Cotter, Steven
	Fraser, Sean
	Frazer, Chris
	Henderson, Harvey
	MacDonald, Betsy
	Muir, Al
	Nikas, Katerina
	Smyth, Ryan
Incumbent:
	Sean Fraser

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			71962 74597 38651 31579 9307.83 km² 7.70/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Sean Fraser **	20718	46.60%
	George Canyon	13201	29.70%
	Betsy MacDonald	5806	13.10%
	Barry Randle	3478	7.80%
	Al Muir	938	2.10%
	Chris Frazer	180	0.40%
	Michael Slowik	149	0.30%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Sean Fraser	25909	58.50%
	Fred DeLorey	11418	25.80%
	Ross Landry	4532	10.20%
	David Hachey	1834	4.10%
	Alexander J. MacKenzie	570	1.30%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		21494	55.29%
		10422	26.81%
		5424	13.95%
		1481	3.81%
Other		57	0.15%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Central Nova    (87.54% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley    (7.18% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Sackville-Eastern Shore    (5.28% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	17/09/21	Sam 92.40.203.116
This one is probably gone for the CPC. On a uniform swing it wouldn't likely be enough anyway, but factoring in the local dynamics - a poor Conservative candidate who was selected at the last minute against an MP who is widely respected. That is if people have been paying attention of course - it's a far cry from the 2008 race here.
	05/09/21	Murphy 156.57.186.176
This riding has historically gone Conservative and would seem to be a potential flip. However, Fraser is popular locally and the Conservative candidate is currently dealing with controversy due to old social media posts. I predict that this stays Liberal but its a closer race than 2019.
	03/09/21	bluenoser 71.7.150.4
I think this one will be very close...but a good possibility for a Conservative pick up here.
	28/08/21	Marco Ricci 174.114.237.78
Yeah, it's August 27 now and the Conservatives still don't have a candidate in place for Central Nova. It's leading to some interesting speculation online as to what is happening. Liberal MP Sean Fraser seems to have done a good job of connecting with the voters in this riding and was probably looking at a comfortable re-election until now. With Liberal numbers not as high in the Maritimes as they were at the start of the campaign, this riding could be closer than in 2019.
	26/08/21	Outside Inside 174.115.111.66
Intuitively, this would be a prime pickup target for the CPC in Nova Scotia. But here we are, four days out from the nomination submission deadline, and the CPC still doesn't have a candidate. This sort of (dis)honour is normally reserved for seats where a party has no hope of winning, sticking some quasi-willing party staffer or local self-promoting opportunist on the ballot at the last minute to save face. The fact that Central Nova finds itself in this category doesn't bode well for CPC chances here, as it means one of two things: (i) the people on the ground have a sense that this riding is unwinnable for the CPC, or (ii) the party has been holding the seat open because they had someone with starpower on their wish list to run here, but have been unable to convince that person to run (having been involved in party candidate recruitment in a past life, many prospective star candidates are divas who will often only run with the assurance that they don't have to face a nomination battle). Of course, if George Canyon was their idea of 'starpower' in 2019, then maybe they're better off with a random party staffer or Donna the Real Estate Agent...
	25/08/21	C B 24.57.1.233
This riding is about as ‘Red Tory’ as it gets. The Conservatives and Erin O’Toole are definitely running a Red Tory campaign. We could argue the merits of that, no doubt. I suspect that if the Liberals slip any more this one could be in play.
	23/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
This had been the strongest area for the nova scotia pc’s in the provincial election largely cause it includes Tim Houson’s home riding in Pictou. Although its week 2 of the election campaign and federal conservatives still don’t have a candidate here according to anything I can find online. And not sure who there candidate might be ? but Betsy Macdonald has returned as the ndp candidate for the riding.
	20/08/21	Mr. Dave 71.7.149.143
Hang on to your hats! The provincial Liberals just got their clocks cleaned, and lost all five of the provincial ridings within Central Nova to the Conservatives in the provincial election. I'd put this one as T.C.T.C. right now.
	19/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Some were calling this for CPC in '19 due to ‘star candidate’ George Canyon, as well as on grounds of federal history and provincial patterns--instead, Sean Fraser finished w/the 2nd best Lib share in NS. Of course, when it comes to said ‘federal history and provincial patterns’, Peter MacKay winning the Conservative leadership would have made all the difference. *However*, in light of the provincial election, this being home turf for the provincial PC leader could *still* make a difference--then again, former Liberal Premier McNeil's provincial representation didn't prevent West Nova from being the only NS CPC pickup last time...
	03/08/21	J.F. Breton 38.23.227.9
Circonscription sûre pour les Libéraux en Atlantique. ہ moins d'un revirement majeur et soudain, victoire libérale aisée.