Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:47:39

Constituency Profile


Block, Cynthia Marie

Card, Claire

Harvey, Valerie

Schalm, Eric Matthew

Trost, Brad

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3100.88%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (103/162 polls, 68.75% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Brad Trost

   (59/162 polls, 31.25% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Maurice Vellacott


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15 10 19 HAS
This one may be tight but Block will pull enough away from the NDP to send Trost back to Ottawa. Conservative win.
15 10 15 Teddy Boragina
False alarm
To my great embarrassment when I went to double check on my math based projections, I found all my numbers for Saskatchewan were off, being skewed by Manitoba numbers.
As such, while this riding is still the 2nd most winnable Liberal riding in the province, it is not leaning Liberal at this time, in fact, it's leaning Tory.
15 10 12 Teddy Boragina
I had a 'wait, what' moment when my math told me the Liberals would win this riding based on current polls.
The 'problem' is not weakness in CPC numbers, or even Liberal strength, but the fact that the NDP has pulled back a few points in the region. If that continues, the Liberals will win this seat.
15 10 09 William
With today's Star Phoenix poll, it could very well be a sweep in Saskatoon.
15 09 28 A.S.
As long as the Cons are edging past a third in the polls nationally, we ought to restrain ourselves in assuming Saskatoon will go 3-for-3 Orange--even if Brad Trost's stances on anything from Pride to Planned Parenthood are a bit cringeworthy for someone bidding for a seat named 'University'.
15 09 25 R.O.
There was another riding poll released by environics for this riding . there results were 37 ndp , 37 cpc , 22 lib , 4 green . ndp are down from previous poll and riding remains a very close race. Its interesting cause Bradley Trost is only incumbent conservative mp running in city of Saskatoon this election.
15 09 13 Nick M.
Conservatives got 56 percent of the vote in 2011, this election they'll get low 40s in best and most likely case.
Applying that logic across the province, this one lands NDP.
15 08 20 Garth
Recent Environics riding-specific poll shows the NDP ahead of the Conservatives by 7%. Liberals a distant third.
15 08 21 Balon
According to mid-August Environs poll in this riding for Leadnow, NDP are leading comfortably for now: NDP 41%, CPC 34%, LPC 22%, Green 4%.
15 08 12 Craig Hubley
NDP call seems premature. 308 says Cons have 67% chance at this riding, and Denesthe is a far better prospect on the numbers for the NDP, so the national NDP organization may put more energy into the latter not this one.
A dedicated NDP push especially to inform habitual Liberal supporters that they are now in a Con v NDP riding could win this, but the NDP has serious inhibitions against actually asking people to vote effectively. Very sad.
This is one riding where a vote for Trudeau definitely helps elect Harper.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Considering that we now have less gerrymandered boundaries, the NDP should do well in this riding. Polling numbers currently indicate that they will pick this one up along with the other two Saskatoon ridings.
15 03 25 Mr. Dave
Now that the boundaries have been changed to get rid of the gerrymandered urban/rural ridings that gave the Conservatives an unfair advantage in the six Saskatoon and Regina ridings (excluding Wascana), the Cons have the potential to lose the five other seats.
Saskatoon University should be one that goes NDP this time.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
On paper, one riding where the NDP could pick up a seat. It all depends on whether the NDP have nominated a quality candidate and whether the Liberals split the vote. Will have to see how the election unfolds before making a call.

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