Baker, Wayne
	Knight, Brendan
	Kruchkywich, Kevin
	Nater, John
Incumbent:
	John Nater

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			107908 104912 43512 41783 3580.29 km² 30.10/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	John Nater **	25622	46.30%
	Pirie Mitchell	15002	27.10%
	Geoff Krauter	8094	14.60%
	Collan Simmons	4949	9.00%
	Roger Fuhr	894	1.60%
	Irma DeVries	733	1.30%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	John Nater	22255	42.90%
	Stephen McCotter	19480	37.60%
	Ethan Rabidoux	7756	15.00%
	Nicole Ramsdale	1347	2.60%
	Irma DeVries	794	1.50%
	Roger Fuhr	219	0.40%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		25281	54.48%
		9861	21.25%
		8341	17.98%
		2112	4.55%
Other		806	1.74%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Perth-Wellington    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Randy Pettapiece *	23736	50.67%
	Michael O'Brien	14385	30.71%
	Brendan Knight	5062	10.81%
	Lisa Olsen	2746	5.86%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		13585	33.10%
		15992	38.96%
		7764	18.91%
		2005	4.88%
Other		1702	4.15%

	19/09/21	Ed Ferrar 70.30.109.156
This is a riding where the Liberals could squeak out a win. There are a lot of PPC signs, especially in the rural south & north of the riding where Nater and the Conservatives get most of their support. If the polls are to be believed they could peel off 5,000 plus votes. On the other side, there is no Green candidate running here, and the local Liberal candidate has an environmental background and has been the only candidate talking about it as an issue. If the Liberals can pick up a good chunk of those green voters, and the PPC takes a chunk of Tory vote, all of a sudden a 9,000 vote margin shrinks to less than 1,000. Mix in O'Toole's falling poll numbers, stranger things have happened.
	24/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
John Nater was first elected in 2015 in this largely rural, long time conservative riding and would expect that to continue.
	25/05/21	seasaw 99.225.229.135
This is another riding that some believed would be competitive, and for a good reason, it was fairly competitive in 2015,but John Nater was elected by 10,000 votes, he's likely going to win by a similar margin this time.
	08/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
The difference btw/2015 and 2019: in '15, the Libs swept Stratford. In '19, Stratford was peppered with spots of blue and even NDP orange. (It still went Liberal...but other than a couple of polls in St. Marys, nothing else did. This most internally polarized of ridings never fails.)