Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:29:42

Constituency Profile


Cormier, Serge

Kryszko, Robert

Savoie, Martine

Thériault, Daniel


Serge Cormier

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



5063.17 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Serge Cormier 2584550.70%
Jason Godin 2007939.40%
Riba Girouard-Riordon 38527.60%
Dominique Breau 11872.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (98.05% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Formerly a NDP stronghold they could make it a little interesting this time but given the candidate's late entrance to the election I think the Liberals hold on here.
13/10/19 Physastr Master
I played around with tooclosetocall.ca's election simulator with Nanos's latest numbers, which seem to match the DART poll's trends in atlantic canada: LPC 41, NDP 28, CPC 23. This is insane, by the way, this indicates NDP support in the maritimes has nearly doubled in the last week. I agree with a previous poster that this is kind of Madawaska-Restigouche-like without Yvon Godin, but not only did Jason Godin last election still perform respectably, but this remains the one place in New Brunswick where the NDP consistently performs respectably provincially, even in the absolutely catastropic 2018 election. Furthermore, plugging those Nanos numbers into that simulator leaves the NDP within 1 point in *Madawaska-Restigouche*, let alone Acadie-Bathurst. With the Nanos numbers, that simulator puts the NDP *17*(!) points ahead here. 338 hasn't had their NDP numbers dragged up to the high-20's yet, but they're still saying this is LPC-NDP competitive. TCTC.ca and Eric Grenier (I think) both have this flipping too. Regardless, there's no way the NDP wins 30% in Atlantic Canada and loses this. At the moment, the odds seem fairly solid that that will happen.
23/09/19 Riverdale Resident
Daniel Thériault named NDP candidate for Acadie-Bathurst - Jagmeet Singh and Yvon Godin at the announcement
07/09/19 The Jackal
With NDP having no candidate named as of now the problems they are having in Atlantic Canada. I would say the Liberals have this one in the bag.
03/09/19 Laurence Putnam
Given the lack of NDP candidate - never mind one who carries the Godin name - not to mention now sporting a leader who doesn't connect with Francophones in this riding the way Mulcair did - I would expect a Liberal win with 70% here is very possible. The NDP falling all the way to fourth place is a distinct possibility.
25/08/20 A.S.
Given reports of the NDP having no NB candidates in place 2 months before E-day, at this point I'd question whether even 2nd place is in the cards for the Dippers in Acadie-Bathurst, never mind 1st place.
04/08/20 Sam
Polling is now showing the Liberals to have broken ahead. A move into the Liberal column is now justified, but I maintain that had the NDP been doing a lot better, they could've won this, even without Yvon Godin.
14/06/19 seasaw
This was more of an Yvon Godin riding, not an NDP riding. Now the NDP has no one in the same caliber as Godin, the CPC is weak here, so it's safe to say Liberal hold.
05/06/19 Marco Ricci
With the NDP falling to 4th behind the Greens in the new CRA poll for Atlantic Canada, it may be difficult for them to make a comeback here unless they get a star candidate. Probably leaning Liberal for now.
05/04/19 Craig
Without Yves Godin, this will be a lot more like Madawaska-Restigouche or Beausejour. Francophone New Brunswick is naturally very deeply Liberal and the provincial seats here went overwhelmingly to the Liberals for the most part. There's no evidence that a Godin is running for this seat, which should open up the margin significantly for the Liberals. Serge Cormier may not be a big name but it won't matter.
The NDP support might be a bit higher here than elsewhere in the province but I can't see how they can overcome the natural return to red. This is also the worst Conservative riding, by far, in New Brunswick and Higgs is not popular here especially when tied to the PANB (who are despised here). Hence, easy Liberal hold.
06/03/19 Kyle H
A lot will depend on who the NDP candidate is, but it isn't another Godin then this should be considered a good Liberal lock. The days of Yvon holding out against the red and blue tides are gone, provincially this area swung towards the Liberals even as their support fell province-wide. The NDP need a strong candidate to win this, none have come forward and Jagmeet isn't Jack - he lacks the working-man persona that plays well in this more impoverished area.
02/03/19 Sam
This riding is going to be quite hard to predict as the Liberal losses in New Brunswick are only boosting the Conservatives. The NDP will obviously do better here than elsewhere but whether the Liberals fall enough to allow them to win remains to be seen. It does however appear that the Liberals have a slight edge.

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