Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-22 18:45:49

Constituency Profile


Di Iorio, Nicola

Filato, Rosannie

Fournier, Jean Philippe

Gendron, Steeve

Malek, Arezki

Miscione, Melissa

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1780.48%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (202/225 polls, 94.83% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Massimo Pacetti

   (9/225 polls, 3.64% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Maria Mourani

   (14/225 polls, 1.53% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet


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15 09 15 A.S.
It sounds as if Mulcair out-Crush's 2011's Orange Crush, Filato's the perfect woman for the job of *finally* smashing the seat's undying loyalty to the Liberals through crime and graft and corruption and sexual harassment and what have you. But that's a *really* big if--and with Di Iorio looking squeaky clean by the riding's historical standards, maybe Grit status quo isn't such a bad thing, either...
15 09 10 Pierre-Paul
So far NDP candidate Rosannie Filato is the only candidate with signs on private properties. The low rent area around Pie-IX blvd will go heavily for the NDP and the St-Leonard portion of the riding is losing its Italian character with heavy immigration from the Maghreb. Joey Saputo's support for Nicola Di Iorio may count among the Italians, but the rest of the riding is leaning NDP, and among the immigrants who came here after 1984, the Trudeau name doesn't carry any weight. I will guess that when it's all counted, Di Iorio will take it, but the margin of victory will be razor thin.
15 07 08 Full
This one's an easily hold for the Liberals. Gagliano held this riding with little challenge at the height of his corruption/Mafia scandals and it has survived Tory, BQ, and NDP landslides with little trouble.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
This riding has had a string of questionable MPs, but this time the LPC has chosen a respected member of the community who is being billed a star candidate. This is a safe Liberal seat and should have no difficulty staying Liberal.
15 05 17 Marco Ricci
The Globe & Mail reported this weekend that the next Liberal candidate for Saint Léonard-Saint-Michel will probably be lawyer Nicola Di Iorio.
Di Iorio is a lawyer who is known in Québec for his fight against drunk driving, and he was endorsed by the president of the Italian-Canadian Community Foundation at his campaign launch at the Leonardo da Vinci Centre.
I agree with the other posts here that the Italian community will likely stay with the Liberals for the immediate future. The Trudeau name also still has some resonance among Italians and older Italians voted for Pierre Trudeau.
The one cautionary note is that although this riding will probably vote Liberal, the recent election in Alberta sent a message to politicians that parties can't take support for granted. The NDP finished a strong 2nd in this riding in the Layton wave and have also nominated an Italian candidate who is a lawyer. While the odds are against the NDP here, if they remain strong in Québec, they can still get a decent result.
15 03 28 monkey
With Massimo Pacetti not running, no risk of vote splitting so easy Liberal win. While the NDP has made some inroads last time amongst Allophones, traditionally they've voted heavily Liberal so while I don't expect them to win with the margins Alfonso Gagliano did in 2000, I expect the win to be a comfortable one.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
This riding is TCTC? C'mon, really? This riding stayed faithfully Liberal during the onslaught of the BQ in the early 90's, through to the sponsorship scandal. It then stayed true to the Liberals with the NDP onslaught in 2011. Yes there's bad press with Pacetti but there was bad press from Gagliano and the Liberals won the byelection with over 80% of the vote. Never mind that the NDP vote had collapsed amongst non-francophones in Quebec. Solid Liberal hold.
15 03 19 JFBreton
Vingt-quatre heures en politique, c'est parfois long. Massimo Pacetti, définitivement expulsé du caucus libéral, a annoncé par communiqué qu'il ne se représentait pas en octobre 2015. Ce qui ouvre la voie à l'élection d'un nouveau député libéral dans ce château-fort de Montréal qui a résisté à la vague orange de 2011.
15 03 18 JFBreton
Il semble que le député Massimo Pacetti sera définitivement exclu du caucus libéral. Se représentera-t-il? Divisera-t-il le vote libéral? Difficile de prévoir à ce moment-ci, même si une victoire libérale demeure le scénario le plus réaliste dans ce château-fort.

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