Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Toronto Centre


Prediction Changed
2022-05-27 18:39:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Byard, Ivan

Goddard, Jess

Hoehlmann, Steve

Morris, David

Shaw, Ron

Snell, Jennifer

Ward, Nicki

Wong-Tam, Kristyn


Incumbent:
Suze Morrison

Population (2016):

103805
Population (2011):93971


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

SUZE MORRISON
23,68853.66%
DAVID MORRIS
11,98627.15%
MEREDITH CARTWRIGHT
6,23414.12%
ADAM SOMMERFELD
1,3773.12%
JUDI FALARDEAU
3710.84%
DAN KING
1170.27%
CAMERON JAMES
1100.25%
THERESA SNELL
1020.23%
KEVIN CLARKE
980.22%
WANDA MARIE FOUNTAIN
650.15%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

20,733 60.48%
4,177 12.18%
6,685 19.50%
1,623 4.73%
OTHERS 1,065 3.11%
Total Transposed 34,282
      Component Riding(s)

Toronto Centre
(99.86% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Trinity-Spadina
(0.14% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Bill Morneau **
31,27157.40%
Brian Chang
12,14222.30%
Ryan Lester
6,61312.10%
Annamie Paul
3,8527.10%
Rob Lewin
1820.30%
Sean Carson
1470.30%
Jason Tavares
1260.20%
Bronwyn Cragg
1250.20%
Philip Fernandez
540.10%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Bill Morneau
29,29757.90%
Linda McQuaig
13,46726.60%
Julian Di Battista
6,16712.20%
Colin Biggin
1,3152.60%
Jordan Stone
1470.30%
Mariam Ahmad
1330.30%
Philip Fernandez
760.20%


 

01/06/2022 Projector416
69.46.127.6
I live here. 338 projects a close race but a NDP win here and I think they're right. The Liberal vote will recover from last time. But if you simply (as 338 does) take provincial voting averages and apply them to this riding, the NDP still squeak out a win. Add to this that the NDP candidate is a well known and liked local Councillor, I think this results in an NDP hold. Liberal candidate seems nice but I don't think he carries any support above the coat tails that the provincial OLP campaign provides. Krystyn Wong Tam, MPP is my prediction.
30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
Another seat to watch as the riding has a strong Liberal history but the NDP candidate is a possible leadership candidate for the NDP according to some posters here. Given that and her being a Toronto city councillor previously I'm going to give the win here to the NDP.
30/05/2022 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Obviously saw the forum poll as I posted some of there results for other ridings to the site. Still not sure about this one. Toronto Centre has largely been a provincial liberal riding in recent years, although the ndp win here in 2018 was by a significant margin. Hard to believe they could lose that much of there vote with an even better candidate as Suze Morrison wasnt well known last election but Kristyn Wong Tam is a high profile city councillor for the area. but it had been a tough riding for the ndp prior to 2018 also never been a good riding for the pcs either, there candidate is Jessica Goddard who has barely got any attention here. would of obviously been an easy win for liberals had the ndp ran an average candidate just not sure Kristyn Wong-tam will go down that easily. Which is why I wonder if it will be closer than the forum numbers suggest .
30/05/2022 Danny
67.71.31.208
My sense in Toronto is that the air has come out of the Liberal campaign now that it's evident the PCs are heading toward easy re-election. The Liberals have a lot of ground to make up and I really don't think Morris has the juice to do it against a very popular councillor. Once again I think you've made the wrong call like you did in 2018.
28/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
23.248.145.246
So, Forum did a riding poll here which showed a 10 point Liberal lead in Toronto Centre. I would have thought the NDP would do better with a star candidate, but I guess it's just that hard to defeat the Liberals on their home turf.
28/05/2022 Jimmy
70.49.216.94
Election Prediction Project calling this one for the Libs is way off the mark. The latest polling from ipolitics shows the NDP at 45.3% and OLP at 28.8% (almost a 20% lead). To add to this the NDP candidate is the popular city councilor for the riding and the Liberal candidate is an unknown.
26/05/2022 SuburbanDad
37.19.213.244
Generally not a fan of giving the party in need of a huge swing in votes the nod and even though support for Del Duca is soft, but I think the Liberals will gain this seat. OLP is going to gain seats and this one should go to them.
19/05/2022 South Islander
184.71.12.34
In the 2011 federal election, TO went CPC/LPC/NDP 40/32/24. Had the current Toronto Centre boundaries existed in 2011, the LPC would have carried it by 3% while beating the NDP for 2nd place in Toronto by 8%. All else equal, the NDP likely needs to be within 5% of the Liberals in TO (give or take) to win Toronto Centre.
Since the last provincial election, Toronto Centre has had 3 elections for parliament (incl. the 2020 byelection), and the LPC finished ahead of the NDP by 24-35% each time. This is a naturally Liberal seat.
Current Polling in TO: OLP/OPC/NDP
Mainstreet: 41/25/25
Innovative: 39/30/20
Leger/Earnscliffe: 38/35/21
Abacus: 41/32/21
OLP Lead over NDP in TO: 16-20%
The NDP likely cannot hold this seat. Toronto is clearly breaking for the OLP. With 2 weeks left to go, there is nothing to suggest the NDP has blunted (let alone reversed) the OLP's momentum. And in Toronto Centre, the NDP are fighting voter muscle memory trying to hold this open seat. Even though KMT was the municipal incumbent before her resignation, it won't allow her to overcome the Liberal partisan advantage. In elections for the non-partisan City council, people vote for the person and/or ideology; in provincial and federal politics, most people vote for the party rather than the candidate.
18/05/2022 CD
66.234.34.46
Barring a major change in the dimensions of this campaign, all signs point to Liberal strength in the 416. This riding goes back to the Grits.
15/05/2022 Speedy
174.88.37.98
There are more than enough fringe candidates in this riding which is in flux because of KWT coming in to save the NDP after Suze had to step aside. The Convervative vote is fractured beyond hope, leaving only the Liberals and NDP with a chance of winning this seat. A former local councillor has connections and party working in their favour and the Liberals have a well organized team. This riding is going to be interesting. If KWT does win, I'd expect a party leadership run to replace Horvath.
10/05/2022 PY
99.230.134.135
MGK: let's not forget that candidate departures and nominations (whether contested or not) can also be contentious events. Although these examples are federal, the ones I immediately recall are the aftermath of Chuck Cadman losing the CPC nomination (and his subsequent victory an independent) and the changeover from Jody Wilson-Raybould to Taleeb Noormohamed as the Liberal candidate during the 2019 election in Vancouver Granville (some EDA members, including those on the board at the time, were said to have left for her campaign). I'll be charitable and take your word that a) KWT's acclamation was accepted without question and b) the EDA as a whole is holding firm. My sense of things was that those who worked with Suze Morrison were simply going to make way for KWT and whoever she'd be bringing in, with minor losses of operational and grassroots support...that wouldn't be unusual at all.
Just as Ryerson will sport a rather generic name (Toronto Metropolitan University), the riding continues to become more of an amorphous blob, especially as the redevelopment of Regent Park will enter its fourth and fifth phases soon.
Anyway, do I think either KWT or David Morris win by a landslide? Likely not.
07/05/2022 JW
45.41.168.91
Am a gay village dweller working in the financial district (walk to work most days), with friends in similar circumstances, so can only make observations about the part of the riding that is between Yonge and Jarvis, or south of Queen.
Wong-Tam's crew plastered signs in the gay village on day 1, mostly at non-voting locations (empty lots waiting for development... I guess given her record as councillor, it would not surprise anyone that developers are all supporting her...) and illegal locations (city property, BIA planters, community bulletin boards), especially around her opponent's office. But beyond that, have not really seen much action from her campaign. I felt like she had more signs during her municipal run than what we are seeing. Chatting with friends at various buildings in the riding (they are mostly in the gay village and the new condos between King and Queen), no one has receive any sort of visit or flyers from her. This is all pretty surprising given her suppose big team from her municipal run.
Morris team is certainly more visible, have a handful of signs in the co-op buildings (traditional NDP territory) and on private homes around Ryerson, and most of my friends who live in the village have gotten at least one piece of flyers from him.
04/05/2022 MGK
206.172.18.194
PY, I don't understand what you're thinking. You suggest that loyalty to Suze Morrison would be demonstrated by not supporting Kristyn Wong-Tam -- Do you know anything to suggest that Morrison or her supporters would not want Wong-Tam at Queens Park, or would not want the riding to remain orange? I haven't seen anything to suggest that Morrison is anything less than a strong supporter of Wong-Tam, and vice versa. There's no sign of any factional split in the riding association that I am aware of (and I am a member). Morrison was acclaimed without opposition as the candidate last year, and Wong-Tam was acclaimed without opposition as the candidate last month after Morrison withdrew. Nothing that points to them representing rival factions within the party -- quite the contrary, there was a large overlap between their respective campaign volunteer corps in 2018, and everyone I've talked to about the campaign is really excited to have a candidate of Kristyn Wong-Tam's calibre -- some of them might have preferred to be working to re-elect Suze Morrison, but they surely aren't going to hold her medical issues against KWT or against the party! Oh, and since you mention Morrison's constituency staff -- I saw at least one of them making the rounds at Kristyn Wong-Tam's campaign launch party, signing up all the volunteers she could. Morrison supporters are Wong-Tam supporters, and I can't imagine anything that would suggest otherwise. The NDP does have some real challenges -- a strong Liberal organization in the riding, and if polls suggest the Liberals have reemerged as the strongest challenge to the PCs, then the tendency of too many downtown progressives to follow the provincial trends with a faux-strategic vote - but a disunited activist base is not one of them.
29/04/2022 PY
99.230.134.135
While she's a great name on paper, KWT did have to apologize for her infamous letter to the Sun regarding COVID and the subsequent tweets she made. That likely won't sit well with those constituents who are inclined to factor in the pandemic while at the ballot box.
Secondly, there seem to be some serious caucus management issues for Andrea Horwath (which have been mentioned at length in various media outlets and I won't get into here) lately that haven't spilled over into the overall ONDP campaign...yet. I can't help thinking that KWT's candidacy is a way to hedge their bets, so to speak...and this could possibly extend into the eventual leadership race.
Third of all, unless 'Here' is actually well acquainted with the ONDP campaign on the ground, one cannot assume those who worked in Suze Morrison's constituency office will continue to play an active role at this point, if at all. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if they either remain loyal to her and stay away altogether from the race or just go their separate ways (whether to different ridings, any of the upcoming municipal campaigns or to seek non-political employment). I don't presume to know what the overall sentiment of the EDA is at this point with KWT as the candidate.
Now if I were to tell you twenty years ago that some of the best croissants and ice cream could be found in Regent Park or that the Distillery District would eventually exist in its current form, you'd think I was crazy. With each passing year, the complexion of the riding continues to change and the ONDP mustn't allow itself to be complacent here, even as they've just released their platform.
TCTC it is!
28/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Prior to this month, I thought returning Liberal candidate David Morris picking up this seat was a near sure thing, whether Suze Morrison ran or not, was close to a sure thing. Unlucky for him, Morrison has been replaced on the ballot by popular councillor Kristyn Wong-Tam. She has a strong enough personal brand that I believe she'll hold on.
18/04/22 seasaw
69.157.0.235
When you ask the members of the Liberal party, some believe that they’ll win a majority, though possible, however, not too probable, some believe that they’ll form the government, again same likelihood as before. Others believe that they’ll be the official opposition, a much more likely scenario, while they are those who believe that they’ll be a recognized party again and that is the most likely to happen. On any one of these scenarios, this riding is a must win for them. They can lose Don Valley West and Scarborough Guildwood, but if they win this along with Eglinton-Lawrence, St. Paul’s, York Centre and York South Weston and Scarborough Centre and Southwest, they’ll be up 4 from last election and that’s what they need to get back in the game. So, they can’t afford to lose this seat. Now Krysten Wong-Tam is a formidable opponent, she’s a great councillor, but I don’t think it’ll be enough for her to win this seat. Remember, popular city councillors don’t always win when they run provincially or federally.
14/04/22 Here
72.39.155.140
Toronto Centre just freed up a lot of resources. This will be a fight but the NDP have an edge. Never underestimate the power of a good constituency office, solid organization this will not be close this time either.
09/04/22 Colin
99.240.30.239
As the previous submission wrote,unless the NDP pick a star candidate like Krysten Wong-Tam. This riding is as likely to go Liberal now as Will Smith is likely to host the Oscars.
09/04/22
69.165.143.166
The NDP now have a star candidate straight from Toronto City Council and will this riding
09/04/22 John G
64.118.23.63
Long time Toronto city councillor, Kristyn Wong-Tam, just announced she’s leaving city politics to run for the NDP in this riding. With her high profile, this riding should be a slam dunk for the NDP now.
08/04/22 Chris N
99.224.69.142
Only a few hours after my last prediction, Kristyn Wong-Tam throws her hat in the ring for the NDP. This makes Toronto Centre a likely hold for Team Orange. In the very possible scenario that the NDP gets relegated to a third party in the legislature, I would still have Wong-Tam as the odds-on favourite to win this seat. Wong-Tam is bigger than either the NDP or Liberals in Toronto Centre. She is immensely popular, as shown back in 2018 when she defeated former Liberal Ontario cabinet monster George Smitherman by a big margin, thanks in part to a lot of traditional provincial and federal Liberal voters splitting her way.
08/04/22 MGK
206.172.18.194
I spoke too fast -- today the well-entrenched popular city councillor announced her candidacy for the NDP. I didn't see it coming -- maybe Chris N. did. But KWT's candidacy moves this riding back to TCTC -- I think whichever of the opposition parties emerges as the chief province-wide challenge to the PCs, will carry this riding, and probably the other downtown ridings too.
08/04/22 Scarborough Voter
65.94.99.185
Kristyn Wong-Tam announced she is leaving city council to run for the NDP here.
08/04/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
ndp appear poised to nominate Kristyn Wong Tam as there new candidate here , she is very well known in Toronto Centre as she has been there city councillor since 2010. I was skeptical the ndp could find anyone with enough profile to keep them in play here but she definitely keeps the ndp competitive in this riding and perhaps even boosts there chances in a couple of the nearby ridings at the same time.
07/04/22 Chris N
99.229.242.244
NDP incumbent Suze Morrison has decided she won’t run due to medical reasons. The lack of an NDP incumbent definitely gives the advantage to the Liberals. David Morris, the former Liberal candidate in 2018, has effectively been campaigning since 2017. With most of the ghosts from the Wynne era aside, Morris should find a friendlier reception at the door, in a riding with a very long history of Liberal representation in Queen’s Park. Unless the NDP runs a star candidate - like councillor Kristyn Wong-Tam - I think this is a Liberal gain in June.
06/04/22 PY
99.230.134.135
Suze Morrison was said to be an up-and-coming MPP, but I learned long ago from my watching MLB and the NHL that even the best prospects don't always pan out. Nevertheless, endometriosis isn't fun.
Longtime activist Nicki Ward could have had the potential to play spoiler had Morrison stayed in the race, but even against a lesser NDP candidate, I don't believe Ward will gather enough momentum now to be a significant factor.
In the end, constituents have since gotten over Wynne's concession last election and are likely going to return to the Liberal fold as a result.
06/04/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Suze Morrison just announced that she wasn’t going to run again. Its unclear who the ndp will now run here , not sure who would have the profile or personal appeal to keep them competitive here. whats interesting is this ridings seems to burn thru mp’s/mpp’s rather quickly . been safe liberal federally but had 5 different mp’s since 2000 and seen 3 different by elections ( 1 provincial and 2 federal since then) so no one seems to stay here that long . likely now the most challenging seat in 416 that went ndp in 2018 for them to hold this election.
05/04/22
69.165.143.166
The NDP MPP has dropped out due to health concerns.
The liberals will now be able to win this seat
05/04/22 MGK
206.172.18.194
Yesterday Suze Morrison quit the race for medical reasons. Unless NDP insiders had an inkling, they'll be scrambling to find a last-minute candidate. That gives the edge to the Liberals.
04/04/22 seasaw
69.157.38.158
Suze Morrison isn't running this time and with Suze gone, the Liberals should be able to pick up this riding.
.
29/03/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
David Morris didn't really do that well in '18 because...well, in *that* election, how could he? The deck was stacked against him and his party; in fact, one can argue that he *did* do well for a Lib non-incumbent (the longstanding local party machine helped), and well enough to serve as a sturdy foundation for his present run. Except that his party's technically in worse shape going into this election than going into '18 (y'know, seat count, OPS, and the available resources that come with all of that). And Suze Morrison not only electorally overachieved in '18, as a constituency rep she's proactively lived up to her overachievement ever since. The notion of TC being a "naturally" iron-grip Liberal seat was overstated, anyway (particularly after it ceded Rosedale)--maybe through Morrison, constituents are grasping the parameters of that erstwhile overstatement, "why didn't we do this before?", etc.
15/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
You would think Toronto Centre be an obviously liberal pick up although not sure about this election. Suze Morrison is now the ndp mpp and gained some profile so not an unknown ndp candidate that we?€™ve seen here in years past. Liberals also running David Morris again which seems odd as this seem like an obvious riding for a star candidate, which has been the case federally. He didnt really do that well here in 2018 . pc?€™s typically not much of a factor here and yet to nominate a candidate
06/03/22 seasaw
69.157.38.158
I expect this to be a dog fight between the Liberals and the NDP. The incumbent has a very good record, but it's ridings like this that the Liberals would have to win if they were to become relevant again. Though I think it will be close, I expect the Liberals to take this.
21/02/22
206.47.30.144
Now the Liberals have a new leader, I see the Liberals winning this seat back.
Especially, after everything that has happened during the pandemic.
02/10/21 Cal MacKinnon
72.39.155.140
The riding around the legislature has never had such an engaged MPP. Seriously Morrison is everywhere all the time. I don?€™t know her but when I see her she is engaging outside her base. Unless the Liberal are headed back to government I think she?€™ll win by a bigger margin.
20/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
Back in June 2018, in the lead up to the impending Wynne government defeat, I still felt the Liberals would keep Toronto Centre, or at the very least, placed second in a photo finish. However, they performed significantly worse in Toronto Centre than I had expected, given that this is a historical Liberal stronghold. Former Toronto Centre Liberal candidate David Morris will be running again. The Liberals have a very strong base in the riding, with a legacy of resources and cash that come with having high profile representatives like Bill Morneau, Glen Murray and Bob Rae as your local representative. NDP incumbent Suze Morrison is a solid constituency MPP, but lacks the high profile of her provincial and federal predecessors in the riding. If the Liberals can continue to improve in the polls, expect this to be one of the first Toronto ridings to flip red.



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