Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:15:56

Constituency Profile


Blaikie, Daniel

Parke, Kim

Richardson-Lipon, Andrea

Toet, Lawrence

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 70.02%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (181/190 polls, 96.62% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Lawrence Toet

   Kildonan-St. Paul
   (7/190 polls, 3.28% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Joy Smith

   Saint Boniface
   (2/190 polls, 0.10% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Shelly Glover


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15 10 18 Marco Ricci
I don't think there will be a shift to the NDP because of a minor e-mail issue of a Liberal staffer most people have never heard of. This weekend's polls actually seem to be showing a decrease in NDP support as more voters move to the Liberals, and some to the Conservatives.
What will determine this riding is whether the increased Liberal vote in Manitoba takes more away from the Conservatives or NDP.
The NDP can win here if the Liberals take more away from the Conservatives, but if the NDP vote isn't high enough, it's possible that the Conservatives could hold on.
15 10 18 Jeff S
The Blakie name should be good for a couple of hundred votes. Which will be the margin of victory.
15 10 16 Elizabeth
This is close, but I am calling it NDP. The liberal vote will have a last minute shift to the NDP because of the new email scandel with the Liberals Co-Chair. This is not traditionally a conservative riding and it will not hold up when the conservatives are struggling to even get a minority.
15 10 13 DK
Not at all Craig. When I posted, those numbers were the ones that were erroneously reported by the news program I was watching, basically flipping the Liberal and NDP support. Subsequently I found the real numbers as you posted them. I didn't bother to correct. As for looking for a negative response, since that poll was commissioned by LeadNow I'd suspect any negativity in the poll if there is any (I haven't seen the questions asked) was probably toward the Conservative candidate.
Agree that the race is close, but I stand by my call and will duly eat my crow if I'm wrong. :)
15 10 12 Craig Hubley
September 20th Environics poll says 39 Con, 37 NDP, 20 Lib. No sign of any reputable poll claiming what the previous poster said, likely a 'push' poll that prompts for a negative response for the NDP candidate. A joke.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015_by_constituency lists the reputable polls. These show a 2 point drop for the Greens, 6 to 4, likely to drop more to shore up the NDP in a tight NDP vs Con race.
15 09 24 DK
I'm going to change over from TCTC and just call this Conservative now. The latest poll released yesterday for this riding shows Toet comfortably in first place with 39%, with Richardson-Lipon second with 30% and Blaikie third with only 20%. Now I think this bears out further what I argued against the previous poll from August, that it seems a bit suspect but if you put your stock in polling then this is a good sign for the Tories here. Again, I'm not sure I draw the same conclusion about the strength of Liberal support in this riding. If there is that much Liberal support they sure aren't participating in the sign war at all.
15 09 16 Former Transcona Resident
Know this riding well, having lived there many years, and being one of the lucky ones who now does not. From afar, the TCTC rating seems at first glance best because: (a) although this was an NDP stronghold, that was entirely due to the presence of Bill Blaikie, a once popular local boy who nearly beat Jack Layton for the leadership of the NDP (the NDP have benefited from who they ultimately chose); (b) as soon as Blaikie was gone, the riding shifted to Conservative; (c) historically, the Conservatives did poorly, as everyone's 2nd choice was the Liberals; (d) but the demographics have changed there substantially so that most voters will either split NDP or Conservative; (e) the NDP is generally unpopular; but, (f) they have found another person named 'Blaikie' to run for them, an apparently nice person if not necessarily the brightest bulb in the room (he's an electrician, pardon the pun). The Blaikie name, like the father and children, carries a lot of weight in Transcona. That swings the balance in favbour of the NDP, hence the NDP choice. The pensions the Cdn taxpayer have and likely will give that family, yikes.
15 09 15 DK
I've seen the poll as well, I'm just not altogether convinced by it given what I am seeing around the riding. That poll has the Liberal candidate in second place and I just don't put any stock in that. That isn't reality as far as I'm concerned. Richardson-Lipon is a distant, distant 3rd in the sign war in every area of the riding. This is a two-horse race between Blaikie and Toet. I will be surprised if the Liberals are a factor in this race beyond stealing a few votes from both sides (although that vote splitting may play a role for the other two's chances).
I won't be shocked if Blaikie wins, but I also am still leaning toward Toet retaining the seat. Either way, I think this is closer then pollsters and pundits are giving it credit for. TCTC
15 09 06 Marco Ricci
DK, I think the reason why some projections are giving this riding to the NDP is because although the NDP doesn't have great numbers in Manitoba (trailing both the Conservatives & the Liberals in current Federal polls), the increase in Liberal support is coming mainly at the expense of the Conservatives, so it may allow the NDP to win this riding back based on a 'split'.
If NDP numbers drop further by the time of October, it's possible that they could lose their chance here, but for now, EPP is in the same ballpark as 308 (which also currently shows an NDP win) and last month's Environics riding poll showing an NDP lead.
15 09 05 A.S.
Being an 'accidental' HarperCon MP from 2011 certainly isn't a good place to be when you invite 'Lawrence Twit' jokes through sending silly terrorism-paranoia-baiting flyers--though that was long enough ago for the Con camp to cross forgive-and-forget fingers, I guess. Still, if Blaikie Jr can manage this much of a lead now, imagine how he'd do *without* the Selinger-government albatross...
15 08 31 DK
I maintain that the predictors have called this riding NDP far too early, much like they did erroneously in 2011 might I add. If you can't see your way to call this Conservative as I said earlier at very least it should be TCTC.
We're 4 weeks into the campaign and in Transcona I would bet that Toet signs outnumber Blaikie signs by between 5 and 10 to 1. I drove a street yesterday that had 12 Toet signs and 0 Blaikie's. Elmwood might be a different story but even there on the streets I've seen it looks 1 to 1.
This has been called far too early and I still feel like this could be a Conservative hold.
15 08 20 Garth
Recent Environics riding-specific poll shows the NDP ahead of the Conservatives by 9%. The Liberals are in third place, but with a sharply increased vote from 2011.
15 08 21 Balon
According to mid-August poll in this riding by Environs for Leadnow, NDP are comfortably ahead: NDP 39%, CPC 30%, LPC 25%, Green 6%.
15 08 20
An Environics poll of over 500 people in this riding for Leadnow shows the NDP leading by 9% among decided voters:
NDP 39%
CPC 30%
LPC 24%
15 08 11 Marco Ricci
The NDP has the disadvantage of being weighed down to some extent by the unpopularity of the Selinger Government. A June 2015 Probe poll for Manitoba had the Pallister PC's at 46% and the Selinger NDP in a distant 2nd at 29% -- (17 points behind). That means that the Federal NDP could be affected.
Reporter David Akin wrote a piece last month saying the Conservatives are at risk of losing this riding, but that they aren't giving up on it yet. They arranged for CPC MP Lawrence Toet to hand out a series of spending cheques in an effort to improve his chances:
We may not know what happens here until later this Fall.
15 08 05 2015
The Liberals seem to be soaring compared to last time in Winnipeg and in this riding that means an NDP win, given the Conservatives fall in the polls and the NDP's recent gains.
15 08 05 RJC
This riding could be an interesting test of whether the unpopularity of the provincial NDP government will be enough to sink Team Mulcair's chances in Manitoba, as some suggest it will; given the current national swings from 2011, this should really go back into the NDP column (even putting aside any extra little boost Blaikie might get for, well, being a Blaikie).
15 08 05 BJ
Despite my previous post predicting an NDP win, I now think the Conservatives have a good shot, given the unpopularity of the NDP in Manitoba. Also, the demographics of the riding are changing with more middle class families that don't automatically vote NDP. In the past, on day one of an election campaign, Hespeler would have 30 NDP signs up on the first day - as of today - there are 3.
15 07 23 dk
Silly to conclude this will go NDP just because Daniel Blaikie is running. Daniel isn't Bill and the demographics of this riding continue to change from what it traditionally used to be. Support for Toet is pretty strong in the area I live in and provincial support for the NDP is down. Can easily see PC holding this riding. I like to think my fellow constituents put more thought in their vote than the name on the ballot.
15 07 16 R.O.
Well I don't disagree this riding is a potential area the ndp could make gains in . its still a Manitoba riding and conservatives are going to remain competitive in the west . and having an incumbent mp in Lawrence Toet running for re-election it be foolish to suggest the ndp are a given at this point. The Blaike name may prove to benefit the ndp but the mp who lost Jim Maloway was still well known and lost the riding during an election when ndp was surging across the country . so I find the riding rather tough to predict
15 04 12 Marco Ricci
Stevo makes a valid point that reflects what I said below -- being the child of a former MP does not guarantee that a party will win the seat. We've seen this in other ridings across the country (eg. Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, where Dan Boudria, son of long-term Liberal MP Don Boudria, was unsuccessful against the Conservatives).
The Blaikie name has some popularity in Manitoba, but it is not a guarantee, as we saw with Rebecca Blaikie losing in Winnipeg North in 2011. That was a different riding, but it shows that a family name can't overcome all circumstances.
In the case of this riding, the Blaikie name is well-known, but Bill Blaikie has been retired from politics for several years now, and the NDP is currently running 3rd in the Federal polls. Yesterday's EKOS poll (April 10, 2015) has Manitoba at 47% CPC, 30% LPC & 15% NDP.
So we need to wait until later this year to see what the numbers are for this province before knowing what will happen here.
15 04 05 Stevo
I'd be surprised if enough people in this urban/suburban riding cared that the NDP candidate is the son of a former MP to tip the scales based on that alone? The wild card in this riding, as with many others, is from where the Liberals will increase their support. Will they draw more from those who voted Conservative in 2011, or NDP? Or will they simply gain back Liberals who stayed home in 2011, thus not having any impact on the two-way NDP-Conservative race? Local candidate popularity or pedigree isn't likely to play a role.
15 03 29 monkey
Considering the popularity of the Blaikie name, normally this would be an easy NDP win. However the one barrier is the provincial NDP is wildly unpopular and that will probably hurt their counterparts. While I don't expect many traditional NDP supporters to go over to the Conservatives, I could see several going over the Liberals thus costing them the riding (the Liberals are too weak to pull this off). I do however expect once the NDP is turfed provincially, this will go back to the NDP again federally as it usually does.
15 03 26 Locksley
I was told by someone that this is a three-way race, while I initially (and still scoff at the idea) perhaps the great unpopularity of the NDP in Manitoba holds true here. The curse of the Blaikie offspring strikes again, a split in the vote hands this back to Toet.
15 03 26 Marco Ricci
It's too soon to predict that Blaikie will win here until we get closer to the election. 1) Having the son of a former MP does not always guarantee that a party will win. The Liberals tried to hold onto Glengarry-Prescott-Russell in Ontario after Don Boudria retired by running his son, but he lost. 2) Blaikie probably needs some help in the numbers. The NDP is down in Manitoba, both provincially and federally. If it does not recover by October, the Conservatives may hold on here.
15 03 25 BJ
Conservatives won due to collapse of Liberal vote last time. With a Blaikie running, easy NDP win.
15 03 25 Mr. Dave
Having the Blaikie name on the ballot in this riding gives the NDP the edge it will need to take this seat back from the Conservatives.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Toet's recent media notoriety can't help the CPC here. I expect a close race but the NDP will be focusing hard on taking this one back. As well, Bill Blaikie's son is running for them...they'll be working hard to win this.
15 03 22 Brian A
Bill's son isn't going to win this riding...and Winnipeg isn't cold in the winter time.

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