1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Ruth Lovell
Progressive Conservative Party:
Bill Murdoch MPP
New Democratic Party:
Colleen Purdon
Green Party:
Grant Pattulo
Family Coalition Party:
John Clark

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Bruce (47%):
Barbara Fisher
Grey-Owen Sound (79%):
Bill Murdoch

Member of Parliament:
Ovid Jackson

Surrounding Ridings:
Parry Sound-Muskoka

Population: 96 224
Avg Household Income 40 048
Language (Home)
English 93 070
Submitted Information
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03/15/99 Email:
An easy Tory win. Bill Murdoch is an independent-minded MPP with strong support in the community; last election he beat a highly regarded Liberal candidate by a crushing margin.
03/21/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Bill Murdoch's maverick nature is a mixed blessing; he may be a welcome prick in the PC armor, but for some this prick is even more paleolithic than the rest. (Think way back to Michael Valpy's G&M accounts of Murdoch, in his Sydenham Township reeve days, as a Niagara Escarpment conservationists' nightmare.) He's also one of the few Ontario PCs to be pretty much upfront about his federal Reform allegiances--but considering that this was one of three Ontario ridings in 1997 where Reform came within 5 points of winning, that might not be such a bad thing. Now that 1995's Common Sense euphoria has subsided, I can see the opposition's clawing and scratching having a little more token effect--but not enough, not by a long shot. More likely, the central opposition-party organizations will concentrate their efforts elsewhere rather than waste their time weaning Bruce-Grey from its happy-go-lucky right-populist indulgence...
04/19/99 MS Email: jackso2@yahoo.com
The Tories will be nominating their candidate on April 20. I heart that the candidate is a young guy wityh strong roots in the PC party. I wouldn't underestimate the strength of th PC campaign.
04/25/99 Joe Email:
I do not live in this riding. However, I have been an admirer of Bill Murdock's independent streak (but not of his party or his policies). He will be a strong candidate. However, he is open to challenge. When the municipal downloading occured he swore it would be revenue neutral. He said he would resign if it wasn't. As we all know it was not revenue neutral. Bill skated the issue and did not keep his word by resigning. This downloading has thrown municipalities into a mess figuring out tax rates. A wise opponent might use this against Bill. It might help defeat him.
05/12/99 e. Email:
The PCs may have a problem in this riding with the Family Coalition Party stealing some of their votes. A large number of people who would ordinarily have supported the FCP in the last election voted PC due to their perception that the PCs promised to curb access to abortion. That didn't happen, and now the people who left the FCP for the PCs in the last election feel betrayed, and may jump back. This could take enough PC votes to allow the Liberal candidate to slip through. In addition, this area has a very long history of voting Liberal. If Murray Elston came back, you could guarantee a Liberal win.
05/25/99 R.D. Email:
While I offer no prediction. Hanover and Walkerton showing majority Liberal lawn signs, Durham majority PC signs. Owen Sound will be where the election will be won. Mr. Murdoch was chastised heavily at the Walkerton all-candidates meeting and refuses to attend an open meeting in Owen Sound. Only agreed to a closed meeting attended by media. Does this mean the more people in Owen Sound hear him the less the will like?
05/29/99 lrs Email:
Pc should win - candidate to weel known- parts of riding have old Liberal past - NDP vote will have to be small for Liberal win- smaller plurality for PC but likely hold

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Last Updated 31st May 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
This site is maintained by Milton Chan