1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Marion Reidel
Progressive Conservative Party:
Ted Arnott MPP
New Democratic Party:
Richard Walsh-Bowers
Green Party:
Brent Bouteiller
Family Coalition Party:
Gord Truscott

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Kitchener Wolmot (37%):
Gary Leadston
Waterloo North (25%):
Hon. Elizabeth Witmer
Wellington (61%):
Ted Arnott

Member of Parliament:
Lyn Myers

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: 101 770
Avg Household Income 53 624
Language (Home)
English 90 170
German 6 555
Submitted Information
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03/23/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Within these boundaries, thanks to earlier configurations it was an 87-90-95 swing riding; but colour it comfortably deep blue today. Arnott's old constituency was perennially Tory (and includes Fergus, the hometown of the Beatty family, of stoveworks and Perrin fame). Recent patterns dictate that most of the rest'll follow suit--this is classic conservative rural/small-town Ontario (except for a rump of suburban Kitchener), and includes the heart of Mennonite country to boot.
05/19/99 G. Bell Email: sbell@nonline.net
I disagree with the predicted PC victory. Ted Arnott has no recognition in Waterloo Region or south Kitchener; his status as an incumbent will carry no weight in the most populous part of the riding. Waterloo Region's rural demographic in Woolwich, Wellesley and Wilmot has historically supported the Liberals (the German Catholic and Mennonite vote). The Liberal candidate, being a woman, will have more resonance in the Kitchener area which is populated by soccer moms in middle class neighbourhoods. The Liberal candidate has support in Elora where she was a successful local politician. Ted Arnott's home community, Arthur, is now out of riding in Dufferin-Peel, and half of his old riding has been hived off to Guelph-Wellington. For 9 years he has been a backbench non-entity with no accomplishments, other than a clock tower in Elora, to trumpet as a reason to vote for him in the new part of the riding. For the last 4 years he has been the parliamentary assistant in the Economic Development and Trade ministry, the backest backwater of any portfolio. The only notable event appended to that ministry is the recent scandal over the awarding of a large contract for Ontario Place to a company with strong PC connections, even though the contract will cost taxpayers more, and despite the objections of staff, one of whom (Max Beck) was sacked by the government.
05/21/99 Leith R.A. Coghlin Email:
G. Bell's profession surely is not politics! Arnott the incumbant is, despite Bell's ludicrous statement, very well known. He has served as a Parliamentary Assistant and he is in a very Tory riding. I cannot agree at all with Bell's statement that the townships of Woolwich, Wellesley and Wilmot vote Liberal. Wilmot township voted heavily Tory in 1995 as well as in 1990 and during the Tory collapse in 1987. The riding is very awkward geographically, and believe me Arnott has outsigned and out canvassed his opposition hands-down. Waterloo-Wellington will go to Ted Arnott once again, and I mean 50+ percent.
05/23/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
I agree with Mr. Coghlin on one point: Tory appears to be the destiny for W-W. (Starting with Witmer in '90, Waterloo's Tories decisively "stole" the Mennonites as well as other remnants of Nixon-Peterson Liberalism in the 90s.) But here's my Wilmot calculations for 1987 and 1990 respectively:
1987: Lib 61.08, NDP 19.87, PC 19.05
1990: Lib 31.06, NDP 37.95, PC 24.85, FCP 6.15
"Heavily Tory" in those elections, my foot.
05/24/99 lrs Email:
Drove through the Kitchener part of riding- not much activity from all parties-with Lib and Pc candidates from the northern or rural part of riding I assume the Kitchener portion will go mainly according to provincial trends with a Liberal at least coming close second but rural voters from all provincial polls seem to be going Tory and thus the seat should remain Tory
06/01/99 RS Email: Akden_McEachern@haltonbe.on.ca
First of all my son, who is learning different, is presently entrolled in the USA because there are no schools in Wellington that have a special education program(s) for this type of student - they were cancelled by the Conservative Government. Ted,my second cousin, has refused over and over again to anwswer my queries regarding the reimplimentaiton of the special education program(s) in this area. The only reply that I have received from him is that of the party line. Why? So, far I have been working against him and will continue to do so until he is removed from office and gets a "real" job. The Liberal Party is at least willing to listen to my concerns.

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Last Updated 1st June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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