Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:50:57

Constituency Profile


Adamson, Dennis

Green, Arthur Alexander

Scott, Wyatt

Sidhu, Jati

Vis, Brad

Wismer, Elaine

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1530.45%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
   (66/182 polls, 41.42% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Randy Kamp

   (62/182 polls, 33.14% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Ed Fast

   Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
   (54/182 polls, 25.44% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Mark Strahl


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15 10 14 poljunkiebc
The Liberal surge here is likely to eat a bit into the NDP vote, though the overlap is not a lot in rural B.C., historically. The CPC should bleed a lot of votes here, but not quite enough to lose this riding. Expect them to retain about 40% of the vote and this riding which encompasses a bit of the valley and interior.
15 10 07 A.S.
An interestingly-composed seat, not least for the outside-or-not opportunity to see a part of Abbotsford represented by the NDP--it helps that the actual major urban centre is Mission, and the north bank of the Fraser (to say nothing of the canyon itself) has always been more 'moderate' and less absurdly Bible Belt Blue than the south bank. But of course, as per the BC pattern, the NDP-gain potential is more blunted than it might have seemed a month ago--though the lack of a Con incumbent helps...
15 09 12 NVcrash
The Fraser canyon is solidly NDP, it is the part of the Chilliwack riding that voted NDP. Also large parts of the north side of the Fraser river are NDP and not as Conservative as Abbotsford. This riding will be close but with the Cons being so down in the polls I see this as a possible NDP pick-up.
15 08 18 R.O.
This is a new riding and a mix of 3 nearby conservative ridings. There is also a new conservative candidate Brad Vis after Liv Grewal was dropped. This has been a mainly conservative area at federal level . although being an open riding might be more of a race than other years . ndp have some potential here but riding is not one they have been that close in past years . the race here is also somewhat unpredictable as it's a new riding that never existed before so harder to get a feel for but generally an area the cpc has done well in the past .
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Canadian Election Atlas is correct in stating that the NDP have been doing better in BC since 2011. The Conservatives have been dropping support in the province and that means ridings like this one are in contention. The NDP typically is the beneficiary of falling Conservative support in more rural ridings such as this one. That will help them win here.
15 07 06 Poll reviewer
308.com has this riding at 65% for the NDP as of July 6. The methodology does not necessarily predict individual ridings, but gives a good idea of regional trends.
Obviously too early to make a change of call, but this should be TCTC at this point.
15 07 06 Dr Bear
The BC interior has been one of the great sleeper regions for the NDP. Threehundredeight is currently calling this one for the NDP (40.7% vs 35.3% for the CPC).
15 06 04 Canadian Election Atlas
The Conservatives are polling much lower in BC than in the last election, so it stands to reason that seats like this one will be in play. Even the Liberals have a shot if they can take enough Conservative votes away. What makes this race even more competitive is its a new riding with no incumbent. Whenever the right wing part of the day sees a bad election result, the NDP has been able to win parts of this district provincially/federally. Also, the Liberals are seeing their best poll numbers in BC since the last Trudeaumania in 1968, the last time they won this district.
15 03 29 monkey
Mission and the Fraser Canyon portions could be quite competitive, but Matsqui like the rest of the south Fraser Valley is staunchly conservative thus killing any chance of an NDP win.
15 03 25 JC
This is a blue riding, doesn't matter if the Tories don't have a candidate here, they could run the devil himself here so long as he was blue and they'd win.

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