for being sentimental!). There does remain a good question, though, for many years to come whether the snake oil of big G Green Party as a label can be sold to a larger post-Christian non-conservative group of voters than Lib or NDP labels when these parties become unpopular or tainted with mismanagement as is certainly the case for the Libs today - to pursue the same policies. At the moment, though, even though this area is regrettably not as traditionally conservative as under Frank Miller in the 1980s, it retains a stronger base of modern PC supporters committed to defeating the left than of the left supporters who would likely gradually overrun it in future like the Vancouver Island.
01/06/2022 Kyle H
24.141.80.207
Let's tell a quick story, shall we?
A government is seeking re-election, and despite a poor record and unpopular leader, they look set to win a majority, even potentially a strengthened one, because of their poor opposition. The only question is around a particular riding with a strong Green candidate and lots of buzz who is seeking to oust a member of that government. When you visit this site of course, *everyone* says they don't have a chance, and EPP itself says there's zero way it'll happen.
What election am I talking about? How about basically all of them.
Saanich-Gulf Islands, 2011: Con majority, EPP says it stays Con. Green wins.
Oak Bay-Gordon Head, 2013: BCL Majority, EPP says it stays BC Lib. Green wins.
If PEI was on this site in 2015 I'm pretty sure y'all would've said Bevan-Baker didn't have a chance to take out the PEI Liberal incumbent too, same with NB in 2014.
This is prime territory for the Greens, it has all the hallmarks of an upset. I'm not saying it will happen of course - we all recognize its a tough battle. But given y'all's record you should think twice before being as sure as you all say you are about a PC win.
01/06/2022 NJam101
216.167.228.27
I don't see why many voters here would be turned off by the PCs after voting for them for decades. A definite PC win.
Yes, this riding is in the Georgian Bay area which has had some pretty impressive numbers for Green candidates over the last 10-15 years. And yes, the Green Party will be seen as the alternative to voting PC in this riding. But I just don't see the Green vote being high enough.
01/06/2022 Dr Bear
82.8.28.63
@dtcaslick: Iíd be careful drawing parallels between the federal KC vote and this one. While much of what you said is true, the major difference is that in Kitchener Centre, the favoured to win, Liberal incumbent was basically kicked out of the party during the campaign. The votes that would otherwise go Liberal, found a comfortable home in Morrisí camp, leading to his win. This isnít the case in PS-M. Instead we have a PC incumbent whoís still in the race and a party poised for a majority. There isnít as large a glut of votes to bolster the Greenís numbers.
31/05/2022 Chris N
154.6.27.44
I have this as a PC hold. I think a key part of the Greens' victories in Guelph and Kitchener Centre (federally) were due to their huge pool of young volunteers, especially university students. The Greens don't have this kind of ground game in Parry Sound-Muskoka. It's a different style of campaigning in rural communities, a style that the PCs have mastered over many elections. I think this riding stays blue on Thursday.
30/05/2022 dtcaslick
74.12.184.254
I know nothing about this riding, but I am a federal Green Party volunteer for Kitchener Centre MP Mike Morrice. This means I'm on the mailing list. Their internal polling has them ahead. Their polling for Morrice was right on the nose, so don't be surprised if they win. And before you accuse me of being partisan, I am supporting the NDP candidate provincially.
31/05/2022 R.O.
24.146.13.249
The pcís have typically not run aggressive campaigns in this riding maybe that goes back to the Norm Miller years when they didnít have to do a lot. Its not like a 905 riding , wouldnít have a busy campaign office or significant amount of door to door canvassing. If you lived in a rural area doubtful anyone ever come to your door. So perhaps that has allowed for the greens to appear to be running a better campaign here with more signs up than normal . The green leader is back again but oddly campaigning in Burks Falls a small town north of Huntsville that I canít recall ever being visited by a party leader although a former pc mp Stan Darling did live there years ago. Graydon Smith has also released a list of local endorsements mainly former and current mayors from Muskoka/Huntsville area which include Scott Aitchison the mp but not sure theyíll alter race that much. So many factors in play will voters choose an mpp from a smaller party without official party status in legislature over having an mpp likely in government . typically opposition mppís arenít able to deliver much when compared to having an mpp in government but Norm Miller was in opposition a long time so this riding hasnít always been in government but has always had a pc mpp when they were. The greens will definitely do really well here but still an election where pcís lead province wide so tough to see them not holding the riding. Unless the green surge is being fueled by a desire for change not a dislike of the Ford pcís if that makes any sense I havenít found it to be a logical election here.
29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
All of a sudden this looks like one of the most talked about ridings in Ontario. Yes there is no Liberal candidate here but in 2018 the Liberal vote was still not enough translated now to make the PC's lose. Maybe the Greens do deserve a 2nd seat but the PC history in this seat will prevent that. PC hold here in a close battle.
29/05/2022 Julian
76.71.64.8
The problem with basing a prediction off the prior vote percentages, is that it's not the exact same pool of people who vote in each election. As support swings this way or that way for different parties it energizes or suppresses different parts of the electorate. So it's not just a matter of vote trading it's also a matter of who bothers to show up at the polls that day. I think it's correct that this riding is too close to call and frankly may remain so until after 9:00 p.m. on Thursday.
28/05/2022 B
172.102.229.148
I disagree with the assessment that the PCs have a strong GOTV effort in this riding. They have certainly have stepped it up in the recent weeks once it was clear the PCs do not have this riding on lock. These historically strong blue rural ridings heavily rely on incumbency and the habit of voting PC being carried down through generations. The PCs have taken this area for granted and not ready to run a competitive campaign.
On the other hand, the Greens have hundreds of volunteers and have flooded the region with outside resources as well. Apparently they have knocked on almost every single door in the urban parts of the riding which the PCs have never done. There is also evidence that the Greens are tapping into voters who traditionally do not bother to vote because it is usually a forgone conclusion. Sure, they likely are not taking many votes from the PCs, but they are going to make up for that in new voters.
Over 30k of registered voters did not vote in 2018 which is more than the votes that the PC candidate got! If the Greens can tap into just a portion of that they will win it easily. The PCs are clearly running scared as they have been pushing out attack ad against the Greens. A winning campaign would not be doing this.
28/05/2022 Abe
70.109.49.64
Certainly think the polls are interesting here - have seen some with the Greens ahead and one with the PCs ahead. Think this ultimately goes with the PCs though, they had 48% of the vote here last time and I don't think that many people are dissatisfied overall with the PCs for this riding to shift Green. Almost all Liberal and NDP voters would need to vote Green for them to have a chance.
28/05/2022 R.O.
24.146.13.249
There is another riding poll for Parry Sound Muskoka , mentioned in a citynews article on key ridings and by Forum. There numbers were 53 Graydon Smith pc , 30 Matt Richter Green. These numbers show an increase in green support from 2018 but have the pcís still well ahead. The mainstreet poll had slightly different numbers with greens ahead so my gut tells me the real numbers are somewhere in between the 2 polls so pcís somewhere in the mid 40ís and greens mid 30ís .
https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/05/26/ontario-election-2022-key-ridings-to-watch/
27/05/2022 seasaw
99.225.210.37
All these people predicting Green, letís take a closer look, letís assume that everyone who voted Green the last time votes for them again this time, so thatís 21%, then letís assume that all 100% of the Liberal vote goes to Green, so thatís another 8%, so now weíre up to 29%, for the Greens, then letís say half the NDP vote goes Green, so now weíre at 39%, letís say the PCís get 4% less and all of that goes to Green, weíll have the PCís at 44% and Green at 43%. Folks, we all know that the chances of the above scenario is slim to none. Yes the Greens will take most of the Liberal vote as well as votes from the NDP and the PCís, but not nearly enough to win
27/05/2022 CD
174.89.14.220
As PC numbers still seem lower than majority territory in some polling, it's likely the Greens will be successful here.
26/05/2022 R.O.
24.146.13.249
There is a shock mainstreet poll for this riding that shows the greens leading. Iím sure others will post it but I wanted to look thru it in more depth as it has some unusual findings. Among age the greens are doing the best among 15-50 but still have a small lead among 50-65. The pcís lead among those 65 plus . based on education the pcís lead among those with only high school or college/trade school. The greens have a huge lead among the university educated. There is almost no gender difference , pc , ndp and green support the same among men and women. Greens lead among men and women . most bizarre finding is income , pcís lead among those making 50,000 or less but greens lead in those making more and have a huge lead among those making 100,000 plus. So the green base is younger, university educated and have good jobs . the pc base is older seniors but also more average people with lower incomes and trades type jobs. But they claim the pcís are only polling 36 % here which doesnít seem believable as they got 48 % last election and polls have the pcís leading province wide by large margins. Were also into day 8 of advance polls and the older pc base is more likely to vote at them so they could already have a lot of votes in. so the greens are doing really well here and going to be much closer than anyone ever though possible. Perhaps could come down to a small number of voters who have or willing to vote either green or pc in the past and which way they go. also fringe party voters and if they stay with Ontario party and New Blue candidates who have no chance of winning just to make a statement.
25/05/2022 Kyle H
24.141.80.207
Contrary to what LFCOttawa is saying, the Greens have consistently outraised the PCs locally here and have enough resources province-wide to pour mightily into this riding, whether that's monetary transfers from the party or volunteers from the south and north. They have the momentum and they're running with it. I think Mike Schreiner will be getting at least one new friend June 2.
23/05/2022 LFCOttawa
174.114.107.158
Polls are one thing. GOTV is another. The PCPO machine that has won this seat for decades is going to run over the green momentum with ground work that the greens don't have the volunteer base or the money to support.
22/05/2022 ME
69.165.143.166
The Greens are almost tied with the PC and with the surge and the lack of a Liberal candidate the Greens will win their second seat
20/05/2022 Phoenix
104.158.131.152
I'm noticing quite a few NDPers and PCers who have signs on their lawns changing to Green and Matt Richter.
20/05/2022 Dr Bear
216.154.42.212
The Greens will make it interesting, and I think will come solidly in second. However this is too much of a conservative riding to flip.
20/05/2022 Finn
174.114.72.203
As of May 19th, CBC has the Greens winning this seat. While it still seems more likely that the PCs win than the Greens, this is the first major prediction network projecting the Greens ahead.
17/05/2022 Eric
71.88.194.97
PCs hang on, however narrowly. The last time that any of the riding voted bucked a province-wide conservative trend was back in 1945 when the Parry Sound part of the current riding went Liberal. 77 years on and it appears that Ford has a plurality of the province-wide vote ... so let's put the PCs then in the lower 40s, and the NDP have a very credible candidate who has run here before, and some of the would-be Liberal vote will probably line up behind her if for no other reason than the Greens are a much longer shot in forming government, so let's say mid to low 20s NDP ... that might put the Greens, who traditionally outpoll their province wide totals here, in the mid to high 30s ... close maybe but still blue ...
16/05/2022 The Lobster
104.246.136.88
The Green focus, loss of PC incumbent, and lack of Liberal candidate all make this a more interesting race than we might have expected. Having said that, I have grave reservations that PCs will actually lose this seat. It is one of about 7 or 8 seats in the province (with SimcoeóGrey, Simcoe North, WellingtonóHalton Hills, Carleton, KanataóCarleton, Leeds-Grenville, and, arguably, LanarkóFrontenac) that stayed Conservative not only in the McGuinty/Wynne years, but also the Peterson/Rae years. (I say ďaboutĒ and ďlikelyĒ given that boundaries have changed. See the below post about the Parry Sound portion of this riding being PC for 77 years.)
It would seem very odd that PCs will lose now in an election in which they are clearly going to win the most seats and very likely to win a majority. They will likely get north of 45% of the vote on their own, which shows what an uphill battle GPO has. Again, Iím very curious to see how well theyíll do. But it seems a big stretch to expect them to win it.
15/05/2022 B
172.102.229.148
This riding has historically been a PC stronghold, however that is at risk in this election. The PCs have benefited from a fairly significant split in the progressive vote between the Liberals, NDP and Greens in the past allowing them to win with an overwhelming plurality of the vote. There does seem to be a significant amount of momentum behind the Greens in this election and the lack of a Liberal candidate will only serve to fuel the Green momentum even more. Green signs easily out number PC signs by 2:1 on private property which Iíve never seen in an election.
As long as the NDP doesnít peel enough votes from the Greens, they could be in striking distance of the PCs right now. I havenít seen a single NDP sign on private property so it looks like they might not be an issue. With the stars aligning for the Greens, itís likely they pour tons of resources in to this riding now that they have a decent chance. Regardless how strongly this riding usually vote PC, itís hard to see how theyíll be able to hold on when the Greens throw everything they have at taking it. So Iíd give the Greens the advantage but itís a slim one.
On the other hand, the PCs have a recruited the Mayor of Bracebridge, Graydon Smith to run as their candidate who is super popular in South Muskoka. There is a lot of unknowns about how he will perform in the more rural parts of the riding which tend to lean more to the right and Smith has been fairly moderate to slightly centre-left as mayor. With multiple right-wing populist parties running, they might capture a fairly big chunk of the rural vote and keep Smith under 40% and vulnerable to the Greens. It doesnít help that Smith has been skipping a lot of the local community debates which the outgoing PC MPP never did. It might not seem like much, but in these small communities where he isnít as widely know it could cost him a lot of votes.
13/05/2022 PY
99.230.134.135
It doesn't appear that the Liberals were able to secure a candidate here, so their loss could be the Greens' gain, especially if an 'anybody but Ford' movement coalesces their way. That's a pretty big 'if' or 'ask,' as the kids say.
While he definitely doesn't control the universe, I think Matt Richter's chances seem to be better than deputy leader Dianne Saxe's in University--Rosedale.
13/05/2022 Libby Burgundy
198.91.168.66
The Liberals have dropped their candidate and will not be able to nominate anyone else. This does create an opening, particularly for the Greens, who have now twice achieved a ~20% result in this provincial district: if the local Liberals turn Green and the NDP's province-wide decline plays out here as well (with supporters decamping for the Greens instead of the absent Liberals), the Green Party might well achieve 30-40% of the vote here on election night.
It's not unthinkable that this could be enough to win. Unlikely, but not unthinkable.
13/05/2022 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Since last post liberals found a new Candidate Barry Stanley then dropped him as candidate and failed to find a new one before deadline . he was a very odd choice as a candidate for a major party , virtually unknown in the riding and author of a controversial book the liberals were seemingly unaware of. So race now between Graydon Smith pc , Erin Horvath ndp, Matt Richter green and not 1 but 5 fringe party candidates. Ford also has a cottage in the riding and known for making frequent appearances in the nearby towns but yet to campaign here this election. The greens have been running energetic campaigns here for a few elections now and do manage to put up a a lot of signs on homes. Although very tough to determine how many votes theyíll get here this election and in 2018 the pcís did very well here better than past years. Graydon Smith still a well known candidate who served as a local mayor , Matt Richter also seems to be well liked despite never actually being elected to any positions in the riding. If the greens do better than expected here its cause voters tired of the pcís not cause they actually dislike them at least thatís my sense as not any local issues this election. The Parry Sound portion of this riding has been pc since 1945 and Muskoka since 1995.
13/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
23.248.145.246
While it was already the Green's best shot at a pickup(albeit low), without a Liberal candidate, I think they now have a very strong change here, in a riding with a similar Green base as in Kitchener(think old).
10/05/2022 AGP
135.23.232.40
The Green momentum seems surprisingly strong here. This will be a tough battle, but with no PC incumbent, the Liberals lagging on a candidate, and two right-wing splinter parties to pull the antis from the PC vote - this may, just may be a GPO breakthrough.
29/04/2022 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Just became aware the liberals have no candidate here saw a brief article that says Brandy Huff resigned as candidate a few weeks back but never made the news until now and her name has been removed from party website. Its unclear who there new candidate will be but they still plan to run someone. Although not convinced there a major factor here as Del Duca not well known up north and done poorly here lately. The pcís also made a major hospital funding announcement for Muskoka last week when Ford came to the riding , this had been a major issue in the riding due to the large population of local seniors and residents concerned about the future of the 2 muskoka hospitals. The green leader has also been here several times when heís not in Guelph or provincial legislature.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
I'm going on a bit of limb here. Norm Miller was a popular guy with an important pedigree. The PCs did about as well as they could to replace him, tapping Bracebridge Mayor Graydon Smith. This will be Matt Richter's fifth run at the seat. Green numbers are WAY up in Northern Ontario consistently in each new poll. I don't think there are many other places where those votes will pan out, and I think the Greens know this too. They'll throw everything and the kitchen sink at this seat to bring in their second MPP, and I think they'll succeed.
21/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
If the Greens were into gunning for a second seat to compliment Mike Schreiner, then another Matt Richter run in an open-seat situation in PSM would seem like a front-of-the-line opportunity. Of course, the PCs aren't going to let that ball drop in Doug Ford's summer cottage riding; so to compliment how MP and Milhouse Van Houten lookalike Tony Clement was federally succeeded by Huntsville mayor Scott Aitchison, MPP Norm Miller is being succeeded by Bracebridge mayor and Peter Griffin lookalike Graydon Smith. Who's likely to succeed in classic Norm Miller fashion vs a 3-way split, heheheheheheh.
19/04/22 Kyle Hutton
24.141.80.207
While I think the PCs have a strong in-built advantage here, the Greens and Matt Richter are making a very serious push to win the riding. Heavy outside canvass support, consistently strong fundraising numbers (the Greens have dominated local fundraising in PS-M for the last four years), and the Green specialty - a long-running candidate with strong roots in the community.
With Miller gone, Ford's wobbly popularity, and clear signs of the Greens being the main opposition here, there is the potential for something like a 40-40 knife fight. Keep an eye on the riding folks.
04/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Norm Miller is not running again and announced his retirement a couple months back , new pc candidate is Graydon Smith who is mayor of Bracebridge. Long time pc riding although you usually see a lot of green signs here but Matt Richer still came in 3rd last 2 elections. The liberal candidate not well known in the riding neither is ndp candidate although she did well due to ndp surge in 2018.id imagine riding will stay pc as long as Graydon Smith runs a half descent campaign.
06/06/21 Chris Nethercott
24.36.32.209
Based on recent elections, this will be a PC hold. The Liberals and NDP have nominated strong candidates but it won't be enough to topple Miller.



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