Election Prediction Project

Cloverdale-Langley City
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:08:10

Constituency Profile


Aldag, John

Banwarie, Rae

Jansen, Tamara

Kennedy, Ian

Nutbrown, Caelum


John Aldag

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



59.47 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

John Aldag 2461745.50%
Dean Drysdale 1880034.80%
Rebecca Smith 846315.70%
Scott Anderson 21954.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5801.54%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
   (37.11% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (33.47% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Fleetwood-Port Kells
   (29.42% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

27/09/19 R.O.
This was a surprise liberal pick up in 2015, such a surprise no one on here even predicted liberal. but perhaps a tough one for the liberals to keep this year in a more naturally conservative area. the wild card is perhaps the People’s party and fact there running a former cpc mp here.
17/09/19 A.S.
This was a somewhat startling Lib pickup in '15--up to that time, this territory was presumed to be Fraser Valley Nuclear Conservative; said pickup was an emblem of the Justin-awakened eastward march of Greater Vancouver moderation. And the present CPC candidate's definitely a throwback to the bad old days...and the PPC candidate a throwback to a different kind of bad-old-days, which could work to mutual-cancellation purposes. The old days are still reflected provincially by this being mostly BCLib territory; but that's a big tent. (Hard to believe that *all* the Surrey ridings went federally Lib by at least 45%, whether in 2015 or by way of subsequent byelection.)
15/09/19 Walnut
This could go to either the Liberal or Conservative. This riding extends well into Surrey and contains the most urban parts of Langley. It is not staunchly conservative, though there is a devoted conservative segment of the population there. As illustrated in 2015, the national campaigns will have a significant impact here. There are enough moderates that would vote for either party and enough non-voters who could show up to make a difference.
On the local candidates, the Conservative Jansen is on the far right side of the conservative spectrum and isn't shy about it. This lets her win over base Conservatives, and the People's Party won't be a problem, but it's uninviting to others. She is contrasted to Aldag who comes off as thoughtful and serious. He clinched the 2015 election because he is very good interacting with people so it was easy for voters to opt for him, which made him out-perform the Liberals in BC by 10%. The NDP is running a good candidate and should do better than 2015 which may be to the detriment of Aldag. However, unless the Conservatives put on a much better national campaign, Aldag is the favourite here.
25/06/19 Marco Ricci
Former Conservative MP Gurmant Grewal (1997-2006) is now the candidate for the People's Party here. The boundaries are a little different than his former riding, but it will be interesting to see if he takes a few points away from the Conservative candidate.
10/05/19 Laurence Putnam
I could have been convinced that with the gradual gentrification of Langley that this would have a chance of staying in Liberal hands, but seeing how disastrously Liberals have performed in the last two BC by-elections, the dismal polling numbers and the simple fact that historically these ridings are very conservative anyway; I think a Tory candidate in BC sitting on a base of 35% from the last go-around, in a riding half an hour out of Vancouver has got to be feeling pretty good going into this campaign. A 5 point Liberal-Conservative swing is all that's needed here. Liberals practically have to run a perfect campaign to keep this...with national polling numbers hovering around 30% that seems doubtful to me.
03/03/19 Sam
John Aldag could be re-elected for the Liberals and it would be no surprise, but the Liberals have a lot to defend and it's easy to see this falling under the radar. The Conservatives may not have the edge in this but if they are doing well in BC, this is one of the ridings which will indicate that.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster