Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-17 23:42:03

Constituency Profile


Bernardo, Beverly

Claveau, Maxime

Gaudet, Tommy

Lagacé Dowson, Anne

Lloyd, Chris

Macrisopoulos, Peter

Polifroni, Danny

Trudeau, Justin

Vadnais, Yvon

Waldron, Kim

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3560.78%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (190/207 polls, 92.13% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Justin Trudeau

   (8/207 polls, 4.31% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Thomas Mulcair

   (9/207 polls, 3.57% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Massimo Pacetti


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15 10 11 #ABC51
I'm afraid I'll have to back down on my previous TCTC prediction.
The Liberals just have too much momentum, both in Quebec and in the ROC, to lose here.
Easy hold for Trudeau.
15 10 03 seasaw
If today's pools stay the way they are, Trudeau will be the next PM. However, the election's over two weeks away and his lead's not big enough, so he might be the next leader of oppositon. Either way he'd have no problem winning this riding.
15 09 21 Kyle H
Here is why this riding should not be moved to TCTC, no matter what polls come out - if he was in danger of losing Trudeau and the Liberals would throw everything and more at this district to keep it secure.
The silly CROP poll aside, this race is going to be close, but it has been for a decade in Papineau; the riding is split down the middle with specific voting blocs (pun intended). The divisive nature of the modern riding is the key here, because I don't see Lagacé Dawson ever coming close to the level of popularity needed to overcome that kind of division; sure, we go on and on about the Bloc vote, but its hard to see JT not increasing his support here from 2011 NDP voters and non-voters (that Liberal bump has to come from somewhere), while the hard core of sovereigntists is not going to jump ship to an avowed federalist, not with Duceppe fighting to the bitter end as he is. Lagacé Dawson has to rely on soft and squishy nationalists and immigrant groups that voted for Barbot last time - its very hard to see those numbers falling in her favour more than maybe splitting evenly towards Trudeau and non-voters. If they do seem to be, then this riding will be awash in Liberal volunteers from every corner imaginable - that would likely tip the balance back. So Liberal it stays, I say.
15 09 20 Monkey Cheese
Regarding my previous post: this article from the Huffington Post perfectly explains everything that's wrong with the NDP commissioned CROP poll:
A Liberal commissioned poll showing them 10 points ahead in Calgary Heritage would be just as dubious and so the NDP partisans shouldn't get too excited. There is a reason why the media doesn't take partisan polls seriously.
En ce qui concerne mon post précédent: cet article du Huffington Post explique parfaitement tout ce qui ne va pas avec le sondage CROP commandé NPD:
Un sondage commandé libéral leur montrant 10 points d'avance à Calgary patrimoine serait tout aussi douteuse et donc les partisans du NPD ne devrait pas être trop excité. Il ya une raison pourquoi les médias ne prennent pas au sérieux les sondages partisanes.
15 09 18 Marco Ricci
The NDP commissioned CROP poll looks like it was a trick. As commentators pointed out, it just happened to coincidentally be released a few hours before the Leader's Debate last night.
Its numbers and methodology have already been questioned by polling analysts Eric Grenier & Bryan Breguet, plus there is a new poll out by Mainstreet today showing Trudeau ahead by 5 points. (Grenier & Breguet have Trudeau ahead by a lot more in their own projections).
Links to Mainstreet Poll, plus analysis by Grenier & Breguet:
15 09 18 RD
In addition to the NDP-sponsored CROP poll an independent Mainstreet/Postmedia poll also shows Trudeau and Lagace-Dowson within the margin of error of each other.
While I expect Trudeau will still *probably* win it is certainly not inconceivable he won't. I think for now at least the riding should be TCTC.
15 09 18 Poll Predictor
The crop poll that a few posters are pointing out was commissioned by the NDP., enough said. The sample size is low and probably highlighted a bloc of a phone bank list of known NDP and former Bloc voters. 398.com has consistently had the Liberals and Mr.Trudeau leading in this riding for the likely outcome of 90% Liberal victory or better. Also, Mr. Trudeau is party leader and has a high profile. The NDP will get thoroughly trounced in this riding on Election Day. Liberals numbers in Quebec are going up particurlarly on the island of Montreal. The NDP prediction here is ludicrous.
15 09 19 R.O.
There was 2 polls released for this riding both showed somewhat different numbers however both did seem to indicate a close liberal/ndp race. As bloc was down to only 10% in each poll. And considering we have been seeing poll after poll showing an ndp lead in Quebec maybe it shouldn't of came as a surprise. I suspect Trudeau may be forced to spend more time in this riding to assure a victory over the ndp candidate as there is now an actual race here.
15 09 18 #ABC51
Two polls here. One showing Trudeau down by 11, the other showing him up by 5.
I still think Trudeau is the favourite, but it's not out of the question that BQ and even Tory supporters would be willing to vote NDP in this no hope riding just to knock out the poor little fuddle duddle .
15 09 18 JFBreton
New poll from Mainstreet/Postmedia. Trudeau has the support 33 per cent of voters compared with 28 per cent for New Democratic Party challenger Anne Lagacé Dowson. Source: http://montrealgazette.com/news/national/trudeau-has-narrow-lead-over-ndp-in-papineau-new-poll-suggests
15 09 18 Nick M.
I think the NDP is gonna do better In Quebec than the Election Prediction Project forecast. When I peak at some Quebec ridings chosen as Liberal, they look TCTC to me. On paper this riding will go NDP. The bloc vote will implode, more than it has in the past. But Trudeau is the leader, and that helps out.
Jack Layton insisted in 2004 to run in Toronto Danforth, even though it had a strong Liberal incumbent. He did win his seat, more than barely... But close. I do remember volunteers later telling me that some voters aren't pro NDP, but are voting NDP because the leader deserves to represent the party in Parliament.
That is Trudeau's edge. Leaders bring a bump. The CROP poll, means that this riding is competitive.
15 09 19 Nick M.
Although I think Trudeau is gonna squeak a victory here. We now have two polls that say this riding is competitive, and therefore TCTC is a fair assessment. I do believe that if Trudeau wasn't the leader of a major party, this riding is an easy NDP pickup, but until the smoke clears this is a TCTC.
15 09 17 MTC
CROP poll for the riding puts NDP at 46% and Liberals at 35$, with a 5% margin of error.
This one is too close to call, and the NDP has the edge.
15 09 18 jawnbc
CROP poll in Papineau has Trudeau 11 points back from Lagacé-Dowson, though it's an NDP commissioned poll. Bloc vote has collapsed even further. Would be rather striking if the Grits manage to win a plurality of seats across Canada, but their leader loses his.
Stranger things have happened.
15 09 17 Geoff de Guère
I'm sure you've all seen http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/trudeau-in-trouble-in-papineau-riding-poll-1.2568576 by now.
Now I know that internal polls are always suspect, and I note that the sample size is pretty small; even so, the 11% lead is more than double the given margin of error. But what really sells this poll to me is the fact that the Liberal and Conservative numbers are more-or-less unchanged from the 2011 election; the only significant motion is from Bloc to NDP---which makes sense in this particular riding, and is at least compatible with province-wide trends. Even if this poll has exaggerated motion from the Bloc to NDP by a factor of two, that would still put Lagacé-Dowson in a statistical tie with Trudeau.
15 09 17 Author
I don't know. The NDP is polling extremely well and ex-Bloc votes could tip this NDP. it's improbable but far from impossible for Trudeau to lose his seat.
15 09 18 Monkey Cheese
Before anyone gets too jumpy with that CROP riding poll, keep in mind that it had a very high margin of error and a very low sample size. It was also commissioned by the NDP. Quite frankly a party-commissioned poll that has them with a ten point lead over the incumbent reeks of desperation. I don't think Trudeau should worry about it. All four leaders will still win their seats.
Avant que quelqu'un ne devienne trop saccadée avec cette 'CROP' circonscription sondage, garder à l'esprit qu'il avait une marge d'erreur très élevé et une taille très faible de l'échantillon. Il a également été commandée par le NPD. Franchement un sondage commandé par le parti qui les a avec une avance de dix points sur le titulaire des relents de désespoir. Je ne pense pas Trudeau devrait inquiéter à ce sujet. Tous les quatre dirigeants seront encore gagner leurs sièges.
15 09 04 Laurence Putnam
If I seriously thought the NDP could threaten here, I would drop everything I'm doing to fly to Montreal and campaign for the NDP despite the fact that I would never myself vote for the NDP. Such would be the temptation at the prospect of a Trudeau defeat. Unfortunately, I find it highly unlikely that Justin loses his own seat, although I don't think it will be a particularly good night for Liberals in Quebec either way. The NDP will benefit from some of the Bloc vote, but the BQ vote won't disappear altogether, and as previous posters have mentioned Trudeau is likely looking at shoring his support up to at least the mid-40's range anyway. NDP can't catch him here.
15 09 02 Tony
I thought Trudeau would lose in 2008 he never, now that he is a party leader and has done a good job this election I think he'll hold onto his seat once again.
15 09 02 Marco Ricci
I agree that Dowson shouldn't be called a 'sacrificial lamb'. She has the potential to be competitive (although when she ran in Westmount in 2008 Garneau won by a 2-1 margin). Ironically, she might have won Westmount had she remained the candidate in 2011 since that was the year Garneau nearly lost.
As for this riding, I think the NDP is hoping that the decrease in BQ support will put them over the top, and it is true that BQ support is down in Quebec (as is Conservative support). BUT Liberal support is up from 2011, and a new Mainstreet/PostMedia poll of Montreal today actually shows the Liberals nearly tied with NDP in the city. It shows NDP holding onto their 2011 support, with BQ & CPC down, but with Liberals up 10 points:
'NDP in virtual tie with Liberals on Montreal Island, Conservatives, Bloc slipping: poll'
This riding has been close in the past several elections, and could be again, but it's also possible that the Liberals will go back to their pre-2004 50% level in this riding (which is what 308 currently shows).
15 08 31 A.S.
Yeah, don't call ALD a 'sacrificial lamb'; her ballyhooed 2008 Westmount run proves that she's anything but. And while overeager Dippers like to make a big deal out of Justin's 'vulnerability' because of 2011 numbers (while conveniently ignoring that he actually outperformed virtually every other fed Liberal in Quebec relative to 2008, i.e. with a machine like his, watch out), let's face the fact that they have a point--this is a seat which would have been a relatively easy 2011 NDP pickup were Justin *not* the Liberal candidate (or barring that, if Vivien Barbot were *not* the Bloc candidate). As opposed to, say, Eglinton-Lawrence, which would be an absolute NDP black hole were Andrew Thomson not their candidate (and some would say it still remains so behind Thomson's Potemkin front)
15 08 28 Marco Ricci
The president of the Papineau NDP riding association has stepped down in protest over the way the NDP parachuted star candidate Lagacé Dowson into the riding over the wishes of local members:
Gaël Chantrel released a statement (en français) to the members of the NPD on Huffington Post Québec as to why he quit as Papineau NPD president:
15 08 26 Marco Ricci
Anne Lagace Dowson is certainly a much higher-profile candidate than the NDP were expected to field here. She probably is better-known to voters in Montréal through her broadcasting career than previous NDP candidate Beatrice Zako.
However, although the NDP do have a big lead in the polls in Québec, the Liberals are in 2nd place and are ahead of where they finished in 2011, plus Eric Grenier's seat projection model shows this with a 95% chance of going Liberal (August 25, 2015):
Lagace Dowson has certainly attracted media attention to her campaign and was trending on Twitter in Montréal on Sunday night. But it's interesting to note that she is being acclaimed and didn't fight a contested nomination. She may be considered to be parachuting in at the last minute.
There are also only 2 months to go before the election. It may be challenging for her to develop connections to all the multicultural communities in the riding in the short time left. When Justin Trudeau & Vivian Barbot campaigned against each other, they started a year or two in advance!
Now that this riding has a high-profile race again, perhaps this will be one of the ridings to get polled this Fall and we will see some riding numbers next month. Until we get riding numbers which contradict the current projections, this riding is leaning Liberal.
15 08 26 Monkey Cheese
I don't think it matters what sacrificial lamb the NDP throw at Trudeau. He is not only the incumbent, but also the party leader and a potential Prime Minister. 308 has Trudeau's chances of winning at 95% (as of August 26). That is more than what Mulcair has in his own riding. I will also predict that all four of the main party leaders, Harper, Mulcair, Trudeau, and May, all win their seats.
Je ne pense pas que cela importe ce que l'agneau sacrificiel NPD jeter à Trudeau. Il est non seulement le titulaire, mais aussi le chef du parti et premier ministre potentiel. 308 a des chances de Trudeau de gagner à 95% (au 26 Août). Cela est plus que ce que Mulcair a dans sa propre circonscription. Je vais aussi prédire que tous les quatre des principaux dirigeants du parti, Stephen Harper, Mulcair, Trudeau, et en May, tous gagnent leurs sièges.
15 08 23 Mr. Dave
Hang on to your hats!
It has been announced that Anne Lagace Dowson is going to be the NDP candidate in Papineau. This puts a whole new spin on things.
Having run previously as the NDP candidate in the neighbouring riding of Westmount-Ville Marie in 2008, she will bring a credibility to the NDP that may have been lacking with their previous candidate.
That plus the fact that the latest C.R.O.P. poll puts the NDP far in front with 47% voter support in Quebec compared to just 20% for the Liberals.
The campaign for this riding just got a great deal more interesting.
15 08 10 Marco Ricci
It's possible Justin Trudeau could get 50%, but 60% is probably too high. When the Liberals were led by Jéan Chrétien, they used to get between 50-55% here before Pierre Pettigrew went down.
Some commentators have said that Justin Trudeau may get a boost in support from his strong performance in the Leader's Debate, but we will have to wait & see whether his Québec polls go up.
The NDP has been without a candidate for a month since Beatrice Zako resigned. The new NDP candidate will probably not be selected until September, so it's hard to know how well the NDP will do here until the new choice is named. Right now the only candidates running against Justin Trudeau are the BQ & the Greens. (The Conservatives haven't selected their replacement candidate yet, either).
15 08 04 seasaw
Justin Trudeau's been under fire, and the latest polls show that his party's in third place. With elections being more than a couple of months away, and with his impressive start in the campaign, he'll have no trouble winning here. If he continues to be impressive in the campaign, he might even get close to 60% here.
15 08 03 John
Trudeau is the Liberal leader, and that is going to get him a lot of exposure in the media. Everything from interviews to participation in leader debates to Conservative attack ads.
Trudeau would have to put both size 16s in his mouth at exactly the wrong point in the campaign to lose this seat. And I don't see him doing that.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
I don't think JT will get to 50% here as some have suggested. He'll likely win, unless he has an absolute disaster of a camapign.
15 07 20 Marco Ricci
NDP Candidate Béatrice Zako Resigns Following Revelation Of Past Comments On Quebec Separatism
15 07 16 Dr Bear
Liberal numbers may be going soft in many places, but in their (former?) Montreal strongholds they're holding steady. It's silly to think the NDP will take Papineau with Liberal's Quebec support around twice what they had in 2011. Easy Liberal hold.
15 07 15 Stevo
Justin is so beatable here. Do I think he actually WILL be beaten? No, hence the Liberal prediction. But by no means can he take his own seat for granted. Kudos to him for selecting a non-safe seat upon entering politics when he could have had his pick of any of the perma-zombie-Liberal ridings in west Montreal.
15 05 30
ABC51, your kidding right, that's laughable. C-51 is not an issue here or anywhere Yes, he may lose some votes but not enough to even register. This is a possible next Prime Minister of Canada. He will win his riding with ease.
15 05 17 #ABC51
With Trudeau and his caucus committing electoral suicide among Liberal and left-leaning voters with their support for Bill C51 and no competent left-leaning BQ leader to divide the progressive vote, look for a surprise NDP pick up here in October unless Trudeau and his inner circle wake up and change course.
15 04 23 Marco Ricci
Brian A's post is somewhat puzzling. While it's always possible that Justin Trudeau could lose, there's no evidence of him being at risk yet, or of any major NDP campaign taking place. The NDP only just got its candidate nominated. And although several candidates did run for the NDP nomination, Pundit's Guide reported the nomination meeting had less than 100 voters. The NDP still has the potential to be competitive here, but there doesn't appear to be that much NDP momentum so far.
Béatrice Zako, the new NDP nominee, will be a solid candidate. She has some campaign experience from the 2013 Montréal Municipal election where she ran in Villeray?Saint-Michel?Parc-Extension, (however she finished 4th to incumbent Borough mayor Anie Samson).
As I posted earlier, Polling analyst Eric Grenier did a mathematical analysis of the 2011 election which showed that of all the MP's in Canada, Justin Trudeau was best at resisting the provincial trends against his party.
So advantage to Trudeau until we see evidence otherwise.
15 04 05 Brian A
I'm not willing to say yet that Justin will lose his riding, but it's become wide-spread in NDP circles that the NDP's machine in Quebec is putting a lot of money and manpower into Papineau. Much more than you'd expect for a riding held by a party leader, and potentially the next PM. Perhaps they know something we don't? The riding is incredibly small (the smallest - by area - of any riding in Canada) and it borders Outremont - Tom Mulcair's seat that is seen as a lock for Tom - so it's quite likely that Tom and his team may decide to spend extra effort in pulling Papineau out from under Justin. How likely it'll be to succeed is a mystery, if that's indeed their plan, and even if the NDP does win Papineau and the Liberals form the next government, Justin will just make Garneau or Housefather step down and win a byelection in Westmount or his dad's old seat of Mount Royal. Again, I'm not prepared to predict an NDP victory here, but Trudeau is certainly the most vulnerable Liberal leader to losing his seat since Chretien kept squeaking by in Saint Maurice.
15 03 30 2015
Trudeau is probably the most vulnerable of the national leaders and he could be in trouble to the NDP if the Bloc tank this election and the Liberals drop in Quebec, both of which could easily happen especially if the Bloc don't run their former MP here. There is also a lot of uncertainty around his political positions that could potentially hurt him.
15 03 28 monkey
While not the safest Liberal riding by any stretch, Justin Trudeau is now leader and could very well be the next prime-minister so even if he doesn't win nationally, he should win this without too much trouble. The real question is whether he can crack the 50% mark or not.
15 03 26 Marco Ricci
It's certainly true that Justin Trudeau shouldn't take his riding for granted (no MP should). However, although it was a close race for Justin Trudeau in 2008, he won by 10 points in 2011. Part of that may have been because the BQ vote collapsed, but it showed that he held onto a core vote even in a bad election. Polling analyst Eric Grenier posted a mathematical analysis on his website showing that of all the MP's in Canada, Justin Trudeau was best at resisting the provincial trends against his party in 2011. Btw, while Mulcair is popular in Québec, Trudeau is also popular in some Québec demographics. For example, the Trudeau Liberals have a large lead on the Mulcair NDP among allophones/racial minorities. So in this area, Trudeau is probably more popular than Mulcair.
15 03 25 Noam Gold-Utting
Papineau has never been an easy win for Justin Trudeau. As much as he may be personally popular around the country he may just find it difficult to keep his own riding. He has moved out of the riding and spends most of his time in other communities, while this is true for all the leaders Justin Trudeau has never had the popularity here that other leaders have in their home ridings. In addition Tom Mulcair holds the seat of neighboring Outrement and is far more popular in the area than Trudeau. If the Bloc are willing to take a step back and not fight so hard for the seat then that along with Mr. Mulcair's coattails and the the fact that Trudeau won't be on the ground campaigning may just make this a race worth watching.
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
I'm predicting that every party leader holds their seat. Even this one.
If Papineau will vote for a guy who opposed the 'Quebec is a nation' thing and who continues to simultaneously support the Clarity Act while admitting that a Canada continuing in Harper's direction must be ditched... they'll keep voting for him. So this may be a demerit hold.
15 03 17 JFBreton
Victoire de Trudeau avec prime au chef, surtout si on assiste à une lutte nationale à trois. Lors des 2 dernières élections, les autres partis ont bien tenté, sans succès, de le déloger.

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