Barnabé, Éric
	Castonguay, Mathieu
	Côté, Rémi-Jocelyn
	Massé, Rémi
	Michaud, Kristina
	Morrison, James
	Tremblay, Natasha
Incumbent:
	Rémi Massé

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			71897 74547 38122 33093 14461.67 km² 5.0/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Rémi Massé	14378	39.50%
	Kédina Fleury-Samson	7641	21.00%
	Joël Charest	7340	20.20%
	Jean-François Fortin **	4229	11.60%
	André Savoie	2228	6.10%
	Sherri Springle	365	1.00%
	Éric Normand	175	0.50%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		4808	13.16%
		9726	26.63%
		8476	23.21%
		12599	34.50%
		918	2.51%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia    (79.55% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine    (20.45% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	17/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
Looking at riding and area history this is a Bloc history. Looking at the last election their former MP was running for another party. His totals plus the BQ total in 2015 would have meant a BQ win in 2015, in 2019 none of that exists and you get a BQ win.
	12/10/19	Physastr Master 72.182.105.136
This seems like a pretty obvious Bloc call given the current bloc surge. Similarly, Gaspesie-Les Iles-de-la-Madeleine should definitely be TCTC at this point
	09/10/19	J.F. Breton 207.253.54.66
Je mise pour un gain du Bloc dans cette circonscription de l'Est du Québec. 1) La remontée dans les sondages du Bloc qui se poursuit chez les francophones au Québec, plaçant même le parti au 1er rang. 2) La bonne performance de son chef lors des débats. 3) La présence au provincial de députés du Parti Québécois, dont son chef intérimaire, Pascal Bérubé. 4) Le tout confirmé par les récentes projections de http://canada.qc125.com et de https://www.tooclosetocall.ca.
	02/10/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
With polls showing the Bloc Quebecois doing better this year and this riding being one of there historical bloc seats. It also stayed PQ provincially by a huge margin and one of there safer seats provincially. With no former bloc mp running for a fringe party to split the vote and a weaker ndp. It might be the kind of riding that returns to the bloc this year.
	07/09/19	A.S. 99.225.32.21
The disconnect btw/ nearly-40% federal Liberal incumbency and not just Fortin's anomalous Bloc victory in '11 (though *that* heavily hinged upon a strong Lib candidate splitting the vote), but the fact that it's all provincially PQ and the bulk of it won last time by Pascal Bérubé with nearly *70%* of the vote, is enough to give one pause. Which is why I'd rather hold off from anything definite at this time.
	03/03/19	Sam 81.141.252.35
The Liberals came up the middle here last time and could win in the same way, with split opposition from the Bloc and NDP. The Bloc will probably take the votes won by Jean-Francois Fortin last time, but it would require all of them and half the NDP vote to oust the Liberals, which is unlikely to happen, even in the most PQ riding at the Quebec election in 2018. The Liberals have fortunate circumstances, which make them the unambiguous favourites here, but things could change.