Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Scarborough-Rouge Park

Prediction Changed
2022-05-31 12:26:00

Constituency Profile



Abdullahi, Manal

Bressi, Christopher

De Silva, Priyan

Kerr, Gordon

Oliver, Matthew

Samuel, Felicia

Thanigasalam, Vijay

Vijay Thanigasalam

Population (2016):

Population (2011):102646

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

18,140 47.98%
9,290 24.57%
9,035 23.90%
856 2.26%
OTHERS 488 1.29%
Total Transposed 37,810
      Component Riding(s)

Pickering-Scarborough East
(45.60% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Scarborough-Rouge River
(40.50% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(13.90% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Gary Anandasangaree **
Bobby Singh
Kingsley Kwok
Jessica Hamilton
Dilano Sally
Mark Theodoru

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Gary Anandasangaree
Leslyn Lewis
KM Shanthikumar
Calvin Winter


30/05/2022 R.O.
Not typically a pc riding but Vijay Thanigasalam has been a reasonably good mpp. The ndp and liberals havenít run campaigns that good the voters that interested at this point. The advance voting is also over so many already voted . Ford seems to be more popular in Scarborough than downtown Toronto , Horwath has spent a lot of time here but seems to be having little impact and Del Duca seems to be spending more time in other Toronto ridings. perhaps this riding will be close like last election but a pc hold seems possible at this point.
31/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
Very strong Liberal area, though as the previous poster said, ethnic voting should keep it PC. Liberals and NDP will fight over the south of this riding, while Vijay will win the North pretty easily. I don't think it will be that close, PC's should be about 10% above the Liberals(with NDP way back).
30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Should be a close battle with the NDP again but I think the PC's will win here again.
12/05/2022 Miroslav Glavic
Vijay Thanigasalam is going to win.
What people do not understand: Ethnic voting.
Vijay Thanigasalam is Tamil, THERE IS A HUGE TAMIL POPULATION in Rouge-Park and North (Scarborough). Back when Scarborough North and Scarborough-Rouge Park were the same riding so current Scarborough-Rouge Park, the Tamil population is in the north end of the ward and they actually vote.
Ethnic voting means that many ethnic people will vote for one of their own if they see the name.
Same reason why Olivia Chow never became Olivia Layton.
Though it makes me think why Neethan Shan ran a million times and never really got elected most of those times.
There is a Tamil radio and newspaper in the area which I am sure will recommend/endorse Vijay Thanigasalam.
TLDR: Vijay Thanigasalam will win due to ethnic voting.
05/05/2022 Gary
This seat traditionally is can go to any of the 3 major parties. It went PC during the Harris years but was NDP before then. It went Liberal through the McGuinty years but their incumbent came in a distant 3rd last time out. The Liberal candidate's last ditch effort to convince voters that she (and not the NDP) was actually in contention probably cost the NDP the seat.
The Liberals are running a rookie this time out and their new leader has baggage from his lacklustre performance in previous Liberal governments. His invisibility since becoming leader doesn't help his case. While the Toronto Star and its publications will be pushing for the Liberals, this race is between the NDP and the PC incumbent. The Liberal candidate can only play spoiler.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
2018 was a surprisingly close-run thing where Vijay Thanigasalam of the PCs narrowly bested the NDP's Felicia Samuel. Both are back this time, but I think it'll be Manal Abdullahi of the Liberals who triumphs.
30/03/22 A.S.
A PC MPP from that part of Scarborough wasn't nearly the surprise that an NDP MPP from that part of Scarborough would have been--Felicia Samuel being yet another of those bittersweet NDP near-misses in an election filled with them (and unlike some of them, she was actually playing to win). In fact, '18's results were a little like an NDP equivalent to the inside-outness of Mitzie Hunter's next door; the Tories' best poll being in the onetime ethno-Dipper stronghold of Morningside Heights, and the NDP pulling ahead in parts of West Hill and West Rouge which once might have been a little Reform/Alliancey. The big peril ahead this time, as elsewhere: NDP & Lib in potential mutual cancellation. and not even a heartbreaker like in '18.
14/03/22 R.O.
Vijay Thanigasalam was first elected here in 2018 which was a surprise to many to see a pc mpp from this part of Scarborough. Very safe liberal seat federally but tough to get a feel for provincially. The ndp candidate from 2018 Felicia Samuel is also running again. Liberals running a new candidate Manal Abdullahi. The current mpp is relatively young and new to politics but still a good fit for this riding.
31/05/21 Chris N
Former NDP candidate Felicia Samuel is running again in 2022, setting up a rematch between her and Thanigasalam. The Liberals placed a distant third in 2018, but with better polling three years later, I anticipate that they will be more competitive. This could be an exciting three-way race.

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