Long, Wayne
	McAllister, Ann
	Norton, Mel
	Paulin, Don
	Pereira, Nicholas
Incumbent:
	Wayne Long

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			79363 82074 38678 34899 391.02 km² 203.00/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Wayne Long **	15443	37.40%
	Rodney Weston	14006	34.00%
	Armand Cormier	5046	12.20%
	Ann McAllister	4165	10.10%
	Adam J. C. Salesse	1260	3.10%
	Stuart Jamieson	1183	2.90%
	Neville Barnett	150	0.40%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Wayne Long	20634	48.80%
	Rodney Weston **	12915	30.50%
	AJ Griffin	7411	17.50%
	Sharon Murphy	1321	3.10%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		17882	49.72%
		11052	30.73%
		5750	15.99%
		992	2.76%
Other		288	0.80%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Saint John    (99.86% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Fundy Royal    (0.14% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	18/09/21	Marco Ricci 174.114.237.78
O'Toole was in Saint John a couple of days ago for a campaign stop. This may indicate that internal polls still show a close Liberal vs. Conservative race.
	13/09/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
This riding has generally seen close races and seen as a swing riding federally between liberals and conservatives. Don’t think any other party has won here in recent memory. Wayne long was first elected here in 2015 and re elected in 2019. The new cpc candidate Mel Norton is also well known in the riding as he was Mayor of Saint John previously. Tough to say how much of a factor ndp or green candidates are this year. Not sure if any main party leaders have been to the riding yet be a surprise if they don’t campaign here but with covid been a tougher year to campaign in far away ridings like NB.
	11/09/21	George Knox 104.232.37.120
Mainstreet has a healthy liberal lead. https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/SaintJohnRothesay-iPolitics-02September2021.pdf
	07/09/21	Chaz 47.55.179.11
Saint John has a strong history of voting for the person more than the party. (i.e. Zed vs. Wallace in 2005) Given Norton's fairly well received term as Mayor, this is going to be a close one. It will all depend on the Milligeville and Rothesay voter turnout rates. I think Wayne will take it but barely.
	25/08/21	C B 24.57.1.233
I think bottom line here is that if Fredericton goes Conservative, Saint John will too. If the Liberals drop any more in the polls...
	19/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
If the mayoral strategy worked w/Elsie Wayne, why not w/Mel Norton? Though besides Norton being more presently removed from the mayoralty than Elsie was, Saint John's more of a ‘generic voting pattern’ place than it was in Elsie's time--that is, ‘urban = Liberal’ is more of a default than it used to be, and not just something induced through Conservative collapse. Or, Saint John as a rare CPC pickup in a CPC-unfavourable election would be perfectly in the Elsie spirit--but if it *didn't* happen, it'd be proof that those days are over...
	18/08/21	Outside Inside 198.103.208.3
Politically, Mel Norton is kind of a nothing-burger (a one-term mayor who hasn't held public office in 5 years) but he retains a fair amount of personal popularity in Saint John, perhaps owing to his almost-successful run at the provincial PC leadership in 2018 (after which he promptly disappeared from the public eye until... right now). Justin Trudeau isn't popular here at all, but incumbent Wayne Long has successfully cultivated some sort of mavericky 'riding first' persona (whether warranted or not) that could help him weather another election, though that only barely worked last time. Unsure of how this might unfold.
	12/08/21	Dr Bear 71.7.146.143
Absolutely one to watch! I honestly think this could be one of the few CPC pick ups this election. It will be very close though. Going to keep an eye on this seat.
	09/08/21	KS 174.113.137.67
This is going to be a close one. Both the Conservative candidate (Mel Norton) and Liberal incumbent (Wayne Long) are well liked. I'm going to say the Conservatives are going to win, but it's going to be a nail biter.
	05/08/21	Stevo 164.177.56.217
Wayne Long is a popular and independent-minded MP. In spite of the close result in 2019 I expect him to win again.
	06/06/21	J.F. Breton 38.23.227.9
Lutte intéressante à prévoir dans cette région conservatrice du sud-ouest du Nouveau-Brunswick où les Libéraux ont réussi, en 2019, à arracher cette circonscription. La lutte risque d'être tout aussi serrée cette fois-ci.