Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-04-25 12:22:21

Constituency Profile


Dieleman, Suzanna

Hamadi, Ali

Mathyssen, Irene

Peloza, Matthew

Ramal, Khalil

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 5811.22%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (192/221 polls, 89.19% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Irene Mathyssen

   London North Centre
   (19/221 polls, 7.30% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Susan Truppe

   (10/221 polls, 3.51% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Joe Preston


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15 10 04 Dr. Bear
Giving this to Matheyssen now. While Liberal support is robust in Ontario (at the moment), I think she is too well established to be turfed, unless there is a full-on NDP collase. Ramal will make the race interesting and I suspect we'll see the Liberals within 10 points of the NDP on e-day.
15 10 01 prognosticator15
Khalil Ramal will increase Liberal vote here, based on name recognition, but it will not be enough to beat Mathyssen. She now has established network of supporters, good campaign, and the riding border changes make it slightly more NDP-leaning (much like the neighboring large and oddly shaped Elgin riding is more Conservative now, with addition of more agricultural land around London). Blue-collar workers who lost jobs recently tend to concentrate in this riding and the anger may often be directed at the government of the day, whether properly or not. NDP is now an established force in London, more so than even five years ago, and competitive in all three urban ridings. Mathyssen is not particularly popular, but demographics favor NDP. I expect Cons to receive about the same number of votes as last time, and their support is not collapsing, with a good third of the riding strongly anti-NDP, but here they need to do much better than in 2011 to win, and I cannot see where the extra Cons support may be coming from.
15 08 23 A.S.
Let's not forget that Ramal was something of a never-cracking-40% opposition-split 'accidental MPP', so any so-called star-candidacy about him comes by default--don't be surprised if he's third (or, *would be* third but for Duffygate). Besides, Mathyssen's now firmly pushed away the 'NDP can't win' stigma that allowed Ramal to come up through the middle in the first place--and who'd a thunk it a third of a century ago, when London seats were commonly thought of as Lib-Tory swingers with an absolute logical NDP ceiling of 25% or so...
15 08 20 R.O.
Even with the liberals running a former mpp Khalil Ramal I'd be surprised if the ndp didn't hold onto this one as Irene Mathyssen has now held the riding since 2006 . its not a traditional ndp riding but one they seem to have found support in.
15 08 18 jeff316
Do you remember that warm, friendly uncle you adored as a little kid? The one that slips you chocolates and lets you win at table hockey and finds quarters behind your ear? The one that was almost most excited to see YOU? Do you remember how your perception of him changed as you grew up? How the shtick got old, and then a bit annoying, and then insulting? And then how as an adult you just felt sad, mourning the person you knew, wishing you didn't know that is all this guy has to offer, feeling bad that this guy you adored is as deep as a cookie-sheet?
In political terms, that is Kalil Ramal. Maybe expectations were too high, but locally Ramal was such a disappointment to both his electors and his party. In the end, he was given almost no responsibilities by the center and don't get insiders started on the strain this put on other local MPPs. London-Fanshawe elects Teresa Armstrong provincially, and she's no top NDPer either, so Mathyssen will hold this without a scare.
15 08 19 SWL
This one is no contest. Mathyssen will be easily re-elected. She won with a majority last time around (over 50% of the vote). Three weeks in and there are Mathyssen signs in every neighbourhood, while you'd be hard pressed to find another sign on a private lawn. Mathyssen's reputation for community focused service is well known, and as parliament wrapped up for the summer she achieved a victory from the opposition benches that saw the tax removed from feminine hygiene products. Add to that Liberal candidate Ramal's well known social conservative views and his 8 years as a rubber stamp for the McGuinty Liberals agenda, won't serve him well. Expect Mathyssen to widen her margin of victory this time.
15 03 29 Jason
Irene Mathyssen is popular enough to hold this seat from a challenge with former Liberal MPP Khalil Ramal.
This riding leans NDP both federally and provincially. The Liberals fared poorly as early as the 2008 election when they got only 19% of the vote.
Ramal should fare better than previous Liberals, but it should be noted that Ramal himself was handily defeated in the 2011 provincial election.
15 03 29 Mr. Dave
Irene Mathyssen has seen her margins of victory go from 1000 in the 2006 election to 7200 in the 2011 election, and provincially the riding overwhelmingly went NDP in the last Ontario election.
She won't have any problems in winning a fourth term here.
15 03 26 ML
Originally I would have put this in the safe NDP category but former Liberal MPP Khalil Ramal recently won the Liberal nomination which might make it more competitive.
15 03 26 Dr. Bear
I am going to tentatively say TCTC. In the past I would have given this to Mathyssen and be done with it. However the Liberals have nominated the former MPP. The nomination meeting was quite busy, suggesting a lot of interest in this race. Even the other potential candidate, Peter Mancini, had election experience, having bested Mathyssen in a provincial race in the 90's (though lost out to the PC candidate). Having commented on the candidates and the apparent interest in this race, I get the impression that the Liberals are not fully focused on SW Ontario. Maybe they were spooked by the abysmal performance of their provincial cousins last year and are choosing to focus on the GTA. I think they are missing an opportunity to win seats in London and Windsor. I'd have expected London North Center and London West to have tougher nomination battles than what happened here.

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