Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:31:26

Constituency Profile


Aiken, Megan

Bragdon, Richard

Guay, Dominic

MacDonald, Kelsey

Miller, Rowan P.


TJ Harvey

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



14568.89 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

TJ Harvey 1790946.60%
Richard Bragdon 1422537.00%
Robert Kitchen 433411.30%
Terry Wishart 19595.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 70.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (96.1% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3.9% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
No Liberal incumbent here, a Conservative history means a return to the CPC fold for this riding.
27/09/19 JSn
All of SW NB goes Con or none of it does, imho.
The people are choosing past (Energy East pipe dreams, fake Tar Sands profits, war with natives) or the future.
Scheer & Higgs will be watching these results more closet than anyone and may well resign if SW NB rejects their Irving fantasy & native war.
25/09/19 R.O.
The only riding in New Brunswick without a liberal incumbent , riding has been a liberal/conservative swing riding for some time. It the cpc does better in NB its one that could go blue.
31/08/19 A.S.
Keep in mind that Andy Savoy was the sort who might not pass muster as a Liberal candidate under the Justin regime, which may explain how he held on against a united right in 2014 (also cf cases like Paul Steckle in Huron-Bruce). Still, the question remains: what of PPC? After all, not only is much of this CoR/PANB-friendly country, it was also the one place in the Maritimes where the Reform/Alliance actually seemed to be in contention for winning in 1997/2000. Even in an open-Liberal-seat situation, Bragdon could find himself thwarted--and *perhaps* there's something a bit ‘Beauceron’ about French fry country...
16/08/20 Local Observer
Not only is the riding currently Liberal, it was held by a Liberal from 2000-2006 as well. And parts of the riding are represented by Liberal MLAs. So this isn't necessarily easy conservative territory. The reputation and personality of the candidate carry considerable weight around here. Both Andy Savoy and Mike Allen were fairly popular personally. TJ Harvey has stayed out of the spotlight and people aren't talking much about him one way or another. Why on earth isn't the Liberal party nominating their candidate?
09/05/19 Dr. Bear
I agree with the other predictions that, with current numbers and lack of an incumbent, will likely flip Conservative. I disagree that this is a ‘safe’ Conservative seat, as some have suggested. While it leans conservative, it has swung back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives over the years. All depends which way the wind is blowing at the time.
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
Agree with the others, this is safe Conservative territory only lost through the big Liberal wave last time. This will revert back.
09/04/19 Sam
At the beginning of the year the Liberals had a chance, but with the large swings in New Brunswick, the Liberals can't retain an open, blue-leaning seat. There are three easy gains for the Conservatives in New Brunswick and this is one of them, with Richard Bragdon as an experienced family values candidate who will hold on to those right-wing, former Alliance voters and improve his vote share.
05/04/19 Craig
One of three seats that were close in 2015 and that should flip back blue. That said, the Liberals will likely hold up a bit better - even with no incumbent - as they tend to do fairly well in Victoria County and Grand Falls in most years. But that's only about 1/4 of the riding.
The rest of the riding is naturally conservative - after all, the People's Alliance had some of their best results here - which should be more than enough to overcome any deficits from the north. Re: the Fredericton suburbs, progressive strength doesn't penetrate far beyond city limits and the best Liberal/Green polls are in the Fredericton riding. I can't see how this doesn't flip with the Liberal lead greatly reduced in Atlantic Canada.
03/04/19 Right Honourable Adult
Another one that EP would do well to update sooner rather than later. This is ground zero of where the carbon tax is going to hurt the Liberals in the election -- already a fiscally challenged area which has fallen on hard times, and with a strong family values bend, it would take the CC having its own ‘culture of defeatism’ in order lose this riding.
31/03/19 Murphy
Expecting this riding to return to the Conservatives based on the current polling. Despite the Liberals 2015 sweep of Atlantic Canada, this riding was relatively close and only a 4,000 vote swap is needed for this riding to switch.
13/03/19 JP (election-atlas.ca)
The CPC candidate is a social conservative type, that may be enough to stop bleeding to the PPC. But it may also turn off other potential voters, especially since there are now more Fredericton suburbs in the riding than there were ~10 years ago.
The presence of Grand Falls in the riding means there's a higher Liberal floor than NBSW or Fundy-Royal, but it's still at least the 3rd most likely seat in NB to turn blue.
12/03/19 MF
One of the three most small-'c' conservative ridings in Atlantic Canada, so most likely a Conservative pickup.
10/03/19 Stevo
This was the Canadian Alliance's best Atlantic riding in 2000 (which caused it to go Liberal due to the vote split with the PCs). Weirdly, it then went Liberal in 2004 post-reunification of conservatives, so it's more unpredictable than the other rural NB seats. Unlikely the Liberals can hang on here given Junior's troubles but still TCTC for now.
06/03/19 Kyle H
This is an interesting riding. On paper, with no incumbent and a weak margin to begin with, it should go to the Conservatives... but I could see this being one of the few ridings where a solid PPC candidate makes a difference. The Francophone parts will probably stay Liberal while the areas that went for the People's Alliance provincially could take a look at Bernier's outfit with less skeptical eyes. If the PPC gets above 5% here and the race is close, it could very well stay Liberal.
05/03/19 Neal
This riding is a natural for the Conservatives and should easily return to the fold, and if it doesn't it will probably be a long election night for Team Blue, and a long 4 years ahead.
01/03/19 Sam
Another opportunity for the Conservatives in New Brunswick, this is an open seat that is one of the most marginal in New Brunswick. Although the Liberals have won it before that was due to a split in the right-wing vote, and this is reinforced by the relatively high Conservative vote share for a riding in the Maritimes. It would take a bigger swing than many other ridings but it's hard to see the Conservatives not making an effort here.

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